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The Backside of Musk's Trillion-Dollar Fortune: 85% Can't Be Sold

Elon Musk becomes the world's first trillionaire, driven by SpaceX's IPO valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. However, his vast wealth is largely illiquid: he holds over 85% voting control, likely through super-voting shares that are subject to lock-ups and selling restrictions. While his net worth surpasses $1 trillion across SpaceX, Tesla, and private holdings, only a tiny fraction (potentially under 2% annually) could be converted to cash without jeopardizing control and market confidence. SpaceX's IPO also creates paper millionaires for roughly 4,400 employees, but their holdings face lock-up periods, exercise costs, and taxes, delaying and reducing actual cash proceeds. Only 4.2% of total shares are initially available for public trading, making the stock price highly sensitive to limited net buying or selling pressure. A major test will come when lock-ups expire for the remaining 96% of shares. The article contrasts SpaceX's wealth distribution with potential AI IPOs. Anthropic and OpenAI could generate employee wealth pools 20 times larger than SpaceX's in paper value, due to their higher valuations relative to revenue and potentially more distributed ownership. However, sustaining those high price-to-sales multiples post-IPO is uncertain. A key financial puzzle for SpaceX investors is its xAI unit. While it has locked in an estimated $26 billion in annual compute revenue from clients like Anthropic and Google, the unit reported a $6.4 billion loss in 2025. More critically, estimated annual capital expenditures of ~$30.8 billion exceed that revenue. The long-term viability of SpaceX's AI narrative hinges on whether this compute income can eventually cover the unit's massive ongoing investments and losses.

链捕手Hace 15 hora(s)

The Backside of Musk's Trillion-Dollar Fortune: 85% Can't Be Sold

链捕手Hace 15 hora(s)

Who Will Take Over After SpaceX's IPO?

SpaceX is set to go public on June 12 with a $1.8 trillion valuation, but only about 5.56 billion shares (4.2% of the total) will be initially available for trading. Buy-side pressure is expected in three distinct waves. First, the IPO subscription at a fixed $135 per share, which is oversubscribed by nearly 4 times. Second, immediate secondary market trading post-listing. Third, and most significant, the forced buying by passive index funds. The Nasdaq 100 index has modified its rules to include SpaceX just 15 trading days after its IPO, despite its small float, which will compel hundreds of tracking funds to buy large quantities of stock. However, this initial supply shortage will not last. A staged lock-up release is designed for the approximately 54% of shares held by VCs, early employees, and other insiders (excluding Elon Musk's 42%, which is locked for 366 days). Releases begin after the Q2 earnings report, with subsequent unlocks at multiple intervals up to 180 days post-IPO. This means selling pressure from insiders will gradually increase throughout the latter half of the year. A key counterbalance is scheduled for mid-December during the Nasdaq 100's annual rebalancing. By then, the public float will have expanded significantly, forcing index funds to buy more shares, potentially providing institutional support after months of insider selling.

marsbitAyer 00:45

Who Will Take Over After SpaceX's IPO?

marsbitAyer 00:45

SpaceX's Core Window for Listed Trading: July 7th Nasdaq Inclusion Date and Post-Q2 Earnings Lockup Expiration

SpaceX is set for its historic IPO on June 12 at $135 per share, with a paper valuation of $1.75 trillion. A key insight from analyst Alexandra Mertz highlights the IPO's unique structure, where an extremely low initial public float of only 4.3% is expected to create a significant supply vacuum. This scarcity is set to collide with massive forced buying from index funds like Vanguard, CRSP, and FTSE Russell, which are scheduled to start adding SpaceX to their indices as early as June 18/22 and July 7 (NASDAQ 100 inclusion). This could propel the stock price sharply higher, with AI models like Grok predicting a potential doubling from the IPO price around July 7. Another critical date is the post-Q2 earnings call (estimated late July), when early insider shareholders (excluding Elon Musk, who has a 366-day lock-up) become eligible to sell. However, actual selling pressure may be only 10-15% of shares, as major holders like Ron Baron and BlackRock have expressed intentions to hold or buy more. The discussion introduces a compelling "Goldilocks scenario": a potential stock-for-stock merger announcement between SpaceX and Tesla in the window between the July 7 price peak and the late-July unlock period. This timing could help Elon Musk manage a personal $7 billion tax liability related to exercising Tesla stock options by August 15, while leveraging high valuations for both companies. Furthermore, the inclusion of former Tesla adversaries like Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan as SpaceX IPO underwriters is seen as a strategic move to secure their "yes" votes for a potential Tesla merger approval in a November shareholder vote. The rationale for SpaceX acquiring Tesla, rather than the reverse, centers on SpaceX's superior governance structure, which offers Musk stronger control through super-voting shares and mandatory arbitration clauses, protecting the combined entity from activist investors and legal challenges.

