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If U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Above 5%, Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?

An article explores the potential impact of rising U.S. Treasury yields above 5% on Bitcoin's price, suggesting it could fall below $50,000. The analysis is prompted by the recent U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which has driven oil prices higher and fueled inflation fears, pushing bond yields up. Historically, prolonged oil-related conflicts lead to sustained yield increases and pressure on risk assets like stocks. Given Bitcoin's high correlation with the S&P 500, similar downward pressure is expected. Technical analysis indicates a bearish flag pattern for Bitcoin, with a break below it potentially leading to a drop to $50,000 or lower. Prediction markets also show a high probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 in 2026. However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes notes that prolonged conflict might force the Fed to print more money, which could ultimately benefit Bitcoin.

marsbit03/25 09:36

If U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Above 5%, Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?

marsbit03/25 09:36

Oil Shock Not Yet Arrived, Stock Market Bubble Already Looms High

Economist Steve Hanke warns that while oil price shocks from Middle East tensions are concerning, the real threat lies in the U.S. stock market's extreme overvaluation and the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policies. Unlike the 1979 oil crisis, today's oil supply disruption risks are lower due to structural changes: Iran's global oil share dropped from 8.5% to 5.2%, U.S. production increased, and oil intensity per GDP fell sharply. Hanke emphasizes that inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon, not directly caused by oil prices, and criticizes the Fed for resuming quantitative easing amid rising M2 supply. He argues the equity bubble—with P/E ratios near 29x versus 8x in 1979—is highly vulnerable to external shocks. Geopolitically, he dismisses "de-dollarization" narratives as baseless, highlights the stability of dollar-pegged currencies like Hong Kong's, and warns that U.S.-led regime change efforts in Iran are historically futile and risk creating long-term global animosity. The broader economic impact includes potential wealth destruction from market corrections and misguided policies like tariffs harming employment.

比推03/12 04:20

Oil Shock Not Yet Arrived, Stock Market Bubble Already Looms High

比推03/12 04:20

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