Ethereum vs. Bitcoin – Why 2026 could mark ETH’s comeback

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-12Last updated on 2025-12-12

Abstract

As 2025 concludes, investors are looking ahead to 2026, with a particular focus on the underperforming altcoin market. Historically, Ethereum (ETH) leading the market often triggers an altcoin rally, and early signs of this rotation are emerging. After trending down against Bitcoin (BTC) since mid-Q2, the ETH/BTC pair is potentially bottoming around 0.30 in late-Q4, signaling a possible reversal. This is supported by Ethereum's rising dominance (ETH.D), which is approaching 13% resistance, while Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) has been choppy below 60%. Despite the overall fragile market and Bitcoin's struggle to recover from a recent 30% crash, Ethereum has shown strength, jumping 15% in three weeks compared to Bitcoin's 7%. This outperformance, more than double the capital inflow, is backed by significant whale activity, including a notable $140 million shift from BTC to ETH. Furthermore, increasing institutional adoption, with nine new partnerships bringing ETH into wider use, suggests this rotation is a strategic, Ethereum-led move rather than a market fluke, setting a solid foundation for ETH's potential comeback against BTC in 2026.

As 2025 winds down, investors are already eyeing 2026.

The focus is on the altcoin market, which underperformed this year. Historically, when Ethereum [ETH] leads, it often kicks off an altcoin rally. Notably, it looks like we’re starting to see signs of that rotation.

Since mid-Q2, ETH has been trending down against Bitcoin [BTC], pushing the Altcoin Season Index down to 33. But late-Q4 looks promising, with ETH/BTC potentially bottoming around 0.30, signaling a possible reversal.

Backing this up, Ethereum dominance [ETH.D] is on the move.

Weekly, ETH.D has already posted three higher highs, closing in on 13% resistance. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance [BTC.D] has been chopping below 60% over the same period, reinforcing the shift toward alts.

Sure, the Altcoin Season Index hasn’t caught up yet.

However, with ETH’s Q4 ROI now nearing BTC’s -18% bleed, is this rotation more Ethereum-led than market-led? Could this be an early hint of where strategic investors are heading in 2026?

Ethereum catalysts driving early market rotation

The market is still fragile, and support levels remain at risk.

BTC, for example, is still trying to recover from the crash two months ago that knocked it down 30%. Despite some “dip-buying”, BTC hasn’t fully bounced back, showing that caution is still dominating sentiment.

Against this backdrop, Ethereum’s weekly run against Bitcoin could signal that smart money is rotating. Backing this up, a whale sold $132.5 million in BTC and scooped up $140.2 million in ETH over the past two weeks.

Notably, the rotation is already showing in price action as well.

Ethereum has jumped roughly 15% over the past three weeks, outpacing Bitcoin’s 7% move in the same stretch. That’s more than 2x the capital flowing into ETH, clearly backed by whale rotation, as we saw above.

Add in institutional adoption ramping up, with nine new partnerships bringing ETH into mainstream use, and this rotation looks far from a fluke. Instead, it is shaping up as a solid base for ETH’s 2026 run versus BTC.

Final Thoughts

Ethereum has been trending down against Bitcoin since mid-Q2, but late-Q4 shows signs of reversal.
Whale activity and institutional partnerships highlight a rotation that’s more Ethereum-led, setting a solid base for ETH’s 2026 run vs. BTC.

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