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Why Are the Most Believers in AGI Buying NVIDIA Put Options?

The article analyzes the significant, market-moving 13F filing for Q1 2026 by Situational Awareness LP (SALP), a fund managed by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner. While Aschenbrenner is a prominent believer in the accelerated arrival of AGI and has built the fund as a focused bet on AI infrastructure, the filing revealed large new put option positions (totaling billions in notional value) on key AI/semiconductor names like Nvidia, SMH ETF, Broadcom, and AMD. The article argues this is not a bearish turn on AI but a sophisticated hedging strategy. Given the macro backdrop in late March (rising oil prices, inflation concerns, higher-for-longer interest rates), the fund is managing volatility in its high-beta, high-valuation portfolio of AI infrastructure plays (like Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, Core Scientific). The puts act as "insurance" against a potential systemic pullback in the AI trade. Simultaneously, SALP maintained or added to core long positions in companies tied to power, data centers, compute, and storage—the "bottlenecks" expected to capture AI capital spending. It trimmed or exited some Q1 winners (e.g., Lumentum) and reduced leverage (e.g., selling CoreWeave calls), suggesting a rotation from crowded, high-momentum trades towards assets with clearer long-term fundamental pathways. The key takeaway is an evolution in the AI investment theme: from a broad, linear rally to a more discerning, "show-me-the-money" phase. The focus shifts from simply buying the AI narrative to identifying companies that can convert capex into tangible revenue, while actively managing portfolio risk in a volatile macro environment. The strategy reflects a move from unilateral bullishness to "offense with defense."

marsbit05/20 12:23