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Reviewing Arthur Hayes' 2025: All Hype Calls Ultimately Lead to Cashing Out

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX and a prominent crypto influencer, had a highly profitable yet controversial 2025. While his public calls, such as predicting "$1 million Bitcoin" and "$10,000 ETH," attracted retail traders, his on-chain actions often contradicted his bullish narratives, resulting in gains for him and losses for followers. His strategies fell into three main categories: 1. **"Pump and Dump" of VC Coins**: Hayes frequently promoted tokens like Hyperliquid (HYPE), where he held early, low-cost shares. He would build hype with ambitious predictions, then sell near peaks. For instance, he sold HYPE just before a price drop, citing "unlock risks," only to buy back months later. 2. **Failed Revival of "Old Narratives"**: Attempts to boost outdated sectors like DeSci (e.g., BIO) and metaverse projects (e.g., WILD) largely failed. His investments in these areas saw significant losses, with some tokens dropping over 85%. 3. **The ZEC "Smokescreen"**: Hayes aggressively promoted Zcash (ZEC), claiming a "$10,000 target," while simultaneously selling ETH and other assets to fund ZEC purchases. This move allowed him to shift transparent assets (ETH) into privacy-focused ZEC, obscuring his true position. He later sold ETH again to reinvest in other areas, using ZEC’s volatility to divert market attention. Hayes operates as a pragmatic trader, not a steadfast "HODLer." His public analyses are valuable for macro insights, but his on-chain activity reveals a pattern of leveraging influence for personal profit. The key lesson: monitor his wallet actions, not just his words, to understand his true moves in a volatile crypto market.

marsbit01/29 09:50

Reviewing Arthur Hayes' 2025: All Hype Calls Ultimately Lead to Cashing Out

marsbit01/29 09:50

Arthur Hayes' Latest Podcast: Got the Script for Next Year, Already Fired 90% of the Bullets

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, shares his macro outlook and investment strategy in a recent podcast. He argues that the market is waiting for a "magic word like QE" from the Fed, but it won't come in its traditional form. Instead, he predicts a rebranded version of money printing called "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) will provide liquidity, with its full impact being recognized by the market around March next year, leading to a significant asset price recovery. Hayes is heavily invested, having deployed 90% of his capital, and remains confident in Bitcoin's long-term rise, reiterating a $250,000 price target for 2026. He warns against shorting AI-related stocks like NVIDIA, calling it a trap. For altcoins, he sees the next major narrative in privacy and ZK technologies, with Zcash (ZEC) as a current holding, though he acknowledges regulatory hurdles for privacy coins. He highlights Ethena (ENA) as one of his most successful and confident bets, expecting a sharp rally as monetary conditions ease. Hayes dismisses the idea that "altseason" is missing, stating it's always happening with new trends, and criticizes those who are too risk-averse to participate. The most dangerous macro narrative, in his view, is the belief that central banks will tighten policy. His key advice is to avoid excessive leverage and stop blaming market makers for price movements.

Odaily星球日报12/20 02:15

Arthur Hayes' Latest Podcast: Got the Script for Next Year, Already Fired 90% of the Bullets

Odaily星球日报12/20 02:15

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