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Metrics Ventures Market Observation: Talk is Cheap

This monthly market analysis extends its timeline to incorporate critical July comments from the Fed Chair, noting that bond markets have already priced in perceived policy shortcomings. The report observes a growing divergence: equity markets, after some deleveraging, continue a "trust-based" rally, while bond and currency markets signal persistent distrust. Precious metals bottoming suggests a central bank consensus that the era of "competitive currency devaluation" is ending, with verbal interventions losing power. Looking forward to Q3-Q4, the analysis remains bullish on supply-constrained global resources like copper and power, as well as gold, which prices ongoing monetary失信. It argues that digital assets are unlikely to see major outperformance until excess liquidity is released and AI growth rates are fully priced. Key market views include: 1. Commodities like gold remain primary liquidity absorbers over Bitcoin, with recent consolidation seen as healthy. 2. The bull trend for RMB-denominated assets (e.g., STAR 50 Index) is firmly established. 3. Key resource country indices and currencies are near inflection points, with spot copper already at new highs. The report suggests resource equities, particularly in China's market, are at the end of their consolidation phase, offering attractive valuations with embedded optionality on rising metal prices. It highlights the predictive significance of recent US-Japan FX interventions and Treasury-Fed dynamics, suggesting a shift towards less communication and data management to maintain stability. A long position in resource assets is presented as a positive expected-value strategy over a multi-year horizon.

marsbit08/15 05:21