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Kevin Warsch's Fed Decision Nears: Here's Why TD Securities Thinks the Dollar Could Still Fall

The upcoming Federal Reserve decision under Chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to result in no change to interest rates for the fifth consecutive meeting, with market-implied probability at 95-98%. Bitcoin has already reacted to this uncertainty, briefly dropping before stabilizing near $63,660, extending its July losses. TD Securities argues that despite this consensus, markets are still mispricing the risk of a rate hike. The bank contends that the dollar is poised to fall once the Fed confirms a hold, as current pricing reflects an exaggerated probability of tightening driven by geopolitical risk premiums, not likely Fed action. This potential mispricing represents one of the largest gaps between market expectations and actual Fed policy in a decade. Post-decision, TD forecasts further dollar weakening, expecting a roughly 2% decline by late 2026, as the Fed is seen maintaining rates absent clear evidence of sustained inflation and labor market strength. For Bitcoin, the Fed's tone is critical. A hold accompanied by dovish signals, strong AI investment forecasts, and positive upcoming PCE inflation data could support a move toward $68,000-$70,000. Conversely, unexpectedly hawkish communication risks pushing prices back toward the $58,000-$60,000 range. A weaker dollar, as predicted by TD, could also provide a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

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