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An AI Version of the 'Subprime Crisis'? A Hidden Debt of $1.8 Trillion is Accumulating in the Shadows Amid the Frenzy

Amidst the AI infrastructure construction boom, a massive debt expansion is forming, with the most dangerous portion remaining off-balance sheets. Morgan Stanley research reveals approximately $1.8 trillion in off-balance-sheet exposures, including nearly $1 trillion in purchase commitments and over $800 billion in non-active lease contracts. These future cash outflows are not recorded as liabilities. The leverage of hyperscale cloud companies has surged from 0.9x to 1.8x in just two quarters. Private credit firms like Apollo and Blackstone are shifting leverage into the supply chain through complex, opaque SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) financing structures. Global AI-related bond issuance has skyrocketed, with annual volume projected to exceed $570 billion. However, capital expenditure growth is outpacing revenue and free cash flow. Major cloud providers may see free cash flow approach zero or turn negative in 2026. A significant 'depreciation cliff' looms as vast amounts of current capital spending, recorded as 'construction in progress,' have yet to begin depreciating, artificially inflating current profit margins. Future depreciation could severely pressure earnings. The core risk is identified as a series of timing mismatches, not an immediate solvency crisis. Investment is racing ahead of monetization, leverage is being obscured, and accounting classifications hinder comparability. The entire financing structure faces a fundamental stress test if AI commercialization lags or enterprise clients shift to cheaper alternatives, potentially triggering chain reactions within the highly interconnected funding ecosystem.

marsbit06/15 07:38

An AI Version of the 'Subprime Crisis'? A Hidden Debt of $1.8 Trillion is Accumulating in the Shadows Amid the Frenzy

marsbit06/15 07:38

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