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Analyzing how Bitcoin’s short-term holders and $64K-level can unlock market bulls

Bitcoin's price is struggling amid bearish sentiment, but key shifts among short-term holders (STHs) could signal a potential bullish turn. STHs, who purchased BTC in the last month at an average cost basis of $85,450, are currently at a 19% unrealized loss. Historically, a 25% or greater loss often marks a market bottom, suggesting Bitcoin may need to decline another 6% to around $64,000 to trigger a rebound. At this level, STH selling typically subsides, reducing supply pressure. Meanwhile, approximately 300,000 BTC (worth ~$27 billion) have recently moved from STHs to long-term holders (LTHs), who are less likely to sell during downturns, thereby supporting price stability. Additionally, exchange reserves have slightly declined from 2.46 million to 2.45 million BTC, indicating a tightening supply. A sustained reduction in reserves could further limit downside risk and lay the foundation for a potential rally.

ambcrypto04/08 06:02