Institutional Analysis on Gold Price: Persistent Support at $4000, Has Gold Hit Bottom?
Despite a sharp 11.7% drop in June and repeated tests near $4000/oz, State Street Investment Management maintains its $5000/oz gold price target for early 2027. The report acknowledges near-term headwinds: Western ETF outflows reached $18.7bn over four months, higher U.S. interest rate expectations increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, and cash in money market funds offers competition. Consequently, the probability of a consolidation scenario ($4000-$4750) has been raised to 25%.
The core bullish structure remains intact, primarily driven by sustained central bank buying. Global central banks are expected to purchase 680-820 tonnes in 2026, providing a stable demand floor for diversification away from the U.S. dollar and Treasury debt. Gold's share of global reserves has now surpassed that of U.S. Treasuries.
Asian and Chinese physical demand offers additional support, with strong imports and local premiums. However, for a sustained rally towards $5000, a halt in Western ETF outflows is seen as crucial. The base case (70% probability) still projects a move to $4750-$5500 within 6-9 months, but the path is likely to be volatile, with high rates initially capping upside momentum.
marsbitHace 17 hora(s)
