# Oracle Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Oracle", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Prediction Markets = Market Manipulation? The Failure of Collective Wisdom and the Battle for Settlement Rights

This article examines the controversial nature of prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, through three case studies, arguing that they are vulnerable to manipulation, groupthink, and battles over settlement authority, rather than being pure expressions of collective wisdom. Case 1: "Who will HBO identify as Satoshi?" Despite leaked evidence and media reports confirming the documentary would identify Peter Todd, the price for "Len Sassaman" remained high due to the community's emotional preference for a more narratively satisfying outcome. This demonstrates how narrative and emotion can cause market prices to deviate from factual evidence. Case 2: "How many gifts will Santa deliver?" Traders discovered a hardcoded number in the NORAD website's source code and drove the price of that outcome above 90%. However, this turned the market into a bet on whether the developers would change the number before the deadline, highlighting how centralized control of information sources creates exploitable opportunities. Case 3: "Israel strikes Gaza" contract. In the final hours, a coordinated effort using unverified screenshots and sell orders crashed the price of "No" to 1-2%, creating a false narrative of an attack. The contract was controversially settled as "Yes," showcasing how narrative, capital, and control over the settlement process can be weaponized to manipulate outcomes. The analysis concludes that prediction markets are not neutral but are instead arenas where media narratives, platform rule design, social media influence, and technical exploitation (e.g., finding hardcoded values) can be leveraged to manipulate prices and settlements, often benefiting organized, resource-rich players at the expense of the crowd.

marsbitAyer 05:06

Prediction Markets = Market Manipulation? The Failure of Collective Wisdom and the Battle for Settlement Rights

marsbitAyer 05:06

2026 Crypto Transformation: Real Profits Trump Storytelling

The crypto market is shifting from narrative-driven growth to a cash flow and sustainability-focused valuation model in 2026. Key drivers include Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 upgrade, which removes technical barriers to launching perpetual markets and enables demand-driven, PvE-style expansion into real-world assets. Projects with real revenue and token value accrual—like Hyperliquid, Pump.fun, Aave, and Jupiter—are leading this transition. Meanwhile, prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi) are emerging as key infrastructure for real-time probabilistic data on events, attracting institutional and AI interest despite regulatory divergence: institutionalization in the West and suppression in Asia. The market is now prioritizing fundamentals over speculation.

marsbitHace 2 días 00:33

2026 Crypto Transformation: Real Profits Trump Storytelling

marsbitHace 2 días 00:33

Trading Moment: Bitcoin at $92K in Bull-Bear Battle, Oracle and Moore Thread Drag Down AI Sector

Daily Market Analysis by PANews: Bitcoin hovers around $92K amid intense long-short battles, while AI stocks face pressure from Oracle and Moore Threads. Key drivers include the Fed's 25bps rate cut and plans for $40B monthly Treasury purchases, boosting gold to near $4290 and silver to a record $64. However, rising US jobless claims and China's economic policy shift toward domestic demand and tech innovation signal caution. Oracle's stock plunged 16% due to weak cloud revenue growth and elevated capex guidance, dragging down AI sector momentum. Despite strong earnings, Broadcom fell 1.94%, and Google dropped 2.43% after OpenAI's Disney deal. Domestically, Moore Threads crashed 15% after a 723% rally, warning of unproven product impact. BTC trades between $92K-$94K with reduced selling pressure; analysts target $99K-$112K if bullish momentum holds, but shorts target $87.7K. ETH faces resistance at $3.6K-$3.8K if BTC breaks $94K, with key support at $3.15K. Other highlights: Do Kwon sentenced to 15 years, triggering 30% drops in Terra tokens; fear index at 29; BTC dominance 58.46%. Upcoming events include Bittensor halving and SEC crypto roundtable.

marsbit12/12 07:42

Trading Moment: Bitcoin at $92K in Bull-Bear Battle, Oracle and Moore Thread Drag Down AI Sector

marsbit12/12 07:42

AI Bubble Concerns Reignite, Oracle Plunges 16%, US Stocks Mixed, Gold and Oil Under Pressure, Bitcoin Drops Over 2%

Concerns about an AI investment bubble resurfaced, triggering a broad sell-off in risk assets. Oracle's stock plummeted 16% after reporting disappointing quarterly results, with both revenue and cloud business income missing analyst expectations. The company also reported negative free cash flow and announced significantly higher-than-expected capital expenditures, largely debt-funded, for AI infrastructure. This development dampened market sentiment, particularly towards tech and AI-related stocks. Major U.S. indices were mixed, with the Nasdaq falling 0.6%. Global markets reacted similarly, with Asian and European shares mostly lower. The negative risk sentiment flowed into other asset classes. Bitcoin fell over 2%, briefly dropping below $90,000, while gold and crude oil prices also declined. In contrast, silver and copper posted gains. Analysts noted that Oracle's performance has intensified scrutiny on AI-driven spending strategies, especially those financed through debt. The market's reaction highlights growing investor caution regarding the sustainability of AI investments, marking a shift from previous excitement around capital expenditure increases in the sector.

