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Don't Just Focus on Iran, the US Private Credit Crisis is Step by Step Repeating the 'Subprime Crisis'

Amidst geopolitical tensions, a private credit crisis is rapidly unfolding within the US financial system, drawing parallels to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Major asset managers are facing significant stress: BlackRock restricted redemptions from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund (HLEND), capping repurchases at 5% despite 9.3% redemption requests to avoid forced asset sales. Similarly, Blackstone’s $82 billion private credit fund (BCRED) saw a record 7.9% in redemption demands, prompting internal capital injections to avoid gating. Blue Owl Capital, whose stock fell below its $10 SPAC IPO price, sold $1.4 billion in loans to manage redemptions, exacerbating liquidity fears. PIMCO issued a stark warning, predicting a "full default cycle" for direct lending due to relaxed underwriting standards, overexposure to the software sector (vulnerable to AI disruption), and insufficient liquidity compensation for investors. The crisis highlights structural vulnerabilities: semi-liquid funds offering quarterly redemptions are backed by long-duration private loans, creating a mismatch. Redemptions force asset sales, driving down valuations and triggering further withdrawals—a vicious cycle reminiscent of 2008. With the private credit market valued at $1.8 trillion, systemic risks from opacity, concentration, and liquidity mismatches are now under severe strain.

比推03/09 05:28