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BofA's Hartnett: "New Global Order = New Global Bull Market = Gold & Silver Bull Market", Biggest Risk to Bull Market is East Asian Currency Appreciation

U.S. Bank's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett argues that Trump’s push for global fiscal expansion is creating a "New World Order = New World Bull Market" framework. In this environment, gold and silver bull markets are expected to continue, while the greatest near-term risk is a rapid appreciation of East Asian currencies—specifically the yen, won, and Taiwan dollar—which could trigger a global liquidity crunch by reversing capital outflows from Asia. Hartnett recommends going long on international stocks and assets tied to economic recovery, with China being his top market pick due to its potential to catalyze bull markets in Japan and Europe as deflation ends. He projects gold could surge past $6,000, supported by long-term drivers like fiscal expansion and geopolitical tensions, though the metal is currently overbought. Small and mid-cap stocks are also expected to benefit from anticipated interest rate cuts, tax reductions, and tariff policies. However, Hartnett cautions that this bullish outlook depends on U.S. unemployment remaining low and Trump succeeding in reducing living costs to maintain public support. A key warning sign for market exit would be a simultaneous rise in the yen and the MOVE volatility index.

marsbit01/19 10:59

BofA's Hartnett: "New Global Order = New Global Bull Market = Gold & Silver Bull Market", Biggest Risk to Bull Market is East Asian Currency Appreciation

marsbit01/19 10:59

It's Time to Start Making Money Again: The Breakout of the Russell 2000 Index May Sound the Charge for Crypto

The Russell 2000 Index, a key benchmark for US small-cap stocks, has broken out to a new all-time high above 2600 points—a move that has preceded major "altcoin seasons" in the past, such as those in 2017 and 2021. This breakout, supported by strong volume and broad participation, signals a return of risk-on sentiment and suggests capital is moving down the risk curve in search of higher returns. Small-cap stocks are highly sensitive to liquidity conditions. Their outperformance indicates that underlying macro liquidity is improving, driven by Federal Reserve actions, Treasury cash deployment, and marginally easier fiscal policy. This liquidity typically flows first into bonds and equities, then into higher-beta assets like small-caps, and finally into alternative assets like cryptocurrencies. The current crypto market—with thin order books, low leverage, and improved infrastructure (such as ETFs and clearer regulation)—is positioned to absorb this incoming liquidity. Historical patterns suggest a 1-3 month lag between Russell breakouts and significant crypto rallies. While each cycle has unique narratives, the underlying mechanism of liquidity-driven risk appetite remains consistent. The Russell 2000’s breakout should not be ignored by crypto traders, as it has historically marked the beginning of a broader altcoin recovery and a potential "super-cycle" characterized by structural support, absorbed pullbacks, and capital rotation into high-beta crypto assets.

marsbit01/13 11:35

It's Time to Start Making Money Again: The Breakout of the Russell 2000 Index May Sound the Charge for Crypto

marsbit01/13 11:35

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