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Bitcoin spot demand weakens as new capital hesitates despite ETF inflows

Bitcoin remains unable to decisively break above the $65k-$67k local supply zone despite a recent positive turnaround in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows since mid-July. Analyst data shows a significant drop-off in 30-day Bitcoin spot demand, deteriorating from -80k BTC to -170k BTC. While short-covering in derivatives and reduced sell pressure from short-term holders have provided stability, key indicators suggest this is stabilization, not a bullish reversal. The Bitcoin New Investors metric, while increased, remains near yearly lows at 8.1, indicating insufficient new capital strength. Furthermore, the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH SOPR) remains below 1.0, meaning these holders are on average realizing losses, a sign bearish sentiment persists. The overall conclusion is that the market lacks the momentum from new capital and positive short-term holder sentiment required for a sustained bullish trend reversal.

ambcryptoAyer 19:02

Bitcoin spot demand weakens as new capital hesitates despite ETF inflows

ambcryptoAyer 19:02

Ethereum price prediction – Can ETH reclaim $2K as ETF inflows return?

Ethereum (ETH) is consolidating around $1,865, showing a recovery from June lows with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows in July. A key factor is the return of institutional demand, with U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs posting a second consecutive week of net inflows ($105.44M for the week ending July 17), bringing total assets near $10 billion. BlackRock's fund (ETHA) led the inflows. Technically, while the weekly RSI remains around 40, the daily RSI near 58 indicates strengthening buying momentum. The immediate resistance is at $1,900. A break above could open a path toward the key $2,000 level, with $1,800 now acting as important support. The return of ETF inflows and improving technicals suggest the recovery is gaining traction, though a sustained push above $1,900 is needed to challenge $2,000.

ambcryptoAyer 15:05

Ethereum price prediction – Can ETH reclaim $2K as ETF inflows return?

ambcryptoAyer 15:05

Bitcoin ETF inflows are back, but THIS signal says don’t celebrate yet!

Bitcoin ETF inflows have turned positive this month with over $200 million after two months of significant outflows, coinciding with BTC's price rebound. However, key signals suggest it's too early to celebrate a full return of institutional bullishness. The Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, indicating weak spot buying demand from U.S. investors. Furthermore, capital is rotating into Ethereum, as evidenced by three consecutive weeks of gains in the ETH/BTC ratio and stronger relative inflows into ETH ETFs. While Bitcoin's ETF flows have improved, the broader institutional picture lacks confirmation, with the recovery appearing more as a short-term rotation rather than a structural shift in demand.

ambcryptoAyer 11:02

Bitcoin ETF inflows are back, but THIS signal says don’t celebrate yet!

ambcryptoAyer 11:02

Bitcoin ETFs end 8-week outflow streak with $197M inflows – Details

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $197 million for the week of July 6-10, ending an eight-week outflow streak. BlackRock's IBIT led with $209.4 million in inflows on July 6 alone, while Grayscale's GBTC saw the largest outflows. The week was volatile, with daily flows shifting between net inflows and outflows. Bitcoin's price fluctuated between approximately $63,650 and $64,400 before settling near $62,750. Spot Ethereum ETFs mirrored the trend, posting net inflows of $84.42 million and also ending an eight-week outflow period. Other altcoin ETFs, including Solana and Hyperliquid, recorded inflows, while XRP ETFs saw net outflows.

ambcrypto07/13 09:02

Bitcoin ETFs end 8-week outflow streak with $197M inflows – Details

ambcrypto07/13 09:02

Bitcoin ETFs add $222M, but BlackRock sees outflows – Why it matters

On July 2nd, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $222 million, ending a 10-day outflow streak that totaled $2.709 billion. Fidelity's FBTC led with $166 million in inflows, while BlackRock's typically dominant IBIT recorded $40.4 million in outflows. Despite the fresh inflows, Bitcoin's price, which had fallen below $60k during the outflow period, only rebounded to around $62,713, failing to reclaim the $65k level. Ethereum ETFs followed a similar pattern, with nine days of outflows before turning positive on July 1st and 2nd. In contrast, other altcoin ETFs like those for Solana and XRP saw significant net inflows during the same period. Overall, total assets under management for U.S. crypto ETFs have declined to levels last seen in November 2024.

ambcrypto07/05 05:02

Bitcoin ETFs add $222M, but BlackRock sees outflows – Why it matters

ambcrypto07/05 05:02

Ethereum traders, watch THIS closely after $26M whale shift because…

Ethereum has been trading narrowly around $1,600 after dropping to $1,510. Currently at $1,622, its muted price action has led to mixed investor sentiment. A notable whale, Satofashi, moved 16,842 ETH (worth $26.87 million) to an exchange. This whale had accumulated 91,945 ETH at an average price of $1,749 during a period when ETH traded around $2,100. While the transfer could indicate repositioning rather than a full sale, it coincided with a broader trend of positive exchange netflows, meaning more ETH is entering exchanges. Despite this potential selling pressure, ETH's price showed resilience. Technical indicators like the MACD formed a bullish crossover, and the BvB indicator turned positive, suggesting bearish momentum is easing. This points to a potential recovery toward $1,777. However, the situation remains at a crossroads. Sustained exchange inflows from large holders could renew selling pressure, risking a retest of the $1,500 support level.

ambcrypto07/03 03:02

Ethereum traders, watch THIS closely after $26M whale shift because…

ambcrypto07/03 03:02

Rented Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Inflows Is Real Money?

