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Why Has Bitcoin Risen Against the Trend Amid Turmoil?

Title: Why Bitcoin Defies Market Turmoil and Rises Against the Odds? Amidst the recent Iran conflict, Bitcoin demonstrated unexpected strength, rising 12% while traditional risk assets like the S&P 500 fell 1% and gold dropped 10%. This challenges the conventional view of Bitcoin is a risk-on asset. Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO, argues that Bitcoin’s surge is not due to ignorance of geopolitical tensions or long-term money printing expectations, but is directly driven by the conflict itself. Hougan proposes a dual-investment thesis for Bitcoin: it acts both as a "digital gold" competing in the $38 trillion store-of-value market, and as a speculative bet on becoming a genuine global currency. While the first narrative has dominated the past five years, the second—once a distant possibility—is gaining relevance as global financial systems become increasingly weaponized. The 2022 SWIFT sanctions against Russia marked a turning point, prompting nations to explore alternative financial networks. Iran’s recent move to demand Bitcoin payments for shipping tolls in the Strait of Hormuz exemplifies this shift. Such developments increase the probability of Bitcoin being used as a neutral, apolitical settlement medium and amplify global monetary system volatility. This dual role suggests Bitcoin’s potential market extends beyond gold’s $38 trillion valuation. Its pricing is now influenced not only by liquidity or tech stock trends but also by growing uncertainties in the international financial architecture. As geopolitical friction elevates Bitcoin’s monetary attributes, its upside potential may be significantly revalued.

marsbit04/15 20:31