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New Huo Research: Dense Bottom Fishing in the $60K BTC Range, a 'High Value-for-Money Zone' Sees a Handover Surge

Bitcoin has shown a significant oversold rebound this week, with extreme panic in the crypto market easing. Multiple data points indicate a notable market bottom is forming. On the market front, the net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs has continued to shrink, and the negative premium between Coinbase and USDT is steadily correcting. Industry fundamentals suggest the shutdown cost for mainstream miners is concentrated between $30,000 and $50,000, potentially solidifying a阶段性 industry cost floor—a classic signal of market bottoms in previous cycles. Institutional capital is notably positioning against the trend. For instance, Sinohope Group's weekly OTC trading volume surged over 8 times环比, with active platform users doubling, both reaching record highs. This confirms a sharp increase in large capital transaction activity and a spike in off-exchange funding demand. Sinohope Research also observed on-chain data showing that funds from entities with public company attributes and long-term "whale" wallets are actively accumulating Bitcoin around the key $60,000 price level. The research institute has maintained since mid-May that a high-value investment window has reopened, and the market is now undergoing a shift from panic selling to long-term holding. Looking ahead, the core drivers for an upward market move will be liquidity release and macro policy developments. The successful and strong performance of SpaceX's IPO has reignited market optimism, and the massive liquidity frozen during its subscription period is now being unlocked. This substantial capital is expected to seek new value opportunities, potentially flowing into currently undervalued assets like Bitcoin. On the macro and policy front, the tone set in Kevin Warsh's upcoming speech at the FOMC meeting is crucial for near-term monetary policy expectations. Furthermore, the potential passage of the CLARITY Act by late July could significantly boost institutional confidence for capital entry. Considering these bottoming signals alongside favorable liquidity and policy factors, Sinohope Research remains optimistic about the market's subsequent trajectory.

marsbit06/18 09:16

New Huo Research: Dense Bottom Fishing in the $60K BTC Range, a 'High Value-for-Money Zone' Sees a Handover Surge

marsbit06/18 09:16

BIT Weekly Market Outlook: Highs Halved, Panic Doubled. The $60,000 Line is the Sole Lifeline

BIT Market Weekly: Halving from the Peak, Doubling Panic. $60K is the Sole Lifeline. The crypto market faces intense pressure from multiple fronts. MicroStrategy's symbolic sale of 32 BTC, its first since December 2022, shattered its "only accumulate" mantra, triggering panic and significant whale selling (~25,000 BTC). This pushed Bitcoin below MicroStrategy's average cost basis, causing unrealized losses. Bearish momentum intensified as spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record 13-day net outflow streak, with $4.4 billion exiting, led by BlackRock's IBIT. Concurrently, macro risks mounted: sticky inflation dampened rate cut hopes, Mt.Gox wallet movements stoked sell-off fears, and renewed Middle East tensions added uncertainty. Derivatives data reveals a market at a critical juncture. Short-term options show extreme panic (negative Skew), but forward-term Skew has turned positive, signaling institutional expectations for a recovery in 3-6 months. Most notably, institutional activity shifted from defensive hedging to opportunistic bottom-fishing. They are selling puts and buying calls around the $60,000 level, effectively using options to establish controlled long positions. The $60,000 level is now the core battleground, hosting the largest concentration of put options open interest. It represents a binary outcome for the market. Holding above it could provide a base for stabilization, while a break below risks a swift decline toward the next major support at $55,000. Given the high uncertainty ahead of key CPI data and the FOMC meeting, the primary recommendation is risk management via Collar strategies to cap downside. For accumulation, structured products like DCPs or Bullish Seagulls can be deployed in batches near $60,000, mimicking institutional "selling puts to accumulate" logic. While volatility selling appears attractive as Implied Volatility shows topping signals, it's advised only with defined-risk spreads until $60,000 support is confirmed. Current levels are unsuitable for large-scale profit-taking; holding core positions with hedges is preferred.

marsbit06/10 07:26

BIT Weekly Market Outlook: Highs Halved, Panic Doubled. The $60,000 Line is the Sole Lifeline

marsbit06/10 07:26

Solana [SOL] stalls at range highs as market panic overrides capital inflows

Solana (SOL) experienced a strong rally earlier in the week, surging 21.78% from $75.6 to $92.1 within 32 hours. However, the rally stalled near range highs, and SOL has since retreated toward range lows. Market sentiment turned fearful following Bitcoin's sell-off, with panic selling driven by geopolitical tensions. Key indicators reflect bearish pressure: Open Interest and funding rates are negative, and the spot CVD confirms selling pressure. The Coin Days Destroyed metric has trended higher, indicating sellers are using price bounces to exit. Although the Chaikin Money Flow shows slight inflows and the MFI is oversold, the overall market remains precarious. The weekly structure is bearish, with SOL breaking below the March 2025 low of $95. The next long-term target could be $47.93. Traders are advised to maintain a bearish bias, watching for a breakdown below the range lows. Bitcoin's ability to defend $64k and recover above $66k may offer some bullish momentum, but SOL's key level to monitor is $76.

ambcrypto03/01 01:01

Solana [SOL] stalls at range highs as market panic overrides capital inflows

ambcrypto03/01 01:01

Vitalik Announced Selling Coins in Advance, Why Did the Market Still Panic?

