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How Pessimistic Is Wall Street? Goldman Sachs Directly Compares 'Software' to 'Newspapers'

Wall Street's pessimism towards the software sector has reached an extreme, with Goldman Sachs drawing a stark comparison to the newspaper industry's decline in the early 2000s and the regulatory challenges faced by tobacco in the late 1990s. The firm argues that the recent sharp sell-off in software stocks—down 29% from September 2025 highs—reflects a fundamental reassessment of the sector's long-term growth and profitability, not just short-term earnings volatility. Key catalysts include new AI developments from Anthropic and Google, which are now seen as direct threats to software firms' pricing power and business models, rather than mere productivity tools. Despite software valuations falling to multi-year lows (forward P/E of ~20x), Goldman emphasizes that the core issue is not valuation but crumbling growth assumptions. Current multiples imply mid-term revenue growth expectations have collapsed from 15-20% to just 5-10%. The report warns that, as with newspapers and tobacco, valuations alone won't form a bottom; earnings expectations must stabilize first. Investors are already shifting capital toward "real economy" sectors like industrials and energy, while reducing exposure to AI-vulnerable software. Goldman notes some defensive opportunities in vertical software and data-rich companies but stresses that the narrative has shifted from "AI as a growth catalyst" to "AI as an existential threat." The key question is no longer whether software stocks can rebound, but which companies can prove they won't become the next newspapers.

marsbit02/06 05:47