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Metrics Ventures Market Observation: Talk is Cheap

This monthly market analysis extends its timeline to incorporate critical July comments from the Fed Chair, noting that bond markets have already priced in perceived policy shortcomings. The report observes a growing divergence: equity markets, after some deleveraging, continue a "trust-based" rally, while bond and currency markets signal persistent distrust. Precious metals bottoming suggests a central bank consensus that the era of "competitive currency devaluation" is ending, with verbal interventions losing power. Looking forward to Q3-Q4, the analysis remains bullish on supply-constrained global resources like copper and power, as well as gold, which prices ongoing monetary失信. It argues that digital assets are unlikely to see major outperformance until excess liquidity is released and AI growth rates are fully priced. Key market views include: 1. Commodities like gold remain primary liquidity absorbers over Bitcoin, with recent consolidation seen as healthy. 2. The bull trend for RMB-denominated assets (e.g., STAR 50 Index) is firmly established. 3. Key resource country indices and currencies are near inflection points, with spot copper already at new highs. The report suggests resource equities, particularly in China's market, are at the end of their consolidation phase, offering attractive valuations with embedded optionality on rising metal prices. It highlights the predictive significance of recent US-Japan FX interventions and Treasury-Fed dynamics, suggesting a shift towards less communication and data management to maintain stability. A long position in resource assets is presented as a positive expected-value strategy over a multi-year horizon.

marsbitHace 22 hora(s)

Metrics Ventures Market Observation: Talk is Cheap

marsbitHace 22 hora(s)

Podcast Notes | U.S. Stocks Hit Another Record High: Senior Fund Manager Nancy Tengler's Portfolio Picks for the Second Half of the Year

Podcast Summary: Veteran fund manager Nancy Tengler (CEO/CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments) discusses her investment outlook for the second half of the year, amidst the S&P 500 reaching new highs. She is bullish on the market, citing strong, productivity-driven earnings growth and the current economic transformation. Tengler emphasizes that this rally differs from the 1990s bubble, as fundamentals (earnings) and price appreciation have been aligned. She outlines four key investment themes: 1. **AI Infrastructure:** Companies like Quanta Services (PWR), GE Vernova (GEV), Williams (WMB), and Deere (DE) to benefit from massive capital expenditures ($7.5 trillion over five years) in data centers and electrification. 2. **Growth Stocks at Value Prices:** Names like Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN), which she views as undervalued based on forward earnings and growth rates (e.g., NVDA's PEG ratio of 0.25). 3. **Cybersecurity:** Prefers CrowdStrike (CRWD) over Palo Alto Networks (PANW) while acknowledging growing competition. 4. **Financials & Consumer Discretionary:** Sees catch-up potential in Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan (JPM), Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), Starbucks (SBUX), and Home Depot (HD). She avoids sectors like consumer staples, utilities, and most REITs in this strong growth environment. Key risks are a potential credit market breakdown or a resurgence of inflation. Tengler believes market leadership will broaden beyond mega-cap tech and advises long-term investors to stay invested.

marsbitAyer 05:21

Podcast Notes | U.S. Stocks Hit Another Record High: Senior Fund Manager Nancy Tengler's Portfolio Picks for the Second Half of the Year

marsbitAyer 05:21

Top Manager at GSR Names Conditions for New Bull Rally

A top manager at GSR, Spencer Hallarn, states that the next major bull run in the cryptocurrency market depends on two key conditions: a cooling of the current hype surrounding the artificial intelligence (AI) sector and the start of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. He explains that the AI sector is absorbing a significant portion of available capital, diverting attention and funds away from crypto. Hallarn believes Bitcoin would lead any rally, as other cryptocurrencies need to prove their value by delivering on long-promised use cases. He notes the current market is sluggish, with low trading volumes tied to low prices and market capitalization. On a declining market, clients are more disciplined in hedging and planning, showing increased interest in over-the-counter risk management solutions and diversification, including through tokenized real-world assets (RWA). Hallarn views tokenization more as a challenge to traditional banking infrastructure than merely a new trading product. The article highlights uncertainty regarding Fed policy, with experts cited suggesting a potential rate hike in September 2026 due to persistent inflation, contrary to market hopes for easing. Meanwhile, AI hype continues unabated, with venture funding in the sector soaring to $300 billion in Q1 2026. The anticipated IPOs of major AI firms like Anthropic and OpenAI could further draw liquidity away from cryptocurrencies.

cryptonews.ru08/12 11:52

Top Manager at GSR Names Conditions for New Bull Rally

cryptonews.ru08/12 11:52

Can the Price of Ethereum Break Through the $2000 Mark? Discussions About EIP-8361 Continue

