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How Long Will the Memory Boom Last?

"The semiconductor storage market is currently experiencing an unprecedented, explosive boom, primarily driven by DRAM and NAND flash. This growth, characterized by a near-vertical surge since 2024, is not due to a massive increase in shipment volume but rather an abnormal spike in prices—approximately a tenfold increase from 2025 to 2026 for both DRAM and NAND. This price surge stems from a severe supply-demand imbalance caused by massive capital investments from hyperscale data center operators (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) building AI data centers, which act like a "black hole" consuming high-performance memory, particularly HBM. This redirects production capacity away from consumer electronics (PCs, smartphones), creating critical shortages and driving up prices further. The AI-driven boom has rendered previous market forecasts obsolete, with the global semiconductor market now projected to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2026, largely propelled by memory and logic (including GPUs). However, historical analysis of the memory market reveals a consistent pattern: periods of positive annual growth have never lasted more than five consecutive years, inevitably followed by a downturn due to the "silicon cycle" of overinvestment and subsequent oversupply. Given that the current upswing began around 2023, history suggests a peak is likely by 2027-2028. Furthermore, the higher the peak, the deeper the subsequent trough. The current 285% annual growth rate is a historical anomaly, implying the coming recession could be exceptionally severe. While memory manufacturers' stock prices and profits are currently soaring, the author urges the industry to prepare practically for the inevitable downturn while the boom continues."

链捕手Hace 59 min(s)

How Long Will the Memory Boom Last?

链捕手Hace 59 min(s)

South Korean Broker's 'Below-Expectations' Forecast Triggers 12% Plunge in SK Hynix, Putting Pressure on Entire Storage Sector

South Korean brokerage KIS released a forecast for SK Hynix's Q2 2026 earnings, predicting operating profit of 60.4 trillion won, up 556% year-over-year. However, this figure was about 8% below the market consensus of 65 trillion won. The shortfall was attributed to SK Hynix's high proportion of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) revenue. HBM is typically sold under long-term agreements (LTAs) with fixed prices, which limited the company's average selling price (ASP) growth compared to the soaring spot market prices for standard DRAM and NAND. KIS emphasized this was a methodological adjustment to include LTA pricing, not a fundamental deterioration, and maintained its buy rating and 3.8 million won target price. Nevertheless, the report triggered a sharp market sell-off. SK Hynix's stock plunged over 12%, falling below 2 million won and extending its pullback from recent highs. The sell-off spread to related assets: leveraged ETFs tracking SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics fell sharply in Hong Kong, and A-share memory stocks also declined. Analysts note the incident highlights market sensitivity to earnings misses versus high expectations. However, KIS argues the long-term investment thesis remains intact, with the industry shift toward LTAs potentially leading to more stable, sustained profitability rather than volatile quarter-to-quarter ASP gains.

链捕手Ayer 06:32

South Korean Broker's 'Below-Expectations' Forecast Triggers 12% Plunge in SK Hynix, Putting Pressure on Entire Storage Sector

链捕手Ayer 06:32

SK Hynix, Fleeing South Korea

SK Hynix, South Korea's leading memory chipmaker and the global leader in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) crucial for AI, recently listed on the Nasdaq in a record $26.5 billion IPO for a foreign firm. Despite posting a remarkable 77% net profit margin last quarter and generating roughly $30 billion in cash, the company sought a U.S. listing not for urgent funding but primarily for valuation reassessment. In South Korea, it traded at a significant "Korea Discount," with a price-to-earnings ratio around 8x, far below the 23x+ of its U.S. rival Micron. The move aims to attract deeper-pocketed, long-term global institutional investors, granting Hynix access to cheaper capital crucial for the escalating R&D and fab costs of next-gen AI chips like HBM4, which require advanced foundry partnerships. This strategic migration underscores how in the AI era, capital market positioning and valuation efficiency have become as critical as technological prowess, forcing top-tier global assets toward the world's most liquid funding pools.

