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Institutional Adoption of Prediction Markets Stuck at the Third Stage

Prediction markets are transitioning from niche platforms focused on elections and sports to mainstream financial tools, as highlighted at Kalshi Research's inaugural conference. While sports still dominate trading volume (around 80%), non-sports categories like macroeconomics, politics, and entertainment are growing faster, signaling a shift from entertainment-based trading to information and risk management tools. Institutions, including Wall Street firms, are increasingly using prediction markets for data reference (Stage 1 adoption), with some progressing to system integration (Stage 2). However, full-scale trading (Stage 3) is limited due to the lack of margin trading, requiring full collateral for positions—a barrier for leverage-dependent entities. Kalshi is working with regulators to introduce margin mechanisms. Key insights from participants like Goldman Sachs and CNBC emphasize the value of real-time pricing for events (e.g., Fed decisions, tariffs), providing benchmarks previously unavailable. The path to maturity mirrors historical financial instruments like options, with expectations that prediction markets will become institutional staples within five years. Political leaders, including Trump and Schumer, now cite Kalshi odds, underscoring its growing influence. The platform rewards domain expertise over traditional finance backgrounds, attracting diverse participants from fields like music and poker. Ultimately, prediction markets are evolving into critical infrastructure for pricing uncertainty.

marsbitHace 6 hora(s)

Institutional Adoption of Prediction Markets Stuck at the Third Stage

marsbitHace 6 hora(s)

Institutional Adoption of Prediction Markets Stuck at the Third Stage

Prediction markets are transitioning from niche platforms focused on elections and sports to mainstream tools for information and risk management. While events like the Super Bowl still dominate trading volume, non-sports categories—such as macroeconomics, politics, and entertainment—are growing faster and attracting institutional interest. Key drivers include the need for real-time benchmarks on uncertain events (e.g., election outcomes or policy changes), which traditional markets lack. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and CNBC are already using prediction market data for decision-making, though most remain in the early stages of adoption. The path to full institutional integration involves three phases: data integration, system compliance, and active trading. The current barrier to large-scale trading is the lack of margin trading, requiring full collateral for positions—a limitation platforms like Kalshi are working to address. Experts compare prediction markets to the early days of options trading, anticipating they will become a standard, if mundane, financial infrastructure. Political leaders and institutions are increasingly referencing these markets, signaling their growing credibility. The future lies in their evolution from speculative arenas to essential tools for hedging and pricing uncertainty.

Odaily星球日报Hace 6 hora(s)

Institutional Adoption of Prediction Markets Stuck at the Third Stage

Odaily星球日报Hace 6 hora(s)

‘This is how Bitcoin begins’ – Square enables BTC payments, but is it adoption?

Square, a subsidiary of Block Inc., has announced it will automatically enable Bitcoin payments for small businesses, aiming to simplify crypto adoption and push Bitcoin into mainstream commerce. This move allows customers to pay with Bitcoin while merchants receive settlements in U.S. dollars by default, protecting them from price volatility. Jack Dorsey’s company sees this as a step toward Bitcoin becoming everyday money. The announcement positively impacted Block’s stock price, which rose nearly 2%. Despite ongoing challenges in the crypto market—such as regulatory uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and user confusion around taxation—Square’s initiative represents a significant effort to boost Bitcoin’s practical use in daily transactions.

ambcrypto03/31 11:35

‘This is how Bitcoin begins’ – Square enables BTC payments, but is it adoption?

ambcrypto03/31 11:35

Crypto Tycoons Grace the Cover of 'Vanity Fair', Only to Face Widespread Ridicule Online

Crypto industry leaders, including Cathie Wood (ARK Invest), Olaf Carlson-Wee (Polychain), and Michael Novogratz (Galaxy Digital), were featured in a *Vanity Fair* cover story titled “Crypto’s True Believers Want to Be Taken Seriously.” However, the article and its accompanying photos were widely mocked across social media. Rather than portraying the figures as serious innovators, the publication depicted them as eccentric and out-of-touch billionaires—highlighting their interests in extraterrestrial life, extreme survivalism, and going barefoot in public. Critics within the crypto community accused *Vanity Fair* of intentional ridicule, pointing to unflattering photo compositions and dismissive writing that reinforced negative stereotypes. The piece has sparked debate about the crypto industry’s relationship with mainstream media. Some, like Noelle Acheson, acknowledged the awkward portrayal but suggested it reflects how the industry is perceived externally. Others, including Jinelle D’Lima of Nozomi, argued that seeking validation from traditional gateways like *Vanity Fair* contradicts crypto’s original anti-establishment ethos. The incident underscores a cultural disconnect: despite the industry’s financial influence and political lobbying, it remains marginalized in mainstream cultural narratives. The backlash serves as a reminder that crypto’s real strength lies in its technology and decentralized values—not in mainstream approval.

