After Predicting $400K Bitcoin, Guggenheim Now Sees a Crash to $8K

CryptoPotatoDipublikasikan tanggal 2022-05-24Terakhir diperbarui pada 2022-05-24

Abstrak

The company’s CIO has had little success with his previous BTC predictions, but the latest one sees the asset falling another 70%.

With the price of bitcoin currently below $30,000, Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer of global investment giant Guggenheim Partners, believes BTC’s value could further dip to $8,000.

Bitcoin Price Could Bottom at $8,000

Minerd made the bearish prediction on Monday (May 23, 2022), during an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box at the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

According to the Guggenheim executive, bitcoin’s constant slip below the $30,000 level could cause the cryptocurrency to fall to $8,000, which signals a fall of more than 70%. Minerd said:

“When you break below 30,000 [dollars] consistently, 8,000 [dollars] is the ultimate bottom, so I think we have a lot more room to the downside, especially with the Fed being restrictive”.

According to a recent report by CryptoPotato, bitcoin has continued to close the weekly candle in red for eight consecutive weeks. The cryptocurrency’s price decline has led to the BTC Fear and Greed Index to remain at “extreme fear.”

Meanwhile, this is not the first time the Guggenheim CIO has predicted bitcoin’s price dip. Back in July 2021, Minerd said that BTC could plunge to $15,000. In April of the same year, the executive predicted bitcoin’s price could correct to $20,000, at the time when the asset was at $65,000, before retracing to around $55,000.

However, Minerd earlier made bullish predictions stating that bitcoin could reach between $400,000 and $600,000. It’s worth noting that he has seen little-to-no success with his previous forecasts.

MicroStrategy CEO and founder Michael Saylor, on the other hand, continues to make bold predictions for bitcoin despite the crypto price descent. According to Saylor, who has remained unfazed in the ongoing cryptocurrency market bloodbath, he expects BTC to “go into the millions.”

No Dominant Player in Crypto Yet

Despite the Guggenheim CIO’s recent bearish BTC price prediction, the executive said that only bitcoin and ethereum, two of the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, will survive long term. Minerd noted that most crypto assets are “junk” rather than currencies.

Even with BTC and ETH dominating the market, the CIO believes that crypto is yet to have a dominant player. Minerd went on to add that there is no “right prototype yet for crypto.”

According to the executive, the ideal cryptocurrency will need to be a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account. However, Minerd believes most of the existing crypto tokens fail to pass any of the criteria.

Bacaan Terkait

Menurunkan Ekspektasi untuk Bull Market Bitcoin Berikutnya

Artikel ini membahas penurunan ekspektasi penulis terhadap potensi kenaikan harga Bitcoin (BTC) pada siklus bull market berikutnya. Penulis, Alex Xu, yang sebelumnya memegang BTC sebagai aset terbesarnya, telah mengurangi porsi BTC dari full menjadi sekitar 30% pada kisaran harga $100.000-$120.000, dan kembali mengurangi di level $78.000-$79.000. Alasan utama penurunan ekspektasi ini adalah: 1. **Energi Penggerak yang Melemah:** Narasi adopsi BTC yang mendorong kenaikan signifikan di siklus sebelumnya (dari aset niche hingga institusi besar via ETF) sulit terulang. Langkah berikutnya, seperti masuknya BTC ke dalam cadangan bank sentral negara maju, dianggap sangat sulit tercapai dalam 2-3 tahun ke depan. 2. **Biaya Peluang Pribadi:** Penulis menemukan peluang investasi yang lebih menarik di perusahaan-perusahaan lain. 3. **Dampak Resesi Industri Kripto:** Menyusutnya industri kripto secara keseluruhan (banyak model bisnis seperti SocialFi dan GameFi terbukti gagal) dapat memperlambat pertumbuhan basis pemegang BTC. 4. **Biaya Pendanaan Pembeli Utama:** Perusahaan pembeli BTC terbesar, Stratis, menghadapi kenaikan biaya pendanaan yang memberatkan, yang dapat mengurangi kecepatan pembeliannya dan memberi tekanan jual. 5. **Pesaing Baru untuk "Emas Digital":** Hadirnya "tokenized gold" (emas yang ditokenisasi) menawarkan keunggulan yang mirip dengan BTC (seperti dapat dibagi dan dipindahkan) sehingga menjadi pesaing serius. 6. **Masalah Anggaran Keamanan:** Imbalan miner yang terus berkurang pasca halving menimbulkan kekhawatiran tentang keamanan jaringan, sementara upaya mencari sumber fee baru seperti ordinals dan L2 dinilai gagal. Penulis menyatakan tetap memegang BTC sebagai aset besar dan terbuka untuk membeli kembali jika alasannya tidak lagi relevan atau muncul faktor positif baru, meski siap menerima jika harganya sudah terlalu tinggi untuk dibeli kembali.

marsbit04/27 02:47

Menurunkan Ekspektasi untuk Bull Market Bitcoin Berikutnya

marsbit04/27 02:47

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片