Bit360

06/10 08:27

Altcoin season is upon us – will this cycle

Altcoin season is upon us – will this cycle be different?

Crypto analyst Miles Deutsche has shared a new forecast for the unpredictable altcoin season, claiming that while a breakout is possible, it will not resemble the explosive upswings of previous market cycles.

Deutscher claims to have created an AI-based model called the Altcoin Rally Score (ARS) to help determine when a real rally for altcoins could begin. After comparing it to previous bull markets, the model suggests that conditions in this cycle are fundamentally different from those in 2017 or 2021.

In previous cycles, altcoins have surged by thousands of percent. But with the exception of brief spikes in April and late last year, most have underperformed Bitcoin. The expert attributes this to several factors: Tighter monetary policy, institutional preference for Bitcoin, Ethereum’s struggle to outperform BTC, and waning interest from retail investors following a series of scandals.

His ARS model tracks four indicators: A decline in the dominance of the leading cryptocurrency, a breakout in the ETH/BTC ratio, a rise in the altcoin index, and improving retail sentiment and liquidity. None of them are fully consistent yet.

Even when that happens, Deutscher expects a shorter and more selective rally focused on specific sectors due to limited liquidity and an oversupply of new altcoins. In short, the next altcoin season could come quietly and not resemble the previous one.

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