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The Evolution of Listing Cycles: Yesterday's Wind Won't Fly Today's Kite

The article "The Evolution of Listing Cycle: Yesterday's Wind Can't Fly Today's Kite" uses a dental braces metaphor to describe the structural evolution of cryptocurrency exchange listing processes from 2017 to 2025. It outlines four distinct phases: 1. **Community-Priced Era (2017-2018)**: A chaotic "milk teeth" period where listings were driven by community votes and loud narratives, with exchanges acting as passive platforms seeking user growth. 2. **Exchange-Priced Era (2019-2022)**: The "teeth-growing" phase where exchanges (e.g., via IEOs/Launchpads) became gatekeepers, providing due diligence and using new listings to empower their own ecosystem tokens. 3. **VC-Priced Collapse (2023-2024)**: A "malocclusion" period where high FDV, low float VC deals dominated, causing token prices to peak at launch. Excountered, exchanges intervened with measures like HODLer airdrops to redistribute value to retail users and counter VC dominance. 4. **Market/Derivatives-Priced Era (2025)**: The "orthodontic" phase marked by industrialization. Price discovery shifts to derivatives, with pre-market perpetual合约 trading allowing price formation before spot listing. Mechanisms like Binance Alpha act as a sandbox, requiring projects to prove market resilience. Concurrently, the "listing fee" model evolved: from direct payments to exchanges, to sharing tokens with the exchange's ecosystem, and finally to a current model where projects must allocate a significant portion of their token supply (3-7%) for user airdrops and marketing, effectively making listing a major customer acquisition cost. The core thesis is a transfer of pricing power: from community -> exchange -> VC -> finally to the market itself via sophisticated derivatives. The article concludes that the era of easy gains from simple listings is over, demanding greater professionalism from both projects and traders.

marsbit02/17 02:59

The Evolution of Listing Cycles: Yesterday's Wind Won't Fly Today's Kite

marsbit02/17 02:59

Over 80% of New Tokens Peak at TGE: The Root Cause and Cure for Web3's False Prosperity

Nearly 85% of tokens launched in 2025 have seen their fully diluted valuation (FDV) fall below their initial TGE valuation, with a median decline of 71%. Only 15% of new tokens outperformed their TGE price. This trend reveals systemic issues in the Web3 space, where high fundraising, large communities, and major exchange listings—often considered markers of quality—show no statistical correlation with token performance. Key findings include: - Projects raising $1 million performed similarly to those raising $10 million. Excessive funding often leads to faster token failure due to investor unlocks and market pressure. - Community size (e.g., 50k vs. 500k followers) has no predictive value for token success. Most "communities" are speculative and disappear when prices drop. - Token pricing is critical: tokens priced between $0.01–$0.05 at launch showed the best survival rates, while those outside this range often failed. - AI tokens outperformed others in both peak and sustainability, while Gaming and DeFi sectors struggled severely. - IDO/IEO platforms provided no reliable protection; most launches resulted in significant losses. The root causes include flawed tokenomics, over-reliance on speculative metrics, poor timing, and a market that prioritizes narrative over substance. The article urges builders in 2026 to focus on sustainable fundraising, realistic token pricing, product-market fit, and genuine metrics like user retention and revenue—rather than vanity indicators. The old playbook is broken; adaptation and integration are essential for survival.

marsbit12/23 03:07

Over 80% of New Tokens Peak at TGE: The Root Cause and Cure for Web3's False Prosperity

marsbit12/23 03:07

Japan Launches Historic Crypto Regulatory Overhaul: Crypto Assets to Be Formally Included in Securities Law, Fully Departing from the 'Payment Tool Era'

Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) is advancing a historic regulatory reform to shift cryptocurrency regulation from the Payment Services Act (PSA) to the stricter Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA). This reclassification officially recognizes crypto assets as investment products, similar to stocks and bonds, and subjects them to securities-level investor protection and disclosure standards. The reform, based on a finalized report from an expert panel, aims to enhance investor safeguards, combat fraud, and align with international frameworks like the EU's MiCA. Key measures include stricter disclosure requirements for Initial Exchange Offerings (IEOs), stronger enforcement against unregistered platforms—including overseas and decentralized exchanges—and a ban on insider trading and market manipulation. Additionally, Japan is considering reducing the crypto tax rate from up to 55% (miscellaneous income) to 20% (capital gains), matching stock taxation, to encourage institutional and retail investment. The changes are expected to be enacted by 2026.

marsbit12/10 15:49

Japan Launches Historic Crypto Regulatory Overhaul: Crypto Assets to Be Formally Included in Securities Law, Fully Departing from the 'Payment Tool Era'

marsbit12/10 15:49

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