In February 2026, amid a prolonged crypto market downturn and a six-month consecutive decline in Ethereum's price, co-founder Vitalik Buterin sold approximately 19,326 ETH through 532 transactions. This action, which exceeded his initial announcement of selling 16,384 ETH, was executed transparently via a single address and CoW Swap to minimize market impact. Vitalik had publicly disclosed his plans in late January, explaining that the proceeds would fund public goods and open-source projects, including privacy tech, security hardware, and biotech tools—areas affected by the Ethereum Foundation's budget cuts. He emphasized that the sales were not for personal gain but to support ecosystem sustainability. Despite the transparency, the larger-than-expected sell-off during a fragile market period intensified fears and selling pressure among investors, potentially exacerbating ETH's decline. The move raised concerns about market confidence, even as Vitalik maintained his commitment to ethical and open financial practices.

比推02/27 15:17

Vitalik Announced Selling Coins in Advance, Why Did the Market Still Panic?

比推02/27 15:17

Arthur Hayes, Tom Lee buy Ethereum’s dip as retail panic: What’s going on?

Amid Ethereum's 37% decline to around $2,013, institutional investors are buying the dip while retail panics. Arthur Hayes deposited 1,000 ETH ($1.99M) into Bybit, and Tom Lee’s Bitmine acquired 45,759 ETH ($90.83M), despite sitting on an $8.03B unrealized loss. Analysts note Ethereum is in a "market coldness" phase with low sentiment, as shown by MVRV and other metrics near zero. Recent buyers are at a loss, and short-term trader activity is flat. Some, like Borovik, predict a long-term recovery to $10,000 by 2027, but current price action shows weak buying interest and sideways movement. The $2,000 level remains a critical psychological and technical support.

ambcrypto02/18 23:02

Arthur Hayes, Tom Lee buy Ethereum’s dip as retail panic: What’s going on?

ambcrypto02/18 23:02

Trading Moment: AI Panic Escalates Ahead of CPI, Bitcoin Grinds Bottom in Volatility, Unlikely to Repeat 'Spring Festival Rally'

Market Summary: AI Panic Deepens Ahead of CPI, Bitcoin Grinds Near Bottom, “Spring Festival Rally” Unlikely Macro markets are gripped by an AI-driven confidence crisis, shifting from “AI frenzy” to “AI panic.” This triggered a broad sell-off, erasing $1 trillion from U.S. stock market value. Major indices fell sharply, with tech giants like Apple and Amazon leading losses. The fear spread beyond software to sectors like commercial real estate and logistics, causing significant stock declines. This panic sparked a liquidity crunch, even dragging down safe-havens gold and silver. All eyes are on the upcoming U.S. CPI data for clues on the Fed's rate path. Bitcoin is struggling in a $60k-$72k range, facing heavy selling pressure above $82k. Analysts suggest a prolonged consolidation is likely without a major catalyst, with a strong structural bottom estimated between $52k-$58k. Predictions for a cycle bottom vary, with some targeting $40k-$50k by late 2026. Ethereum shows relative weakness, trading below $2,000 and its $3,500 average cost basis. Technical analysis points to potential further declines, with pessimistic targets as low as $1,006, though some see a bullish wedge pattern forming. Solana also faces pressure, with key support at $60. A broader altcoin downturn is noted, with a view that 99% may never reclaim all-time highs. Key data shows the market in "Extreme Fear" (index: 9). Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows. Today's focus is on the U.S. January CPI release and other scheduled events like the FTX claims registration.

marsbit02/13 07:23

Trading Moment: AI Panic Escalates Ahead of CPI, Bitcoin Grinds Bottom in Volatility, Unlikely to Repeat 'Spring Festival Rally'

marsbit02/13 07:23

Euphoria, Panic, and Crashes: Navigating 38 Years of Bull and Bear Markets, Volatility is the Inevitable Path to Wealth

Facing the recent extreme volatility in crypto markets, a veteran with 38 years of market experience and 13 years in crypto shares his perspective. He has witnessed Bitcoin’s rise from $200 to $75,000 and endured multiple drawdowns of 50% to 80%. Through these cycles, he emphasizes that volatility is the necessary “entry tax” in a secular bull market, and true wealth belongs to those who overcome emotional instincts, accumulate during panic, and hold long-term. He recalls buying BTC at $200 in 2013, only to see it drop 75% shortly after, and later falling 87% in the 2014 bear market. During the 2017 bull run, he experienced multiple sharp corrections. Although he sold during the fork wars and missed further gains, he re-entered during the COVID crash. In 2021, BTC fell 50% from April to July, similar to current sentiment, yet it eventually reached new highs. Key lessons: 1. For secular assets, doing nothing (HODLing) often outperforms timing the market. 2. Aggressively adding during sell-offs, even incrementally, compounds returns significantly over time. He advises asking two questions: Will the world be more digital tomorrow? Will fiat currency be worth less? If yes, continue investing. Time in the market beats timing the market. Manage position size according to personal risk tolerance, and never use leverage—it leads to permanent loss. He stresses the importance of having self-earned conviction (DYOR—Do Your Own Research), not relying on borrowed beliefs. While timing experts may occasionally succeed, expecting and accepting volatility is crucial. He continues to buy during dips, as he did in 2020–2024, and plans to do so again. Volatility is the price paid for long-term compound returns. Embrace it.