marsbit07/11 04:05

SK Hynix, Fleeing South Korea

marsbit07/11 04:05

$8 Trillion: The Second-Largest IPO in History Has Arrived

SK Hynix Makes History with World's Second-Largest IPO. The global memory chip leader SK Hynix debuted on Nasdaq, raising $26.5 billion and achieving a market cap exceeding $1.2 trillion. This marks the largest U.S. IPO by a foreign company and the second-biggest globally. The company's journey is a remarkable turnaround. Founded in 1983, its predecessor, Hyundai Electronics, faced near-bankruptcy during industry downturns before being acquired by SK Group in 2011. A pivotal early bet on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) technology, initially with AMD in 2013, ultimately paid off with the AI boom. SK Hynix now supplies HBM3 to NVIDIA and commands 58% of the global HBM market. Driven by soaring AI demand, SK Hynix reported staggering Q1 2026 profits with a 72% operating margin. Its surging stock made it South Korea's second trillion-dollar company. Profits are shared widely with employees through a new bonus system tied to 10% of annual operating profit. The article highlights an ongoing "super memory cycle" fueled by AI, with market forecasts predicting massive growth. This presents a historic opportunity for Chinese memory chip makers. ChangXin Memory Technology (CXMT) is set for a domestic IPO, potentially reaching a ~$420 billion valuation as China's top DRAM producer. Yangtze Memory is also preparing to go public. While these "domestic storage leaders" are gaining ground, the article notes they still face technology and margin gaps compared to established giants like Samsung and SK Hynix.

marsbit07/11 04:05

$8 Trillion: The Second-Largest IPO in History Has Arrived

marsbit07/11 04:05

Sevenfold Oversubscription, Can SK Hynix Save the Semiconductor Industry This Time?

SK Hynix's planned US ADR listing is drawing intense interest, with its offering reportedly oversubscribed by over seven times, potentially making it the largest foreign listing in US history. The fundraising of approximately $24.5 billion is intended for expanding its Korean production capacity, including advanced packaging and EUV equipment. This massive demand from long-term funds and prominent institutions like Baillie Gifford and Situational Awareness Partners (led by noted investor Leopold Aschenbrenner) presents a stark contrast to the recent downturn in the broader semiconductor sector. The sector has faced a significant correction, with SK Hynix's own stock falling nearly 30% from its June high. This sell-off was triggered by concerns that major tech giants might slow their AI infrastructure spending, following signals like Meta's reported plan to sell surplus computing capacity. The strong ADR appetite suggests long-term investors still believe in the AI investment cycle's fundamentals, viewing the recent decline more as a valuation reset than a demand collapse. Some market speculation even suggests the pre-IPO price drop could be strategic, setting the stage for a stronger post-listing performance. While SK Hynix's successful listing may act as a short-term positive catalyst for market sentiment, the article argues the true signal for a sustained semiconductor recovery will come from upcoming earnings reports of tech giants like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon. Their future capital expenditure plans will be crucial in determining whether the AI-driven growth cycle can continue.

Odaily星球日报07/09 03:16

Sevenfold Oversubscription, Can SK Hynix Save the Semiconductor Industry This Time?

