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Why Hasn't Bitcoin Made the Expected Surge? There Are Both Positive and Negative Data

Analytical firm Glassnode reports Bitcoin retreated to around $62,600 after failing to sustain above $66,000. Weak spot market demand and defensive positions in derivatives are applying downward pressure. However, structural support remains from resilient long-term holders, surging on-chain activity, and renewed inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. The price action reflects weakened spot momentum, with low trading volume and persistent seller pressure keeping Bitcoin in a consolidation phase with limited breakout potential. While open interest in derivatives has fallen, funding rates have risen again, and options investors maintain a cautious stance. Demand for downside protection has increased. Positively, Bitcoin ETFs have seen renewed net inflows and trading volume, indicating institutional repositioning. On-chain metrics show a significant spike in active addresses and adjusted transaction volume, pointing to increased network usage. The historically low ratio of short-term to long-term holders suggests long-term conviction remains firm. However, overall market profitability continues to decline as the proportion of Bitcoin in profit nears cycle lows, indicating a trend of loss realization and de-risking by investors. Glassnode concludes the Bitcoin market is in a transitional phase. Structural support is present, but valuation pressure, insufficient spot demand, and defensive derivatives positioning continue to limit overall risk appetite.

cryptonews.ru08/03 19:11

Why Hasn't Bitcoin Made the Expected Surge? There Are Both Positive and Negative Data

cryptonews.ru08/03 19:11

Has Bitcoin's 'Rebound Ended', Officially Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?

**Title: Has Bitcoin's Rebound Ended, Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?** **Summary:** Bitcoin's price has declined by 13% this week, signaling a potential return to late-stage bear market conditions. The price fell to around $67k, positioned between the Realized Price and Realized Cap Weighted Average. For the first time since early 2022, the Short-Term Holder cost basis has dropped below this key average, confirming a hallmark of late-cycle bear markets. Profitability metrics have collapsed sharply. The 7-day average of the Realized Profit/Loss ratio plummeted from a local high of 3.16 to 0.29, mirroring the February panic sell-off. Critically, the 90-day average never breached the threshold of 2, indicating the recent rally to $82k was a bear market bounce, not a structural shift. Realized losses surged to $1.35 billion daily, with $770 million coming from Long-Term Holders selling at a loss. This accelerating redistribution of supply from weak to strong hands is a necessary but ongoing process for a market bottom. The rally stalled almost precisely at the aggregate cost basis (~$83k) of US spot Bitcoin ETF investors, turning that level into strong resistance and leaving the average ETF holder underwater again. Spot market flows have turned decisively negative, showing sellers are dominating order books despite the price drop. While a significant futures long liquidation event cleared over $400 million in leverage, providing a potential reset, sustained spot demand is yet to materialize. Options markets continue to price in higher future volatility (Implied Volatility) than recent price action (Realized Volatility) has shown, with a persistent skew towards put options, indicating ongoing demand for downside protection. In conclusion, multiple metrics point to a fragile market structure. Resistance at the ETF cost basis, accelerating realized losses, dominant spot selling, and cautious options pricing all suggest the bear market trend persists. A sustainable recovery likely requires a resurgence of spot demand, ETF holders returning to profit, and a clear reduction in selling pressure.

marsbit06/05 11:07

Has Bitcoin's 'Rebound Ended', Officially Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?

marsbit06/05 11:07

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