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Dalio's Annual Analysis: AI is in the Early Stages of a Bubble, Beware of These Risks in 2026

In his annual reflection, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio analyzes key market dynamics of 2025, emphasizing that currency devaluation—not U.S. equities—was the year's dominant story. The dollar fell significantly against gold (39%), the euro (12%), and other major currencies, making gold the best-performing asset with a 65% return in dollar terms. U.S. stocks returned 18% in dollars but declined 28% when measured in gold. Dalio notes a major shift in asset allocation away from U.S. markets, with non-U.S. equities (especially in Europe, China, and emerging markets) outperforming U.S. stocks. He highlights stretched valuations, low expected equity returns (4.7%), and compressed risk premiums as warning signs. Political and geopolitical factors—including U.S. domestic policies, wealth inequality, and a shift toward unilateralism—drove market behavior, boosting gold demand and reducing appetite for dollar assets. Regarding AI, Dalio states it is in the "early stages of a bubble." He warns of debt refinancing risks, potential Fed easing inflating bubbles further, and stresses the importance of currency-hedged strategies. The interplay of monetary, political, geopolitical, and technological forces will continue shaping the macro landscape in line with his "Big Cycle" framework.

比推01/05 21:48