Bitcoin is moving almost in sync with gold. Bitfinex analysts say this correlation has reached a level that is consistently being broken in the course of previous observations.
The exchange's argument is based on the idea that investors concerned about government debt and loose monetary policy view metals and cryptocurrencies as a safe haven for their funds.
Delta-Thermo Discharge Multiplier is 2.03, Triggering at 2.5x
In a message dated August 28, 2026, Bitfinex stated that $BTC and gold are variations of the same hedging tool against devaluation, with Bitcoin representing a "higher beta version." Analysts wrote that the correlation is "near the upper limit of the range where it never persists for long."
"The correlation between $BTC and gold is near the upper limit of the range, but never persists for long," Bitfinex wrote on X.
When two assets tracso closely together, usually something causes them to diverge. The next stress test is scheduled by Bitfinex, which stated that a shock related to reduced risk appetite would show "whether bitcoin will hold the level of gold or fall along with stocks."
The company believes Bitcoin's cycle has overcome the link to gold. In another message on August 27, Bitfinex said the asset "has exited the accumulation phase" and entered the expansion phase.
Its Delta-Thermo Market Multiple reached 2.03, slightly below the 2.5x level used by the model to signal the beginning of a bullish phase, with a distribution peak of 3.5x in the more distant perspective.
Analysts made it clear they view this "as the beginning of a bullish phase, not as approaching a peak."
In His Jackson Hole Debut, Warsh Hinted at Interest Rate Hikes
As reported by Cryptopolitan, on August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of each long-term Treasury buyback operation to a minimum of $4 billion from $2 billion, with the operational schedule running from September 9 to November 4.
Long-term yields rose to near a two-decade high, with the 30-year bond yield at 5.337% amid sluggish demand. A signal came, the dollar fell, gold rose in price, and Bitcoin rose.
Bitfinex linked the current scenario to a similar period in 2024, when JPMorgan strategists explained this movement as "concerns about 'debt debasement' due to persistently high government defi"
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh debuted in Jackson Hole with a tough stance, emphasizing that the 2% inflation target remains relevant and hinting at upcoming interest rate hikes.
Interest rate hikes contradict the currency devaluation thesis that, according to Bitfinex, is driving the trade.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index hit 81, showing "extreme greed" for the first time in 616 days, and funding rates also reached a 20-month high.
Large holders of short-term cashassets realized a profit of about $1.2 billion from August 20 to 22. Price increases based on leverage, coinciding with large asset sales, represent a rather precarious situation that could be revealed by a sharp decline in market activity.
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