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Tonight's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Exam: 'Good News' Is Also 'Bad News'

Tonight's U.S. non-farm payroll report is awaited with a market logic inversion: strong job gains could be "bad news" by pushing bond yields higher and pressuring stocks, as they might prompt a more hawkish Federal Reserve focused on persistent inflation. Conversely, weak data, while easing rate hike fears, could spark stagflation concerns. Consensus expects a rebound to 55,000 jobs added in August from July's -23,000, with unemployment stable at 4.1%. Leading indicators are mixed: ADP payrolls slowed sharply, but other signals like JOLTS and PMI data show resilience. A key downside risk is the expiration of Temporary Protected Status for some immigrants, potentially lowering the count. Market impact depends heavily on the data range. Morgan Stanley notes that with only one CPI report left before the September 16 FOMC meeting, inflation data holds greater weight for policy. A "Goldilocks" reading of 30,000 to 70,000 new jobs would likely be neutral. Numbers above 100,000 could pressure stocks and lift yields, while a second consecutive negative print could effectively eliminate any near-term rate hike expectations, according to analysts.

marsbitAyer 08:01

Tonight's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Exam: 'Good News' Is Also 'Bad News'

marsbitAyer 08:01

Early Bull Market or Late Bear Market: Experts' Opinions from Wu Blockchain

The Bitcoin market has recently rebounded by 40% from its local low, surpassing $81,000. In a Wu Blockchain podcast, two experts debated whether this signals an early bull market or a late bear market phase. Didier argues the market is in the early stages of a bull cycle. He cites Bitcoin's recovery above its 200-day moving average and widespread market under-positioning—with low Bitcoin allocations and significant short positions—as classic early-cycle signs. He believes the bull market structure is already forming. Griffin Ardern is more cautious, viewing the market as in a mid-to-late bear cycle. He emphasizes U.S. dollar liquidity as the key variable, dependent on whether the Federal Reserve engages in policies resembling "Operation Twist" to support the bond market, which would weaken the dollar and boost risk assets like Bitcoin. He attributes the recent surge partly to a short squeeze in a low-activity market. The discussion also covers U.S. fiscal policy, with Griffin noting concerns over the growing share of short-term U.S. debt fueling volatility and a "dollar debasement" trade benefiting Bitcoin and gold. Didier explains potential "private QE" maneuvers and analyzes MicroStrategy's (MSTR) complex capital structure, including its STRC perpetual preferred shares, which act as a funding tool less risky than debt. Regarding sector competition, Didier believes the crowded AI trade might see some capital rotate into under-positioned crypto, while Griffin notes AI has drawn talent away, though blockchain's long-term value as financial infrastructure remains intact. The analysis concludes that while technical factors like short squeezes are driving recent moves, the broader trend hinges on macroeconomic policy decisions concerning U.S. debt and dollar liquidity.

cryptonews.ruHace 2 días 22:36

Early Bull Market or Late Bear Market: Experts' Opinions from Wu Blockchain

cryptonews.ruHace 2 días 22:36

Cryptocurrency Market Sees Drop Amid Escalation in Middle East Situation

Cryptocurrency markets experienced a downturn amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East. On August 30, 2026, the US and Iran resumed military strikes, with exchanges continuing into early September, impacting high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The renewed conflict caused a sharp spike in oil prices and a drop in the S&P 500 index. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to a multi-year high, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September. This monetary policy outlook, coupled with stock market volatility, directly pressured the crypto sector. Analysts noted the market correction, with total capitalization dropping approximately $85 billion. Some traders, however, believe a local bottom for Bitcoin has formed, expecting a potential recovery if key support levels hold.

cryptonews.ru09/02 09:59

Cryptocurrency Market Sees Drop Amid Escalation in Middle East Situation

cryptonews.ru09/02 09:59

Bitcoin Price Forecast for September 2026: Can BTC Surpass $82,206 to Target $97,278 in September?