Odaily星球日报07/09 03:16

On the Eve of Its U.S. Journey, SK Hynix Plummets Sharply

Just before its highly anticipated U.S. listing, SK Hynix saw its share price plummet dramatically, losing over 14% in a single day. The sell-off was triggered by market fears of a potential slowdown in AI capital expenditure. This followed a news report suggesting Meta might sell "excess AI compute," which was later amended to remove the word "excess." The initial phrasing sparked a chain reaction in investor sentiment, linking it to a potential peak in AI demand. Despite the sharp downturn, the article argues this is likely an overreaction driven by market sentiment and structural de-leveraging, rather than a fundamental reversal of the AI trend. The author points out that even if Meta proceeds, it could be an optimization of existing assets, not a systemic demand contraction. SK Hynix is in the final stages of its U.S. IPO via an ADR listing on Nasdaq, aiming to raise approximately $29.4 billion—one of the largest such offerings ever. The funds are earmarked for expanding domestic Korean production capacity for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and advanced packaging. A key motivation for the U.S. listing is to achieve a valuation re-rating, escaping the so-called "Korea discount" and tapping into the higher valuation multiples typically given to AI-related semiconductor stocks in the U.S. market. In conclusion, the article views the current price drop as a potential buying opportunity, suggesting the long-term industry fundamentals for SK Hynix—particularly its leading position in the crucial HBM market—remain strong. The significant capital raised from the IPO is also seen as a factor that could provide underlying support for the stock post-listing.

Odaily星球日报07/02 09:48

On the Eve of Its U.S. Journey, SK Hynix Plummets Sharply

Odaily星球日报07/02 09:48

South Korea Reaps Riches, America Turns Hostile

The US has filed a collective antitrust lawsuit in California against Samsung, SK Hynix, and US-based Micron, alleging they colluded to create a "RAMpocalypse" by slashing traditional DRAM production and raising prices 700% over four years amid the AI boom. This lawsuit targets the heart of the AI supply chain: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), critical for Nvidia's GPUs. Currently, SK Hynix (57%), Samsung (22%), and Micron (21%) dominate global HBM production. The case highlights a deeper US concern: in the AI era, South Korea, through its HBM dominance, is capturing an estimated 35% of global AI profits, second only to the US (49%). SK Hynix's operating profit margin recently hit a record 72%. In response to the lawsuit, South Korea announced a massive $800 trillion won investment to build four new chip plants, doubling down on its strategic position. Analysts see the lawsuit not merely as a consumer price issue but as strategic pressure. It aims to support Micron's US manufacturing expansion (subsidized by the CHIPS Act) and secure America's share of AI profits by bringing more HBM production onshore. However, South Korea's rapid execution and massive cash flow from current HBM sales give it a significant speed advantage over US build-out timelines. The conflict underscores a fundamental shift: AI infrastructure like GPUs and HBM is becoming a new form of strategic national resource, akin to oil. While Nvidia and Korean memory giants are interdependent, the struggle over profit distribution and industrial sovereignty in this new landscape is just beginning. This lawsuit may be the first major skirmish in the AI resource wars.

marsbit06/30 04:26

South Korea Reaps Riches, America Turns Hostile

marsbit06/30 04:26

This Afternoon, South Korea Will Bet the Nation's Destiny for the Next Decade

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's office announced on Sunday that Samsung and SK Group will unveil major investment plans on Monday. South Korean media reports indicate the plan involves a massive 200 trillion won (approx. $1.3 trillion USD) investment over the next decade, primarily focused on expanding domestic semiconductor manufacturing. This includes Samsung and SK Hynix building multiple new semiconductor fabrication plants and facilities across several regions in South Korea. This investment represents a strategic, government-backed move to solidify South Korea's position in the global AI infrastructure race. It reflects a belief that AI-driven demand for high-performance memory, especially High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), is not a short-term boom but a sustained, decade-long industry wave. Historically a highly cyclical sector, the memory industry's dynamics are being tested by the unprecedented demand from AI development. This investment is a bet that AI can fundamentally extend the cycle's duration or alter its nature. While the scale of the investment is staggering—nearly 70% of South Korea's annual GDP—the core question remains: whether AI can truly eliminate the memory industry's inherent cyclicality. Only time will tell if this monumental wager on AI's future will secure South Korea's long-term dominance.

