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06/14 03:42

JPMorgan issues warning on oil prices JPMorgan

JPMorgan issues warning on oil prices

JPMorgan has drastically lowered its oil price forecast for 2026, expecting the value to fall to $58 per barrel.

The revision signals growing concern about the breakdown of global cooperation among producers and the changing geopolitical dynamics that are reshaping the energy landscape.

One of the main factors behind the expected decline is Brazil's refusal to commit to formal production cuts within OPEC+. Although Brazil remains informally affiliated with the group, its rapid oil production growth and its decision to chart its own course threaten to undermine efforts to manage global supply.

Within OPEC itself, unity is fraying. Saudi Arabia is facing resistance from member states that prioritize their own revenue needs over collective agreements. This internal tension could trigger a new period of volatility in oil markets as early as next year.

Natasha Kaneva, chief commodities strategist at JPMorgan, also pointed to changes in U.S. economic policy that may provide only limited support for prices. Unlike other markets, oil does not enjoy political support in Washington, where efforts remain focused on containing inflation through lower energy prices.

Meanwhile, the ongoing efforts by the BRICS bloc to reduce their dependence on the US dollar in oil trade add another layer of uncertainty. These steps towards de-dollarization could further disrupt traditional price structures and lead to new instability.

All signs point to the market entering a more unpredictable phase. Given fragmented alliances and diverging national interests, JPMorgan’s updated forecast suggests that the days of coordinated price controls may be behind us.

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