As of August 5th, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $1,800, stuck below a descending trendline. It faces resistance between $1,887 and $1,918; a breakout above could propel the price towards the key psychological level of $2,000. On the daily chart, ETH trades below the 20-day SMA at $1,887.53 and the 100-day SMA at $1,918.22, remaining below three of the four major moving averages. However, it stays above the 50-day SMA at $1,788.07, continuing its recovery from June lows near $1,500. The 4-hour chart shows ETH approaching a breakout zone of $1,875-$1,885, though momentum remains weak without a clear uptrend. Market discussions continue around EIP-8361, a proposal aiming to burn an increasing share of consensus-layer rewards as the staking ratio rises, with full burning proposed after a 50% staking share is reached. This proposal is not yet approved and opinions within the ecosystem vary. Analyst Michael van de Poppe notes $1,800 as a critical support level, with a break above $2,000 potentially opening targets of $2,300 and $2,500. Ultimately, ETH's ability to sustainably recover past $2,000 appears more dependent on market demand and institutional investment than on EIP-8361.

cryptonews.ru08/05 18:01

Can the Price of Ethereum Break Through the $2000 Mark? Discussions About EIP-8361 Continue

cryptonews.ru08/05 18:01

Cardano Price Forecast for August 2026: Will ADA Triangle Breakout Happen Before or After the CLARITY Act Deadline?

Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.1642, testing the apex of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, which signals an impending directional move. Technical analysis identifies key resistance at the 20-day EMA ($0.1650) and the triangle's upper trendline. A breakout above could target the 50-day EMA at $0.1732, with a cup-and-handle pattern potentially forming. Support lies at the SuperTrend indicator ($0.1536) and the June low of $0.1386. Historically, August has been a weak month for ADA, with a median return of -12.8%. A weekly forecast outlines a volatile month influenced by the imminent August 8th deadline for the U.S. CLARITY Act vote, potential SEC regulatory action, and renewed geopolitical tensions following Iran's missile strike. Key bullish catalysts include the potential passage of the CLARITY Act and a major upgrade integrating Cardano's developer documentation and tools into AI coding assistants like Claude, which could significantly boost developer adoption. On-chain data also shows whale accumulation, a potential Wyckoff accumulation signal. The price forecast presents two scenarios: a bullish breakout above $0.1650 targeting $0.17-$0.1732 if the CLARITY Act passes and AI integration fuels momentum, or a bearish break below $0.1536 toward $0.1386 if the bill fails, seasonal weakness persists, and risk appetite diminishes.

cryptonews.ru07/30 13:01

Cardano Price Forecast for August 2026: Will ADA Triangle Breakout Happen Before or After the CLARITY Act Deadline?

cryptonews.ru07/30 13:01

Pi Network Price Forecast for August 2026: Will the August 11th Deadline Become a Catalyst for PI's Recovery?

Pi Network Price Forecast for August 2026: Will the August 11 Deadline Catalyze a Recovery? Pi Network (PI) traded at $0.0830 on July 30, up 1.13%, attempting to stabilize above its all-time low. The price is rebounding from the lower Bollinger Band around $0.07172. All key EMAs (20, 50, 100, 200-day) remain in a downtrend above the current price, with the 20-day EMA at $0.08810 acting as the first significant resistance level to confirm a recovery. August presents two key narratives. First, the Pi Core Team launched Protocol 26 with a hard deadline of August 11 for all node operators to upgrade; failure to do so results in disconnection. This is the final precursor to Protocol 27, a major technical upgrade planned for 2026. Second, a community debate challenges the widespread "GCV" (Global Consensus Value) concept, with a member stating there is no official GCV mechanism and that Mainnet apps price services independently. This could pressure price if holders selling on disillusionment. The 10-day price forecast table suggests a range of $0.072-$0.095 for early August amid Protocol 26 deadline pressure, $0.080-$0.110 in mid-August post-deadline clarity, and $0.085-$0.125 in late August, pending broader crypto market direction. The bullish case requires smooth Protocol 26 migration, clear Protocol 27 announcement, resolution of the GCV debate without major holder exits, and a close above the 20-day EMA. The bearish scenario involves node upgrade difficulties, GCV-related selling pressure, continued supply pressure from 775.8 million PI scheduled to unlock by December, and a fall back to or below the $0.07172 support zone.

cryptonews.ru07/30 11:27

Pi Network Price Forecast for August 2026: Will the August 11th Deadline Become a Catalyst for PI's Recovery?

cryptonews.ru07/30 11:27

Wall Street Rushes into Ethereum, So Why Is the ETH Price Continuing to Weaken?