比推03/18 15:00

Crypto Tycoons Grace the Cover of 'Vanity Fair', Only to Face Widespread Ridicule Online

比推03/18 15:00

Overnight, Crypto Moguls Were Severely Mocked by 'Vanity Fair'

Crypto industry leaders, including Cathie Wood (ARK Invest), Olaf Carlson-Wee (Polychain), and Michael Novogratz (Galaxy Digital), faced widespread mockery after a Vanity Fair cover story portrayed them in an unflattering light. The article, titled “Crypto’s True Believers Demand to Be Taken Seriously,” depicted the billionaires as eccentric and out-of-touch—highlighting their interests in alien life, extreme survivalism, and going barefoot, while questioning their influence on global power structures. Industry insiders criticized the piece for reinforcing negative perceptions. A former fashion photographer noted the deliberately demeaning composition of the photos, such as camera angles that diminished Wood’s stature and shadowy, unflattering shots of Novogratz. The coverage was seen as a deliberate attempt to ridicule the crypto elite rather than engage with the industry seriously. The incident sparked broader reflection: some argued that seeking validation from traditional media contradicts crypto’s original anti-establishment ethos. As one founder noted, “We weren’t built for Vanity Fair or Forbes. We were built to rebel against everything they represent.” The episode underscores the tension between crypto’s growing political influence and its struggle for cultural legitimacy.

marsbit03/18 11:27

Overnight, Crypto Moguls Were Severely Mocked by 'Vanity Fair'

marsbit03/18 11:27

Prediction Market ETFs: A Foray into the Mainstream or Playing with Fire?

Several major ETF issuers, including Bitwise Asset Management, GraniteShares, and Roundhill Investments, have recently filed applications with the U.S. SEC to launch prediction market ETFs. These ETFs are designed to track the outcomes of U.S. political events, such as the 2028 presidential election and the 2026 midterms, allowing investors to trade election probabilities through traditional brokerage accounts like Robinhood or Fidelity. Prediction markets aggregate crowd-sourced forecasts using real-money contracts, where prices reflect the market’s consensus probability of an event occurring. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have demonstrated strong predictive accuracy in events like the 2024 U.S. election, often outperforming traditional polls due to their incentive-based structure. The proposed ETFs would track the price movements of these prediction market contracts, with share values fluctuating between $0 and $1. If the predicted event occurs, the corresponding “Yes” ETF would settle near $1; otherwise, it would approach $0. Unlike Bitcoin ETFs, which track asset prices, these are binary outcome products, more akin to options or insurance. If approved, these ETFs could bring prediction markets into mainstream finance, offering new tools for hedging and macro risk management. However, concerns remain about potential market manipulation, public perception influence, and regulatory approval, as the SEC may view them as gambling-like instruments. The move represents a significant test of how “probability as an asset” is accepted in traditional markets.

marsbit02/22 12:46

Prediction Market ETFs: A Foray into the Mainstream or Playing with Fire?

marsbit02/22 12:46

Prediction Market ETFs: A Foray into the Mainstream or Playing with Fire?

A new wave of ETF applications has been submitted to the SEC by asset managers including Bitwise, GraniteShares, and Roundhill Investments. These ETFs aim to track the outcomes of U.S. political elections—such as the 2028 presidential race and 2026 midterm control of Congress—by packaging prediction market contracts into tradable securities. This would allow mainstream investors to use traditional brokerage accounts to bet on electoral results, similar to platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi, but within the regulated financial system. Prediction markets aggregate crowd-sourced probabilities through financial incentives, often demonstrating stronger predictive accuracy than traditional polls, as seen during the 2024 U.S. election. The proposed ETFs would reflect binary event probabilities, with share prices fluctuating between $0 and $1. If the predicted outcome occurs, the ETF value approaches $1; otherwise, it nears zero. Most funds would liquidate after the event settles. This move could significantly broaden participation and liquidity, potentially making prediction markets a tool for hedging policy risks or macro strategies. However, it also raises regulatory and ethical concerns, including potential market influence on public perception and the risk of manipulation. The SEC’s approval remains uncertain, as it may view these products as blurring the line between investing and gambling. The outcome of these applications could signal a major shift in how probabilistic events are traded and perceived in mainstream finance.

