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The Ambitions of Kalshi, MTS, and a16z

"Kalshi, MTS, and a16z's Ambition" explores prediction markets as a focal point for investors in 2025. The article traces their intellectual evolution from Hayek's ideas on distributed knowledge to Robin Hanson's logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR), which incentivizes truth-telling. Venture firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) invested in prediction market platform Kalshi, valuing it at $220 billion. a16z argues these markets offer "presence"—a way for individuals to actively engage with and influence world events through financial bets, countering modern detachment. This transforms participants into "super observers" and grants the platform authority in defining event truth and importance. The piece positions prediction markets as a key component of a16z's envisioned "new media" empire. This strategy involves rapid, high-intensity content across platforms to "take over the timeline." Media company MTS exemplifies this with its constant news livestreams. Ultimately, Kalshi's value lies in its "reality distortion field"—the power to shape perception through the credibility of real-money markets, making it a potent tool within a16z's broader media and influence architecture.

marsbitHace 7 hora(s)

The Ambitions of Kalshi, MTS, and a16z

marsbitHace 7 hora(s)

What Exactly Is a16z's 'New Media'? New Media Is a Migration of Power

The article explores a16z's concept of "new media," arguing it represents a fundamental shift in power dynamics rather than just new content formats. It posits that in an era of content oversupply and near-zero distribution costs, attention and trust have become the new scarcities. The core value is no longer mere exposure but the ability to influence decisions—termed "agency"—the power to make others act based on your judgment. The piece contrasts old media (centralized, institution-owned, creators as employees) with new media (decentralized, individual-as-node, creators building direct influence). This transforms media from an institutional asset into personal capital and a tool of power. a16z treats this media capability as core infrastructure, recognizing that the traditional model of "capital → company → market" has flipped. Now, "agency → community → market → capital" is key, as capital alone no longer guarantees action. The article concludes by introducing Internet Capital Markets (ICM) as the next evolution, solving new media's flaw by turning influence and consensus into tradable, ownable capital structures—moving from "right to distribute" to "right to price." The ultimate leverage shifts from code to new media: scalable narrative, judgment, and taste.

marsbit01/23 08:41

What Exactly Is a16z's 'New Media'? New Media Is a Migration of Power

marsbit01/23 08:41

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