Wall Street is increasingly embracing the Ethereum network, with major financial institutions like JPMorgan, Robinhood, and Morgan Stanley launching Ethereum-linked products and services. Despite this institutional adoption and a major upcoming network upgrade called "Lean Ethereum" aimed at enhancing privacy and quantum resistance, the price of ETH remains weak, trading over 60% below its all-time high. Analysts point to a disconnect between positive fundamentals and price action, citing weakened investor demand and persistent outflows from Ethereum ETFs. A key challenge is Ethereum's scaling model: while layer-2 networks boost transaction capacity and reduce costs for users, they divert fee revenue away from the Ethereum mainnet, potentially weakening the economic value accrual to ETH. Price predictions for ETH vary widely, from Citi's subdued 12-month target to much more bullish long-term forecasts, highlighting the uncertainty around how much value will ultimately flow to ETH holders even as Ethereum cements its role as critical financial infrastructure.

marsbit07/30 11:26

Wall Street Rushes into Ethereum, So Why Is the ETH Price Continuing to Weaken?

marsbit07/30 11:26

September 1st, A Major Chip Price Hike

On July 29, 2026 (US time), Qualcomm reported its Q3 FY2026 (Q2 CY) results. Revenue reached $9.95 billion, up 4% and beating estimates, but net profit fell 25% YoY to $2 billion. The "revenue up, profit down" trend is attributed to rising costs across semiconductor manufacturing, testing, packaging, and materials. In response, CEO Cristiano Amon announced price increases for all chip products, effective September 1, to pass on costs and restore historical profit margins. The stock fell over 5% in after-hours trading due to weaker-than-expected Q4 profit guidance. Qualcomm's core chip business (QCT) revenue was $8.5 billion, down 5% YoY. Handset revenue dropped 20% to $5.09 billion, reflecting a weak global smartphone market with declining shipments. In contrast, Automotive revenue surged 61% to $1.59 billion, marking 23 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, and IoT revenue grew 9% to $1.83 billion. The licensing division (QTL) revenue was $1.28 billion, down 3%. Facing smartphone headwinds and a reduced component share in future iPhones, Qualcomm is aggressively diversifying. It is betting heavily on the data center AI market, maintaining a target of $5 billion in data center revenue for FY2027. The company completed the acquisition of AI software firm Modular to build an open software platform for generative AI. For Q4 FY2026, Qualcomm forecasts revenue between $9.7B and $10.5B, roughly in line with expectations. However, non-GAAP EPS guidance of $2.05-$2.25 fell short of the $2.36 analyst consensus. Management expects the chip price increases to gradually improve margins after September 1, but near-term profitability pressure from costs and the weak handset market persists.

marsbit07/30 08:11

September 1st, A Major Chip Price Hike

marsbit07/30 08:11

Institutional Analysis on Gold Price: Persistent Support at $4000, Has Gold Hit Bottom?

Despite a sharp 11.7% drop in June and repeated tests near $4000/oz, State Street Investment Management maintains its $5000/oz gold price target for early 2027. The report acknowledges near-term headwinds: Western ETF outflows reached $18.7bn over four months, higher U.S. interest rate expectations increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, and cash in money market funds offers competition. Consequently, the probability of a consolidation scenario ($4000-$4750) has been raised to 25%. The core bullish structure remains intact, primarily driven by sustained central bank buying. Global central banks are expected to purchase 680-820 tonnes in 2026, providing a stable demand floor for diversification away from the U.S. dollar and Treasury debt. Gold's share of global reserves has now surpassed that of U.S. Treasuries. Asian and Chinese physical demand offers additional support, with strong imports and local premiums. However, for a sustained rally towards $5000, a halt in Western ETF outflows is seen as crucial. The base case (70% probability) still projects a move to $4750-$5500 within 6-9 months, but the path is likely to be volatile, with high rates initially capping upside momentum.

marsbit07/28 04:31

Institutional Analysis on Gold Price: Persistent Support at $4000, Has Gold Hit Bottom?

marsbit07/28 04:31

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Is Bitcoin's Resistance Band About to Break Through or Be Rejected for the Sixth Time?

Bitcoin is trading around $65,457, consolidating between a key bear market resistance line (rejecting price since February) and its cluster of EMAs around $64,475-$65,045. Key resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at $66,578, with further resistance at the 100-day EMA ($67,717). Support lies at the EMAs and the lower Bollinger Band at $62,243. A potential bullish catalyst is Iran's signal for a ceasefire, which could reduce geopolitical risk. Analyst Benjamin Cowen draws parallels to 2018, warning of a potential rejection and August-September decline if the resistance isn't broken. Anthony Scaramucci remains long-term bullish, citing Bitcoin's advantages over gold. The outlook hinges on whether BTC can close above the $66,578 resistance or faces another rejection.

cryptonews.ru07/27 13:22

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Is Bitcoin's Resistance Band About to Break Through or Be Rejected for the Sixth Time?

cryptonews.ru07/27 13:22

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