"Rented Conviction: How Much of Bitcoin ETF Flows Is Real Money" The weekly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are often interpreted as a gauge of institutional belief. However, a significant portion of this activity is driven by a hidden arbitrage trade, not directional conviction. The core mechanism is a cash-and-carry arbitrage: traders buy spot Bitcoin (often via ETFs) while simultaneously shorting CME futures to lock in the price difference, or "basis." This delta-neutral trade is essentially an interest rate play. In weekly data, about half the fluctuation in ETF flows can be explained by new short positions added by leveraged funds (hedge funds), with a correlation of 0.70. Bitcoin's price movement in a given week shows no statistical power in predicting these flows. While this arbitrage trade drives weekly *volatility*, it is not the main component of the cumulative *stock*. Of the total ~$55 billion in net ETF inflows, the current net arbitrage position is only about $1 billion. The remainder is steady, directional buying averaging ~$400 million per week, which constitutes the vast majority of the accumulated "mountain" over two years. Thus, ETF flow data overstates the *volatility* of conviction, not its *level*. This arbitrage trade has been unwinding for nearly two years. Leveraged fund short positions peaked at ~$14 billion in late 2024 and have since declined to ~$4.5 billion. When the basis compresses to unprofitable levels, ETF inflows and short positions retreat together. Recent outflows should not be mistaken for a loss of faith but rather the routine unwinding of this rate trade. For Ethereum ETFs, the pattern is weaker. Accounting for staking yield makes the basis often negative, so neither strong conviction buying nor robust arbitrage supports its flows. To interpret ETF flows correctly, monitor the CME basis versus T-bill rates and leveraged fund net shorts. They reveal how much of the next "demand" headline is real. The real, patient buy-and-hold demand is what constitutes the enduring bulk of ETF assets.

marsbit06/23 03:03

Rented Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Inflows Is Real Money?

marsbit06/23 03:03

Bitcoin ETF Sees First Inflow in Three Weeks After Record $4.4 Billion Outflow Streak

US Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a record-breaking outflow streak, with a net withdrawal of $4.4 billion over 13 consecutive trading days from May 15 to June 3, more than doubling the previous record set in February 2025. This sell-off, led predominantly by BlackRock's IBIT, coincided with a Bitcoin price drop from above $80,000 to around $63,000, reducing total ETF assets under management from $104.3 billion to $82.8 billion. A potential turning point emerged on June 12, when the funds collectively recorded zero net outflows and a net inflow of $85.84 million. Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered cited this as one of three signals indicating Bitcoin may have reached a cycle bottom. While the single day's inflow is small relative to the preceding outflows, it marks a crucial shift in momentum. Analysts view the halt in sustained selling pressure as a key indicator, suggesting the recent downturn was a significant correction rather than a structural collapse for the ETF market.

marsbit06/15 05:28

Bitcoin ETF Sees First Inflow in Three Weeks After Record $4.4 Billion Outflow Streak

marsbit06/15 05:28

Ethereum ETFs Attract $82M In Inflows While Bitcoin Funds Bleed

Ethereum spot ETFs attracted significant net inflows of $82 million on Monday, marking a positive reversal after a prolonged period of capital outflows since early May. In contrast, Bitcoin spot ETFs continued to experience net outflows, with $91 million leaving on the same day. This divergence suggests shifting investor preference towards Ethereum within the regulated ETF space. While Ethereum's price has recovered slightly to around $1,670 from recent lows below $1,600, Bitcoin funds have struggled to attract consistent inflows. The data highlights a notable trend where ETF investors are currently showing more interest in Ethereum compared to Bitcoin.

bitcoinist06/10 03:32

Ethereum ETFs Attract $82M In Inflows While Bitcoin Funds Bleed

bitcoinist06/10 03:32

The Next Bitcoin ETF Boom May Be Coming From Japan – Here’s Why

Despite recent outflows from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs, market attention is shifting to Japan as the potential next major market for such funds. This follows regulatory reforms in Japan that are moving cryptocurrency oversight to a financial instruments framework, potentially enabling Bitcoin ETF approval. Analysis suggests a Japanese spot Bitcoin ETF could attract significant inflows, ranging from ¥900 billion ($5.61 billion) in a conservative scenario to ¥3.1 trillion ($19.34 billion) in a bullish one. A base-case estimate of ¥1.4 trillion ($8.73 billion) would equate to demand for roughly 140,000 BTC. Beyond price impact, a Japanese ETF is seen as boosting Bitcoin's legitimacy and accessibility for investors and institutions. Bitcoin's price was around $61,038 at the time of writing, down 2.81% over 24 hours.

bitcoinist06/07 12:24

The Next Bitcoin ETF Boom May Be Coming From Japan – Here’s Why

bitcoinist06/07 12:24

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