crypto analysis
08/07 15:22
BTC is heading into its strongest seasonal stretch
BTC is heading into its strongest seasonal stretch. But flipping $125K into support and getting help from Q4 macro tailwinds are key for a shot at $200k.
Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s [BTC] strongest quarter.
It has clocked in an average return of 85.4% and high hit rate on double-digit rallies. And that’s not just random. Fed easing cycles have consistently fueled risk assets, and BTC has been a major beneficiary.
Now, markets are repricing for a 50bps rate cut in September, even with inflation still sticky. That’s a clear tilt toward a risk-on posture. If the Fed delivers, prior Q4 flows suggest a push toward $200K by year-end.
That would mean tacking on another $86K in upside from the current spot.
Technically, BTC looks to be building a base between $110K–$115K. Supporting that, ETF flows have flipped positive, pulling in $90 million in net inflows after bleeding $1.5 billion over the prior four days.
That said, seasonality could limit near-term upside. August and September have been dead zones for BTC, averaging flat to negative returns. If that trend holds, a $125K breakout in the next 60 days might be premature.
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