marsbit06/10 12:20

SpaceX's Core Window for Listed Trading: July 7th Nasdaq Inclusion Date and Post-Q2 Earnings Lockup Expiration

marsbit06/10 12:20

Whale.io Launches Whale Printer: $WHALE Token Staking

Whale.io has launched "Whale Printer," a new on-platform staking system for its native $WHALE token. The feature allows eligible holders to lock their tokens for fixed periods to earn predetermined rewards. Three lock-up options are available: 90 days with a 1.2x multiplier (107.8% APY), 180 days with a 1.5x multiplier (129% APY), and 365 days with a 3x multiplier (200% APY). Multipliers and rewards are fixed at the start of the staking period. Rewards are distributed from a dedicated, non-replenishing pool of 20 billion $WHALE (20% of total supply). Once this pool is exhausted, the Whale Printer will close permanently, incentivizing early participation. Users can stake tokens directly from their Whale.io account balance, with support for up to 10 concurrent staking positions per account. Early withdrawal is not permitted. $WHALE is the utility token for the Whale.io crypto casino and sportsbook ecosystem, distributed through gameplay and user activity rather than private sales. The staking mechanism adds new functionality and a reward structure for token holders. Whale Printer is now accessible via whale.io/token.

TheNewsCrypto06/03 14:08

Whale.io Launches Whale Printer: $WHALE Token Staking

TheNewsCrypto06/03 14:08

Morningstar Valuates SpaceX at Only $780B, Less Than Half of IPO Target, 'Largest IPO Ever' Overpriced?

Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billion ahead of its IPO, far below the company's $1.75 trillion target. The research firm's DCF model values the core launch and Starlink businesses at $611 billion and assigns only a $170 billion probability-weighted valuation to the AI segment (including xAI). Analyst Nicolas Owens calls the company "severely overvalued," citing a near-100x price-to-sales ratio based on 2025 revenue. Despite the bearish long-term view, Morningstar acknowledges short-term price support from low float and potential rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. The IPO is set for June 12, featuring an unusual tiered lock-up expiration that could create selling pressure over time.

marsbit06/03 05:01

Morningstar Valuates SpaceX at Only $780B, Less Than Half of IPO Target, 'Largest IPO Ever' Overpriced?

marsbit06/03 05:01

Ethereum Foundation Locks Up More ETH As Staking Activity Intensifies

Ethereum Foundation Locks Up More ETH As Staking Activity Intensifies Staking activity on the Ethereum network is gaining significant attention, particularly as large institutional investors increase their participation. A notable development is the Ethereum Foundation's recent move to stake $42.2 million worth of ETH, signaling strong confidence in the network's long-term economics and security. This aligns with founder Vitalik Buterin's statements about changing ETH's direction, a pivot that could redefine the entire ecosystem. Despite bearish market conditions and price volatility, staking participation continues to grow substantially. Nearly 3 million ETH are currently awaiting staking, with an entry queue of around 50 days, while the exit queue has nearly vanished—indicating strong holder confidence. Total ETH staked has now exceeded 38 million, representing over 31% of the entire supply. This trend suggests a classic market disconnection where weakening price action contrasts with strengthening network participation, as supply is being locked away and demand builds.

