The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Has Never Disappeared, It Just 'Changed Shape'
Has Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Disappeared? The article argues that the fundamental 4-year cycle driven by halving events remains intact but its manifestation has changed due to a shift in the dominant buyer profile.
The cycle peaked in October 2025, aligning with historical post-halving timelines. However, classic on-chain top indicators (MVRV, Pi Cycle, NUPL, etc.) failed to signal the peak. This is because these metrics are designed to detect retail FOMO, which was largely absent in Bitcoin this cycle.
Retail capital was systematically drained by memecoins and high-FDV, low-float VC token launches before it could fuel a parabolic Bitcoin finale. Instead, institutional buyers (spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy) became the marginal buyers. Their steady, programmatic accumulation created a strong but less volatile uptrend that didn't trigger traditional euphoria signals.
The cycle's structure persists: a post-halving supply shock, a peak roughly 480-550 days later, and a bottom approximately one year after the peak (projected for Q3/Q4 2026). Bear market drawdowns are becoming shallower (projected 50-65% vs. past 78-86%) as institutional ownership matures. The article concludes that the cycle's timing remains the most reliable signal, while the tools to identify its phases must evolve with the market's structure.
marsbit06/09 08:24
