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Glassnode: Crypto Market Enters Later Stages of Bottoming Phase

Glassnode: Crypto Market Enters Later Stages of Bottom Formation Bitcoin has traded below the true market average and the short-term holder cost basis for five consecutive months, indicating a deep undervaluation. On-chain data reveals a significant shift in selling pressure, with long-term holders now accounting for 43% of all realized losses. Daily realized losses for this group recently peaked at $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. While this large-scale capitulation is a hallmark of bear market bottoms, a sustained decline in this metric is a prerequisite for a sustained recovery. Institutional demand remains weak. US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see monthly net outflows, although the pace has moderated from June's peak. Furthermore, average daily ETF trading volumes have contracted by approximately 80% from their October 2025 peak, reflecting subdued institutional participation. Derivatives markets present a mixed picture. Overall positioning has shifted to cautiously bullish, with the put/call ratio dropping to a yearly low. However, the options volatility skew remains elevated, signaling that traders are still paying a premium for downside protection. The spot price also trades below the gamma "max pain" level. In summary, multiple indicators suggest the market is in the later phases of a bottoming process, characterized by long-term holder capitulation and weak institutional inflows. However, key confirmation signals for a durable trend reversal—a sustained drop in long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization of ETF flows, and a price recovery above key cost bases—are still pending.

Foresight News07/09 02:41

Glassnode: Crypto Market Enters Later Stages of Bottoming Phase

Foresight News07/09 02:41

Has Bitcoin's 'Rebound Ended', Officially Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?

**Title: Has Bitcoin's Rebound Ended, Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?** **Summary:** Bitcoin's price has declined by 13% this week, signaling a potential return to late-stage bear market conditions. The price fell to around $67k, positioned between the Realized Price and Realized Cap Weighted Average. For the first time since early 2022, the Short-Term Holder cost basis has dropped below this key average, confirming a hallmark of late-cycle bear markets. Profitability metrics have collapsed sharply. The 7-day average of the Realized Profit/Loss ratio plummeted from a local high of 3.16 to 0.29, mirroring the February panic sell-off. Critically, the 90-day average never breached the threshold of 2, indicating the recent rally to $82k was a bear market bounce, not a structural shift. Realized losses surged to $1.35 billion daily, with $770 million coming from Long-Term Holders selling at a loss. This accelerating redistribution of supply from weak to strong hands is a necessary but ongoing process for a market bottom. The rally stalled almost precisely at the aggregate cost basis (~$83k) of US spot Bitcoin ETF investors, turning that level into strong resistance and leaving the average ETF holder underwater again. Spot market flows have turned decisively negative, showing sellers are dominating order books despite the price drop. While a significant futures long liquidation event cleared over $400 million in leverage, providing a potential reset, sustained spot demand is yet to materialize. Options markets continue to price in higher future volatility (Implied Volatility) than recent price action (Realized Volatility) has shown, with a persistent skew towards put options, indicating ongoing demand for downside protection. In conclusion, multiple metrics point to a fragile market structure. Resistance at the ETF cost basis, accelerating realized losses, dominant spot selling, and cautious options pricing all suggest the bear market trend persists. A sustainable recovery likely requires a resurgence of spot demand, ETF holders returning to profit, and a clear reduction in selling pressure.

marsbit06/05 11:07

Has Bitcoin's 'Rebound Ended', Officially Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?

marsbit06/05 11:07

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Lead $1.35 Billion Capitulation: Glassnode

Glassnode reports that the recent Bitcoin price crash triggered a significant $1.35 billion daily capitulation event, marked by a sharp spike in Realized Loss. Notably, long-term holders (LTHs), who purchased near the 2025 bull market highs, were responsible for the majority ($770 million) of this loss-taking, a shift from previous sell-offs dominated by short-term holders. The analytics firm notes this pattern of LTH capitulation is a recurring feature in bear market bottoming processes, though the current pace suggests it may be incomplete. The crash also led to substantial long liquidations in the futures market. Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,500, down over 12% in the past week.