bitcoinist04/01 03:01

Ethereum Foundation Locks Up More ETH As Staking Activity Intensifies

bitcoinist04/01 03:01

Those Who Can't Buy Anthropic Are Driving Its Shadow Stock to 16 Times Its Value

A new closed-end fund, VCX, listed on the NYSE, saw its share price surge to 16 times its net asset value due to high demand for exposure to Anthropic, which holds a 21% stake in the fund. Anthropic, recently valued at $380 billion in a private funding round, is not publicly traded, making VCX one of the few ways for retail investors to gain indirect access. The fund's limited liquidity, with most shares locked until September, amplified buying pressure. Similar funds without significant Anthropic or OpenAI stakes performed poorly, highlighting that the frenzy is specifically tied to AI-related FOMO. However, the premium is considered temporary, as it may vanish once Anthropic and other held companies like SpaceX go public, expected in 2026-2027. The phenomenon reflects broader investor anxiety about missing out on transformative AI companies that are reshaping industries while remaining private longer.

marsbit03/25 08:05

Those Who Can't Buy Anthropic Are Driving Its Shadow Stock to 16 Times Its Value

marsbit03/25 08:05

The Playground of Whales: Why Retail Investors Are Fleeing DeFi

The article "Whales' Playground: Why Retail Investors Are Fleeing DeFi" argues that the era of decentralized finance as a tool for financial democratization has ended. Despite lower transaction costs on Layer 2 solutions and Ethereum mainnet, retail participation is declining due to several key issues: 1. **Low Gas Trap**: Cheap gas fees have turned DeFi into a high-effort, low-reward environment where users perform repetitive tasks for minimal airdrop rewards, resembling "digital labor." 2. **Unpredictable Rules**: Project teams frequently change rules retroactively (e.g., altering token distribution criteria or locking periods), undermining the "Code is Law" principle and leaving users vulnerable to arbitrary decisions. 3. **Lockup Traps**: High APY incentives often require long-term staking (1-4 years), but users risk illiquidity, token devaluation, and exploitation by whales who exit early. 4. **Risk-Reward Mismatch**: Low returns (5-10%) come with high risks: smart contract exploits, phishing, stablecoin depegging, and rug pulls. Retail investors bear disproportionate risk compared to potential gains. The author concludes that DeFi has become a playground for whales and predatory projects, advising retail investors to exit meaningless interactions, avoid lockups, and preserve capital by investing in core assets like Bitcoin instead.

比推01/27 04:33

The Playground of Whales: Why Retail Investors Are Fleeing DeFi

比推01/27 04:33

Crypto.com US$250,000 Airdrop Event, Win SOL in Airdrop Arena

Crypto.com has launched a US$250,000 SOL airdrop campaign through Airdrop Arena, running from 1 to 31 January 2026. Users can earn points by allocating CRO, with the first 10,000 participants receiving a 120% points boost. An additional daily boost is available for those who purchase at least 1,500 CRO before allocation. Participation is via the Crypto.com app with no trading required. Allocated CRO is locked for 6 months but can be left staked for future events. SOL rewards are distributed within 7 days post-campaign, either directly or via Loot Locker. The campaign emphasizes passive rewards and long-term engagement, leveraging Solana's market appeal.

bitcoinist01/12 13:56

Crypto.com US$250,000 Airdrop Event, Win SOL in Airdrop Arena

bitcoinist01/12 13:56

Infinex Token Sale New Rules: Two Options - $0.0099 Locked for One Year or $0.03 Unlocked Immediately

Infinex, a DeFi platform founded by Synthetix's Kain Warwick, has revised its token sale terms for its INX token. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) has been reduced from $300 million to $99.99 million following community feedback, though the one-year lockup period remains unchanged. The sale, scheduled for January 3-6, 2026, will offer 5% of the total token supply. Participants are given two pricing options: purchase tokens at $0.0099 each with a mandatory one-year lock, or opt for immediate unlocking at TGE (end of January 2026) at a higher valuation of $300 million FDV, equating to $0.03 per token. The latter option features a linear valuation decrease over the year, settling at the $99.99 million FDV. The changes have sparked significant community backlash, particularly from Patron NFT holders. They argue the new immediate unlock option at a lower FDV devalues their earlier investments, which were made under the expectation that early liquidity required a much higher valuation threshold. The Patron NFT floor price fell nearly 10% following the announcement. Despite the FDV reduction, the core complaint about the lengthy one-year lockup persists, with many in the community viewing it as a major disadvantage in the current market.

Odaily星球日报12/26 02:34

Infinex Token Sale New Rules: Two Options - $0.0099 Locked for One Year or $0.03 Unlocked Immediately

Odaily星球日报12/26 02:34

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