Bitcoin's 'No One to Take Over' Plunge: Where Is the Bottom?
Bitcoin's price continues to decline, briefly falling below $64,000 over the weekend and hitting its lowest level since early February, with a nearly 4% drop in 24 hours. The market has turned extremely fearful, as shown by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping to a low of 5.
Macro factors are contributing to the downturn, including potential global tariff increases and heightened geopolitical risks. Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks has strengthened, and the decline in AI-related stocks like IBM has added pressure.
Institutional outflows are another concern. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for multiple consecutive weeks, reducing support from passive long-term capital. Basis trades have become less profitable, and leveraged positions are vulnerable in a weakening macro environment.
On-chain data indicates that selling pressure from short-term holders, while still present, has slowed. Long-term holders remain relatively calm, but miner selling—such as Bitdeer liquidating its entire Bitcoin holdings—adds to the negative sentiment.
Technically, Bitcoin has broken below key support levels, and some analysts warn of a potential further drop to the $40,000–$50,000 range, or even lower in a severe bear scenario. However, prominent bulls remain optimistic about a long-term recovery.
The upcoming NVIDIA earnings report is seen as a near-term catalyst that could influence market sentiment, given Bitcoin’s heightened sensitivity to tech stock performance. Overall, the market is in a fragile state, and a sustained rebound may require an end to long-term holder selling or clearer signals of macro policy support.
比推Ayer 22:47