Odaily星球日报06/29 03:19

This Afternoon, South Korea Will Bet the Nation's Destiny for the Next Decade

Odaily星球日报06/29 03:19

Apple and the Power Rebalancing with 'The Microns': Dissecting the Profit Ledger Behind the iPhone

The article analyzes the shifting profit dynamics and power balance between Apple and memory suppliers like Micron within the iPhone supply chain. It highlights a social media post criticizing Apple for raising iPhone prices while blaming memory chip cost increases, despite historically paying suppliers like Micron very little. An estimated iPhone 18 cost breakdown is referenced. Historically, memory was a minor cost component. In 2017's iPhone X, memory accounted for only about 1.6-2.3% of the price, with Apple capturing nearly 50% net profit. Over time, memory's share of the Bill-of-Materials (BOM) cost has grown significantly, reaching an estimated 12-15% for the iPhone 17 series. The core driver of this change is soaring demand for memory from the AI industry, particularly for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and AI servers, which is diverting production capacity and squeezing supply for consumer electronics. Memory manufacturers, after enduring periods of low profits, now hold greater pricing power. This is reflected in their recent strong financials, like Micron's 84.6% gross margin. Apple CEO Tim Cook initially described the memory price pressure as unprecedented in his 40-year career, later calling it a "once-in-a-century flood," before Apple announced price hikes across several product lines, causing a significant stock drop. Elon Musk echoed Cook's sentiment about the dramatic cost surge. The article concludes that the era of memory suppliers being at the mercy of Apple's pricing power has temporarily reversed, thanks to AI-driven demand. It notes Apple is reportedly seeking to diversify its supply chain, including exploring chips from China's CXMT.

Odaily星球日报06/28 06:03

Apple and the Power Rebalancing with 'The Microns': Dissecting the Profit Ledger Behind the iPhone

Odaily星球日报06/28 06:03

From the White-Haired Stock God to the Billion-Dollar Fund Titan: The Smart People Shorting NVIDIA Are Getting Rich Using the Same Framework

From "white-haired stock god" to billionaire fund manager, those profiting from shorting NVIDIA share a common framework. The article analyzes the critical bottlenecks in the AI hardware supply chain, which have become key investment focal points. The core argument is that the real constraint on the AI boom isn't software or algorithms, but fundamental physical infrastructure. The piece dissects nine major bottlenecks, organized around the lifecycle of an AI accelerator circuit board. *Before the Board*: The pre-manufacturing stage faces constraints in EDA tools, new materials (like GaN, SiC, InP) replacing silicon, and the critical, non-renewable supply of helium for semiconductor fabrication. *On the Board*: The primary bottlenecks are High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), essential for unleashing GPU power, and advanced packaging (e.g., CoWoS), required to integrate components. Both are in severe shortage. *Between Boards*: Chip-to-chip communication is hitting limits with copper, pushing photonics and optical interconnects (CPO) as the next-gen solution, with NVIDIA heavily investing in this area. *Around the Board*: Power delivery requires new materials (GaN/SiC) for efficient voltage conversion from 48V to sub-1V. High-density AI racks (120kW+) are forcing a shift from air to liquid cooling as the standard. *Beyond the Board*: The ultimate bottleneck is electricity. AI data centers consume power equivalent to mid-sized cities, and grid expansion lags far behind demand, causing project delays and a scramble for power contracts. Prominent investors like Leopold and "white-haired stock god" are heavily betting on these infrastructure bottlenecks. Leopold's fund, for instance, holds no NVIDIA stock but uses massive put options to short the semiconductor sector while going long on power and physical infrastructure. His thesis is that while chip competition may eventually erode margins, the scarcity of foundational elements like electricity is more persistent. The framework's validity is tied to the supply-demand gap. Major new capacity in HBM and photonics is scheduled for 2027-2028, but demand continues to outpace it. Experts like Intel's CEO suggest no relief before 2028. However, the article warns of a potential reversal around 2028-2029 if AI capex slows and new capacity floods the market, turning scarcity into oversupply. Until then, the imbalance persists.

链捕手06/26 01:29

From the White-Haired Stock God to the Billion-Dollar Fund Titan: The Smart People Shorting NVIDIA Are Getting Rich Using the Same Framework

链捕手06/26 01:29

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