Arthur Hayes' Latest Podcast: Got the Script for Next Year, Already Fired 90% of the Bullets
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, shares his macro outlook and investment strategy in a recent podcast. He argues that the market is waiting for a "magic word like QE" from the Fed, but it won't come in its traditional form. Instead, he predicts a rebranded version of money printing called "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) will provide liquidity, with its full impact being recognized by the market around March next year, leading to a significant asset price recovery.
Hayes is heavily invested, having deployed 90% of his capital, and remains confident in Bitcoin's long-term rise, reiterating a $250,000 price target for 2026. He warns against shorting AI-related stocks like NVIDIA, calling it a trap. For altcoins, he sees the next major narrative in privacy and ZK technologies, with Zcash (ZEC) as a current holding, though he acknowledges regulatory hurdles for privacy coins. He highlights Ethena (ENA) as one of his most successful and confident bets, expecting a sharp rally as monetary conditions ease.
Hayes dismisses the idea that "altseason" is missing, stating it's always happening with new trends, and criticizes those who are too risk-averse to participate. The most dangerous macro narrative, in his view, is the belief that central banks will tighten policy. His key advice is to avoid excessive leverage and stop blaming market makers for price movements.
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