华尔街日报12/11 16:04

AI Bubble Concerns Reignite, Oracle Plunges 16%, US Stocks Mixed, Gold and Oil Under Pressure, Bitcoin Drops Over 2%

华尔街日报12/11 16:04

Prize Pool 60,000 USDT: "TRON ECO Holiday Odyssey" Annual Ecological Exploration Gala Set to Begin

TRON ECO launches its "Holiday Odyssey" event, a large-scale year-end celebration from December 10, 2025, to January 18, 2026, featuring a total prize pool of 60,000 USDT. The event centers around five core ecosystem projects—SunPump, JUST, AINFT, BitTorrent, and WINkLink—each representing a "holiday planet" with unique interactive tasks. Participants can complete missions to earn rewards, including limited edition TRON ECO merchandise. Key activities include planet-specific tasks such as price prediction with WINkLink, engagement with BitTorrent’s decentralized storage, AI-themed meme creation via SunGenX, a Christmas blind box event with SunPump, and a DeFi strategy competition with JUST. A major "Star Challenge" from December 25 to January 8 offers a 10,000 USDT prize pool supported by sponsors including OSK, Biconomy, and PepeOnTron. Additional features include holiday-themed Twitter Spaces sessions and a joint campaign with HTX exchange boasting over 40,000 USDT in rewards. The event highlights TRON's growing ecosystem, which recently surpassed 250 million accounts and continues to expand across DeFi, AI, and storage sectors. Recent upgrades in AI infrastructure, tokenomics, and user experience tools like SunAgent aim to strengthen TRON’s position as a leading smart contract platform. "Holiday Odyssey" invites the global community to explore TRON’s ecosystem and participate in its end-of-year festivities.

深潮12/11 10:01

Prize Pool 60,000 USDT: "TRON ECO Holiday Odyssey" Annual Ecological Exploration Gala Set to Begin

深潮12/11 10:01

Prediction Markets: A Decade of Refinement, Who's Next?

The evolution of the crypto prediction market is a compelling case study, having taken nearly a decade to achieve product-market fit (PMF) after being prematurely dismissed. Early projects like Gnosis (2015) and Augur (2018) struggled with high Ethereum gas fees, poor user experience, regulatory pressure (e.g., CFTC classifying them as gambling), and immature oracles, leading to low liquidity and trading volumes. The turning point came in 2024, catalyzed by the U.S. presidential election. Polymarket’s trading volume surged, with monthly activity exploding from $62 million to $2.1 billion. By 2025, the sector’s annual trading volume reached $27.9 billion. Key drivers for this breakthrough include: 1) Improved infrastructure (Layer 2 solutions like Polygon and Base drastically reduced fees and sped up transactions); 2) Regulatory shifts (CFTC approval of platforms like Kalshi and clearer crypto-friendly policies); 3) A new market narrative focused on utility over speculation, amplified by media coverage; and 4) Broader event categories beyond politics. This demonstrates that some "disproven" crypto sectors may not lack PMF but were simply ahead of their time, awaiting better infrastructure and market conditions. This pattern suggests potential future revivals in other early-stage areas like crypto gaming, social, or DePIN.

marsbit12/08 08:31

Prediction Markets: A Decade of Refinement, Who's Next?

marsbit12/08 08:31

A Decade in the Making: Is the Prediction Market's Next Star About to Take the Stage?

The evolution of the crypto prediction market is a notable case of a once-dismissed sector achieving product-market fit after a decade. Early platforms like Gnosis (2015) and Augur (2018) struggled due to high transaction costs, poor user experience, regulatory pressure (e.g., CFTC classifying them as gambling), and immature oracles. By 2020, platforms like Polymarket remained niche, with low trading volumes and TVL. The turning point came in 2024, driven largely by the U.S. presidential election. Polymarket’s election prediction market saw over $2.7 billion in volume, with monthly trading surging from $62 million to $2.1 billion. Key factors for this breakthrough include: improved scalability and lower fees via L2 solutions like Polygon and Base; regulatory shifts, such as CFTC approving platforms like Kalshi; and broader market narratives emphasizing real-world utility over speculation. Prediction markets have evolved from being perceived as gambling to providing real-time probabilistic signals, attracting institutional investment and mainstream media attention. The sector’s growth underscores that early "failure" in crypto may stem from immature infrastructure rather than lack of demand, suggesting other dismissed sectors like crypto gaming or DePIN could similarly rebound under improved conditions.

比推12/08 05:59

A Decade in the Making: Is the Prediction Market's Next Star About to Take the Stage?

比推12/08 05:59

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