bitcoinist06/04 14:01

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Lead $1.35 Billion Capitulation: Glassnode

bitcoinist06/04 14:01

Bitcoin Rallies, But Traders Still Realizing $479M In Losses Daily

Despite Bitcoin's recent rally to around $80,100, on-chain data reveals that investors are still realizing significant losses. The Bitcoin Realized Loss indicator, which measures the total loss from coins sold below their previous purchase price, has remained elevated at approximately $479 million per day. This level is about 140% above the typical baseline of $200 million seen in stable market periods. Notably, this spike in realized losses occurred even as Bitcoin's price increased, contrasting with previous loss spikes that happened during major price crashes. This pattern suggests that some investors are choosing to exit their positions at a loss during the rally, possibly due to a lack of confidence in its sustainability. Analysts suggest that for a healthier market regime to be confirmed, the daily realized loss would need to compress and sustain below the $200 million level, indicating selling exhaustion and a shift towards stronger underlying demand.

bitcoinist05/08 16:41

Bitcoin Rallies, But Traders Still Realizing $479M In Losses Daily

bitcoinist05/08 16:41

XRP nears $1.40 as SOPR signals capitulation: Is recovery ahead?

Ripple (XRP) is approaching $1.40 amid increasing selling pressure, as indicated by the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) falling to 0.96, signaling that investors are realizing losses. This suggests a phase of capitulation, where weaker holders are exiting at a loss. Despite the negative market conditions, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) maintains strong underlying activity, with 1.8–2.5 million daily payments and stable transaction throughput. Active addresses remain steady between 35,000–40,000, indicating consistent user engagement. The current market structure resembles the 2021–2022 cycle, where capitulation and sustained network usage eventually preceded a significant price recovery. A reclaim of SOPR above 1.0 could signal the beginning of market stabilization and a gradual rebound.

ambcrypto03/06 16:02

XRP nears $1.40 as SOPR signals capitulation: Is recovery ahead?

ambcrypto03/06 16:02

Bitcoin’s Latest Selloff Mirrors June 2022 As New Buyers Realize $1.5 Billion In Daily Losses

Bitcoin's recent selloff has triggered significant loss realization among recent investors, mirroring patterns seen during the June 2022 market bottom. According to on-chain data, buyers from 2025 and 2026 realized approximately $1.5 billion in daily losses during the downturn. The Net Realised Profit/Loss metric, which tracks net profit or loss from transactions, plunged into negative territory for these cohorts. While newer investors were selling at a loss, older investors largely took profits. Additionally, the Relative Unrealized Loss—unrealized loss as a percentage of market cap—rose to 16%, a level comparable to the May 2022 bear market. Bitcoin is currently trading around $69,300, down over 11% in the past week.

bitcoinist02/10 07:28

Bitcoin’s Latest Selloff Mirrors June 2022 As New Buyers Realize $1.5 Billion In Daily Losses

bitcoinist02/10 07:28

Why Bitcoin’s Current Market Behavior Doesn’t Resemble An Accumulation Phase Right Now

Despite Bitcoin's recent price recovery toward $100,000, on-chain data suggests the market is not in an accumulation phase. According to analyst Joao Wedson, current activity resembles redistribution rather than accumulation, with large investors likely to sell heavily if BTC reaches the $95,000–$96,700 range. Additionally, realized losses of $511 million continue to dominate over profits of $312 million, indicating ongoing investor capitulation. This selling pressure, however, may help cleanse the market and potentially mark the end of a corrective phase.

bitcoinist01/06 16:32

Why Bitcoin’s Current Market Behavior Doesn’t Resemble An Accumulation Phase Right Now

bitcoinist01/06 16:32

Bitcoin Sees Post-Capitulation Conditions Align: Selling Pressure Falls 80%

Bitcoin remains below $90,000, with repeated rejections fueling bearish sentiment. However, on-chain analysis by Axel Adler indicates a significant reduction in selling pressure. The realized loss z-score, which peaked between 8.7–10.9 in November with over $5 billion in daily losses, fell sharply by late December to around 1.6. Weekly realized losses dropped from $2.4 billion to approximately $0.5 billion, signaling seller exhaustion. The Net Realized Profit/Loss metric, though still negative, improved markedly in late December, shrinking its negative value by nearly half. This improvement occurred without a strong price rebound, suggesting the change stems from structural selling exhaustion rather than speculative activity. Historically, such conditions precede market stabilization and potential recovery, positioning January as a possible inflection point if new demand emerges.

bitcoinist12/30 03:01

Bitcoin Sees Post-Capitulation Conditions Align: Selling Pressure Falls 80%

bitcoinist12/30 03:01

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