Bitcoin Price Forecast for September 2026: Can BTC Break $82,206 to Target $97,278? The forecast for Bitcoin's price in September 2026 remains bullish as BTC holds $76,871, with $82,206 being the immediate resistance to break. A weekly close above $82,206 could propel BTC towards the $97,278 Fibonacci extension level, while losing $76,871 would open the path down to $73,891. The broader bull market support band lies between $69,843 and $70,302; a weekly close below this range would weaken the cyclical bottom argument. Key levels include resistance at $82,206 (Fibonacci 1.0 extension) and $97,278 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension), with supports at $76,988, $73,891, and the $69,843-$70,302 band. Analysts highlight the 50-week moving average as a crucial indicator for confirming a cycle bottom. On-chain data shows whale accumulation of over 39,154 BTC (worth ~$3B) last week, signaling strong institutional interest. Michael Saylor hinted that MicroStrategy may resume its Bitcoin purchases. However, hawkish Fed comments and a single-day ETF outflow of $201.81 million on August 28th introduced some selling pressure. The bullish case for September targets $97,278, contingent on holding the bull market support band and seeing renewed ETF inflows alongside whale accumulation. The bearish scenario risks a drop to $69,843 if BTC fails to hold that support on a weekly close, potentially breaking the historical bottoming pattern and aligning with seasonal weakness.

cryptonews.ru08/31 12:54

Bitcoin Price Forecast for September 2026: Can BTC Surpass $82,206 to Target $97,278 in September?

cryptonews.ru08/31 12:54

Expert Outlines Key Levels for Bitcoin's Movement This Week

Bitcoin started the week after multiple attempts to hold above $80,000, failing to establish it as solid support. According to Kirill Komalenkov, director of strategic communications at Bitbanker, the cryptocurrency's movement will depend on upcoming US macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Following failed attempts above $80k, the market returned to the $77,000–79,000 range. The nearest resistance zone is $80,000–81,500, and a confident break could signal further upward movement. If sustained above this level, the next target is $83,000–85,000, seen as the potential upper boundary for the week. Key support lies at $75,000–76,000. A break below could lead to a decline toward $72,000–73,000, with a potential drop to $70,000 if external conditions worsen. The base range for the week is $74,000–83,000, but high volatility could widen it to $70,000–85,000. Bitcoin's dynamics are heavily influenced by US financial markets and Fed expectations, with the regulator's hawkish stance and persistent inflation limiting risk appetite. However, demand from US investors provides support. Upcoming US labor market data will be crucial: weak figures could boost hopes for less monetary tightening and aid Bitcoin's push above $80,000, while strong data combined with inflation could pressure the crypto market. Sustained movement toward $85,000 requires a combination of factors: holding above $80,000–81,500, continued institutional demand, and reduced fears of further Fed tightening. Until these conditions are met, Bitcoin is likely to trade in a wide, volatile range, with $85,000 as an upper test under favorable conditions and $70,000 as a lower boundary in a stress scenario.

cryptonews.ru08/31 10:05

Expert Outlines Key Levels for Bitcoin's Movement This Week

cryptonews.ru08/31 10:05

Prominent Economist Sharply Criticizes Recent Fed Policy: 'They Are Moving in the Wrong Direction'

Economist James E. Thorn sharply criticizes the recent monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, arguing it is moving in the wrong direction. He contends that current high inflation is driven significantly by supply-side factors like energy costs, housing shortages, and production constraints, rather than solely by overheated demand. Thorn believes further interest rate hikes may not address these root causes and could instead weaken the economy's productive capacity by hindering critical investments in areas like AI, data centers, and infrastructure. He points to declining full-time employment data and pressure in the interest-rate-sensitive housing sector as signs of structural economic transformation, not overheating. Thorn argues these trends reflect adaptation to changing fiscal policy and industrial conditions. He also differentiates between one-time price shocks from factors like tariffs or oil prices and a sustained inflationary spiral, suggesting the Fed's policy response may be misaligned. Thorn concludes that additional tightening could represent a deliberate suppression of demand based on a misdiagnosis, potentially stifling the economy's long-term investment and production capacity expansion.

cryptonews.ru08/29 21:03

Prominent Economist Sharply Criticizes Recent Fed Policy: 'They Are Moving in the Wrong Direction'

cryptonews.ru08/29 21:03

Bitcoin Holds $79,000, Ethereum and Solana Decline as Traders Lock in Weekly Gains

Bitcoin held around $79,000, down nearly 1%, as traders took profits after a 23% weekly surge. Other major cryptocurrencies declined, with XRP falling over 4% but still leading weekly gains at nearly 45%. Zcash dropped nearly 6%, keeping a 55% weekly increase. Ethereum and Solana fell over 1% and 3%, respectively, but retained strong weekly advances of 29% and nearly 16%. CryptoQuant's Bull Score jumped from 30 to 80, its highest since October 2025, with 8 of 10 indicators now signaling a bull trend. Visible spot demand is growing at the fastest monthly pace since late December, with spot and futures demand rising simultaneously for the first time since early October 2025. In contrast, equities moved higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 1%, supported by Samsung and SK Hynix, while Nvidia snapped a 7-day losing streak ahead of earnings. Market focus shifts to Q2 GDP data, July PCE inflation figures, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote at Jackson Hole. Markets price about a 60% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September.

