# Oracle Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Oracle", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Prediction Markets = Market Manipulation? The Failure of Collective Wisdom and the Battle for Settlement Rights

This article examines the controversial nature of prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, through three case studies, arguing that they are vulnerable to manipulation, groupthink, and battles over settlement authority, rather than being pure expressions of collective wisdom. Case 1: "Who will HBO identify as Satoshi?" Despite leaked evidence and media reports confirming the documentary would identify Peter Todd, the price for "Len Sassaman" remained high due to the community's emotional preference for a more narratively satisfying outcome. This demonstrates how narrative and emotion can cause market prices to deviate from factual evidence. Case 2: "How many gifts will Santa deliver?" Traders discovered a hardcoded number in the NORAD website's source code and drove the price of that outcome above 90%. However, this turned the market into a bet on whether the developers would change the number before the deadline, highlighting how centralized control of information sources creates exploitable opportunities. Case 3: "Israel strikes Gaza" contract. In the final hours, a coordinated effort using unverified screenshots and sell orders crashed the price of "No" to 1-2%, creating a false narrative of an attack. The contract was controversially settled as "Yes," showcasing how narrative, capital, and control over the settlement process can be weaponized to manipulate outcomes. The analysis concludes that prediction markets are not neutral but are instead arenas where media narratives, platform rule design, social media influence, and technical exploitation (e.g., finding hardcoded values) can be leveraged to manipulate prices and settlements, often benefiting organized, resource-rich players at the expense of the crowd.

marsbitAyer 05:06

Prediction Markets = Market Manipulation? The Failure of Collective Wisdom and the Battle for Settlement Rights

marsbitAyer 05:06

Prize Pool 60,000 USDT: "TRON ECO Holiday Odyssey" Annual Ecological Exploration Gala Set to Begin

TRON ECO launches its "Holiday Odyssey" event, a large-scale year-end celebration from December 10, 2025, to January 18, 2026, featuring a total prize pool of 60,000 USDT. The event centers around five core ecosystem projects—SunPump, JUST, AINFT, BitTorrent, and WINkLink—each representing a "holiday planet" with unique interactive tasks. Participants can complete missions to earn rewards, including limited edition TRON ECO merchandise. Key activities include planet-specific tasks such as price prediction with WINkLink, engagement with BitTorrent’s decentralized storage, AI-themed meme creation via SunGenX, a Christmas blind box event with SunPump, and a DeFi strategy competition with JUST. A major "Star Challenge" from December 25 to January 8 offers a 10,000 USDT prize pool supported by sponsors including OSK, Biconomy, and PepeOnTron. Additional features include holiday-themed Twitter Spaces sessions and a joint campaign with HTX exchange boasting over 40,000 USDT in rewards. The event highlights TRON's growing ecosystem, which recently surpassed 250 million accounts and continues to expand across DeFi, AI, and storage sectors. Recent upgrades in AI infrastructure, tokenomics, and user experience tools like SunAgent aim to strengthen TRON’s position as a leading smart contract platform. "Holiday Odyssey" invites the global community to explore TRON’s ecosystem and participate in its end-of-year festivities.

深潮12/11 10:01

Prize Pool 60,000 USDT: "TRON ECO Holiday Odyssey" Annual Ecological Exploration Gala Set to Begin

深潮12/11 10:01

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