Analysis: The next Federal Reserve Chairman will face extreme stress tests, with frequent contradictions arising between interest rate cuts, tariffs, and inflation.

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next Federal Reserve chairman under U.S. President Trump is already facing a series of daunting tasks: dealing with cautious financial markets, hard-to-interpret economic indicators, the large and complex factional struggles within the central bank, and a tough president who will devote much energy this year to demands for interest rate cuts. But as the final candidate is being locked in, Trump has further intensified the tense situation the Fed chairman successor Powell will face—he is pushing policies that may exacerbate inflation while still pressuring the Fed to declare victory over soaring prices. Trump is also insisting on implementing tariff policies that have raised the prices of a range of goods, and the U.S. will engage in potentially high-risk trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico next year. These dynamics will continue to test the Fed's core theory—that tariffs only cause a one-time price increase rather than triggering a more troublesome inflation cycle. The mission of the next Fed chairman is increasingly precarious, and whoever takes over will find it difficult to handle these tensions, even Trump’s longtime advisor and currently considered the frontrunner, Hassett, is no exception. The extent to which an authoritative Fed chairman's statements can align with the Trump administration’s political propaganda may be limited. To cut rates, claim the economy is performing well, and deny that inflation is driven by tariffs—these three claims are obviously contradictory.

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