marsbit02/07 04:17

Euphoria, Panic, and Crashes: Navigating 38 Years of Bull and Bear Markets, Volatility is the Inevitable Path to Wealth

marsbit02/07 04:17

No Black Swan, Four Atypical Suspicions Behind Bitcoin's Oversold 'Culprit'

This article explores four non-typical theories behind Bitcoin's recent sharp and seemingly unexplained price drop, which pushed it into one of its most oversold conditions in history. The first theory suggests the sell-off was triggered by a large Asian entity outside the crypto space. It allegedly engaged in leveraged trading on Binance, faced a liquidity crisis from unwinding a Yen carry trade, and was forced to liquidate positions after failed attempts to recoup losses in gold and silver markets. This points to a cross-market, leverage-driven liquidity cascade, with unusual trading volume in BlackRock's IBIT ETF hinting at a major forced liquidation by a concentrated holder. The second theory examines potential selling from governments. Speculation centers on the US possibly liquidating a massive 127,000 BTC seized from a criminal case and the UK's 61,000 BTC seizure from a money laundering investigation. However, no on-chain evidence of such large-scale government OTC sales has materialized. The third hypothesis argues that "deep pocket" institutional players, like sovereign wealth funds, are facing their own liquidity crunches. Burdened by high interest rates and over-allocated to illiquid alternative assets, they are selling more liquid holdings like crypto to fund new capital expenditures, such as the AI arms race, creating a negative feedback loop. Finally, the fourth theory posits that crypto native investors (OGs) are panic selling based on macro fears of a major economic downturn, while new institutional investors see the dip as a buying opportunity. The market remains heavily influenced by retail sentiment, with OGs often moving in unison, amplifying volatility despite the entrance of ETFs.

marsbit02/06 08:20

No Black Swan, Four Atypical Suspicions Behind Bitcoin's Oversold 'Culprit'

marsbit02/06 08:20

Single-Day Plunge of Nearly 20%: How Long Has It Been Since You Last Saw Bitcoin at $60,000?

The cryptocurrency market experienced its most severe sell-off of the year, with Bitcoin plummeting nearly 20% in 24 hours to briefly touch $60,000, a level unseen for some time. It has since slightly recovered to around $63,150. Ethereum fell below the key $2,000 psychological level, dropping over 14% to $1,848. Other major altcoins, including Solana, BNB, XRP, and Cardano, saw losses exceeding 12-19%. This sharp decline triggered massive liquidations, with over $26.6 billion in positions forcibly closed across the market. Long positions accounted for 87% of these liquidations, affecting more than 580,000 traders and creating a vicious cycle of selling pressure. The crash was driven by multiple factors converging. Concerns over potential hawkish monetary policy from new Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, a strong rebound in the US Dollar Index, and sustained outflows from institutional investors in US spot ETFs all contributed to the panic. Market sentiment is now highly sensitive to geopolitical and macroeconomic news. Looking ahead, a quick V-shaped recovery is considered unlikely. The market is expected to remain volatile due to structural weakness in altcoins, heightened risk aversion among retail investors, and ongoing sensitivity to external news. Investors are advised to practice strict risk management, avoid excessive leverage, focus on high-quality projects with strong fundamentals, and maintain a long-term perspective, as the crypto market has historically recovered from such downturns.

Odaily星球日报02/06 02:58

Single-Day Plunge of Nearly 20%: How Long Has It Been Since You Last Saw Bitcoin at $60,000?

Cryptocurrency markets experienced their most severe sell-off of the year, with Bitcoin plunging nearly 20% in 24 hours to briefly touch $60,000, its lowest level in months. Ethereum fell below $2,000, dropping to as low as $1,744, while Solana and other major altcoins also saw declines exceeding 12–19%. The total market liquidation surpassed $2.66 billion, with long positions accounting for 87% of the forced closures. The sharp decline was driven by multiple factors, including concerns over potential hawkish monetary policy from the new Fed chair nominee, a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index, and sustained outflows from institutional Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Market sentiment remains fragile, with high sensitivity to macroeconomic and geopolitical news. Analysts expect continued volatility rather than a quick V-shaped recovery, citing structural weakness in altcoins, reduced retail speculation, and heightened risk aversion. Investors are advised to practice strict risk management, avoid over-leveraging, and focus on high-quality projects with strong fundamentals while maintaining a long-term perspective.

marsbit02/06 00:59

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