cryptonews.ru08/26 07:57

Bitcoin Holds $79,000, Ethereum and Solana Decline as Traders Lock in Weekly Gains

cryptonews.ru08/26 07:57

Arthur Hayes Predicts New Financial Crisis and Bitcoin Rise to $126,000

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CEO of Flop Labs, predicts a new financial crisis similar to 2008, driven by the massive US national debt nearing $40 trillion. He argues that to avert a collapse, the Federal Reserve will engage in covert money printing and yield curve control, making digital assets a key capital preservation tool. Hayes calls Bitcoin the "purest relief valve" against central bank money printing, forecasting its price could soar to $126,000 by year-end and potentially reach $500,000 after any major capitulation event, possibly triggered by a crash to $35,000. He strongly criticizes US regulatory efforts like the Clarity Act, stating they stifle real innovation and that Bitcoin needs no legislation. Hayes also introduced his new project, Flop Network—a decentralized computing power marketplace designed for an AI agent economy, which will distribute 20% of its tokens via airdrops without venture capital funding. He concludes that crypto is becoming a crucial financial hedge amid global instability but warns investors to exercise extreme patience and discipline.

cryptonews.ru08/24 12:31

Arthur Hayes Predicts New Financial Crisis and Bitcoin Rise to $126,000

cryptonews.ru08/24 12:31

Morgan Stanley Research Report Analysis: Gold Hits Target Price of $4450 Earlier Than Expected, Central Bank Purchases Provide Bottom Support

Morgan Stanley's Commodity Update reports that gold has reached its Q4 2026 target of $4450/oz earlier than expected. The price surge, driven by declining Fed hike probabilities, reversed ETF outflows from May-June, with July-August seeing 70 tonnes of net inflows. Central bank buying provides strong support, with China purchasing 60 tonnes this year and Poland increasing holdings toward a 700-tonne target. Gold is decoupling from its traditional inverse relationship with the 10-year real yield, now pricing in fiscal concerns linked to rising yields rather than the yields themselves. While the Fed's path remains a dominant driver for ETF flows, new structural supports include sustained central bank purchases (345 tonnes in H1 2026), historically low COMEX short positions, and yield curve steepening driven by fiscal worries. Morgan Stanley sees a path for gold to surpass $5000/oz by 2027, with the combined scenario of a steady Fed, continued central bank buying, and deepening fiscal concern pricing supporting a higher price floor. Short-term volatility from inflation data and limited short-covering potential is expected but should not alter the overarching bullish trend.

marsbit08/21 07:31

Morgan Stanley Research Report Analysis: Gold Hits Target Price of $4450 Earlier Than Expected, Central Bank Purchases Provide Bottom Support

marsbit08/21 07:31

Morgan Stanley Research Report Analysis: Treasury's Repurchase Scale Doubles, The Logic for a Steepening Yield Curve Remains Unchanged

Morgan Stanley report: US Treasury doubles long-term bond buyback size, steepening yield curve thesis intact. The US Treasury will double the size of its regular liquidity support buyback operations for 10-20 year and 20-30 year bonds to at least $4 billion per operation starting Sept 9. Morgan Stanley views this move, the first adjustment outside a quarterly refunding window since the program's May 2024 launch, as a more important signal than the buybacks themselves. The Treasury is signaling close attention to long-end yield dynamics, using the tool to buy time ahead of the November refunding where it could cut long-term issuance. The report argues recent long-end yield rises and curve steepening are driven not by supply/deficit concerns but by repricing of energy prices and central bank policy paths. Analysis of cash Treasury vs. swap spreads shows no clear pattern consistent with dominant supply worries. The action echoes a November 2023 "supply surprise" that briefly flattened the curve. MS maintains its recommendation to steepen the 7s30s curve, targeting a 100 bps spread vs. ~71 bps currently. It believes fundamentals—cooling inflation, weaker-than-expected labor data, and potential downward revision of the Fed's terminal rate—will ultimately drive markets, supporting further steepening. In FX, MS strategists note the move was interpreted as a mild tool to curb USD strength. A refocus on USD policy could lead to further weakness, particularly against CHF, with EUR/USD potentially rising toward 1.2150.

marsbit08/21 02:31

Morgan Stanley Research Report Analysis: Treasury's Repurchase Scale Doubles, The Logic for a Steepening Yield Curve Remains Unchanged

marsbit08/21 02:31

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