Bitcoin should hold $100K as Q3 seasonality predicts sideways trading

Bitcoin may hold above $100,000 throughout summer, but seasonal trading data suggests minimal upside in Q3.

• Analysts say Bitcoin is trading more like a risk asset than a safe haven like gold, undermining its “digital gold” narrative.

• A potential Fed rate cut in July may boost Bitcoin, but historical data shows Q3 tends to be flat, with only a 1% median return from June to September.

Bitcoin 

BTC

$103,268

 is having a lackluster week, but this could change if the crypto asset follows the trajectory of the global money supply. Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, Jurrien Timmer, said that gold prices could catch a bid after the global money supply hit an 8.5% year-on-year increase, driven by geopolitical tensions. However, Bitcoin’s volatile nature might exhibit a contrasting outlook. 

Markets analyst Tony Sycamore conveyed a similar outlook for Bitcoin, stating that BTC trades more as a risk asset like US equities rather than a safe-haven asset like gold in 2025.

Likewise, LVRG research director Nick Ruck told Cointelegraph that BTC’s “digital gold” narrative is losing steam, with most traders focusing on short-term volatility rather than opting for BTC as a risk-adjusted asset.