BTC is heading into its strongest seasonal stretch. But flipping $125K into support and getting help from Q4 macro tailwinds are key for a shot at $200k.

Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s [BTC] strongest quarter.

It has clocked in an average return of 85.4% and high hit rate on double-digit rallies. And that’s not just random. Fed easing cycles have consistently fueled risk assets, and BTC has been a major beneficiary.

Now, markets are repricing for a 50bps rate cut in September, even with inflation still sticky. That’s a clear tilt toward a risk-on posture. If the Fed delivers, prior Q4 flows suggest a push toward $200K by year-end.