Odaily星球日报02/22 12:43

Prediction Market ETFs: A Foray into the Mainstream or Playing with Fire?

Odaily星球日报02/22 12:43

$70 Million for a Downtime: ai.com Crashes Immediately After Launch

A summary of the article titled "7,000 万美元买了个宕机：ai.com 上线即翻车". The article details the story behind the record-breaking $70 million purchase of the premium domain ai.com. The buyer was revealed to be Kris Marszalek, the co-founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com, not an AI giant like OpenAI or xAI as previously speculated. This transaction, finalized in April 2025 and paid for in cryptocurrency, ended a years-long bidding war for the highly sought-after domain, which had previously been linked to both OpenAI and Elon Musk's xAI as a marketing tactic by its former owner. Following the purchase, Marszalek announced the launch of a new AI product on the domain, coinciding with the Super Bowl. The platform promised AI Agents that could perform tasks like stock trading and workflow automation. However, the highly anticipated launch was marred by technical issues, as the ai.com website experienced significant downtime and a "504" error within its first 48 hours of going live, leading to public criticism. The site was later restored, allowing users to register subdomains. The article concludes by contextualizing this extravagant purchase within a broader trend of crypto executives seeking mainstream legitimacy through high-profile investments. It cites other examples, including Aave's founder buying a multi-million-dollar mansion, Tether investing profits into various sectors, and Justin Sun acquiring hydroelectric power plants in Norway.

比推02/10 06:12

$70 Million for a Downtime: ai.com Crashes Immediately After Launch

比推02/10 06:12

From a $70 Million Sky-High Transaction to a First-Day Crash: The "Amateur" Debut of ai.com

An article titled "From a $70 Million Record-Bomain Deal to Launch Day Downtime: The Rocky Debut of AI.com" reports that the highly sought-after domain AI.com, which had been at the center of speculation and bidding among AI giants, was acquired for $70 million in April 2025 by Kris Marszalek, co-founder and CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com. The transaction, paid for in cryptocurrency, set a new public record for domain sales. The domain, first registered in 1993, had previously been linked to OpenAI and later to Elon Musk’s xAI in what was seen as a marketing tactic to drive up its value. Marszalek stated that he received even higher offers after the purchase but chose to retain the domain, believing it would be crucial for future business credibility. Over Super Bowl weekend, Marszalek launched AI.com, promoting it as a platform where users could deploy AI agents for tasks like stock trading and workflow automation. However, within 48 hours of going live, the site experienced significant downtime, drawing criticism and mockery online, particularly from an Nvidia engineer who highlighted the irony of such a high-value domain failing under load. The article also touches on how other crypto executives are diversifying their investments—from buying real estate and power plants to expanding business operations—signaling a broader trend of cryptocurrency leaders integrating into mainstream economic and technological landscapes.

Odaily星球日报02/09 10:12

From a $70 Million Sky-High Transaction to a First-Day Crash: The "Amateur" Debut of ai.com

Odaily星球日报02/09 10:12

Bitcoin Is Getting Banked — 60% Of Leading US Banks Are Ready

Bitcoin is increasingly being integrated into mainstream US banking, with a River study revealing that 60% of the top 25 banks are developing Bitcoin-related services, including custody, trading, and client products. This shift from caution to action follows clearer regulations, spot ETF approvals, and growing institutional demand. Major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are already piloting or launching crypto services. Clients may soon access Bitcoin seamlessly through existing banking channels, with banks often partnering with specialists to manage risk and compliance. Regulatory changes and a more favorable political climate are encouraging this adoption, though implementation speed will vary by institution.

bitcoinist01/28 04:32

Bitcoin Is Getting Banked — 60% Of Leading US Banks Are Ready

bitcoinist01/28 04:32

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