Every sharp parabolic rally can easily be written off as another hype cycle.
At first glance, Cardano [ADA] seems to fit that narrative. After three consecutive red quarters, each posting average losses of more than 40%, ADA had become one of the weakest-performing major altcoins this cycle. But is that trend finally starting to reverse?
From the technical standpoint, ADA has kicked off Q3 with a strong 30% rally, outperforming the broader altcoin market. More notably, its gains are over 2.3x larger than Ethereum’s [ETH] so far this quarter, suggesting that capital may be rotating back into ADA as momentum begins to build.
But zooming into the charts, things start looking a bit different.
On the daily timeframe, ADA has already pulled back more than 2% in under 48 hours after pushing above the $0.20 level, a resistance it also failed to clear back in mid-June. That repeated rejection keeps a breakdown firmly in play. Pair that with a near-parabolic run over the past week, and it’s not surprising to see traders taking profits instead of chasing higher prices.
At first glance, that makes it easy to label ADA’s rally as just another hype cycle. The fundamentals don’t help that case either. Cardano’s total value locked (TVL) has dropped nearly 68% over the past year. According to DefiLlama, TVL has fallen from $276.19 million to around $89.16 million today, a sharp decline that suggests on-chain liquidity has yet to catch up with the recent price action.
Taken together, the charts and on-chain data make ADA’s recent 2% pullback look like the start of a deeper correction. But markets are all about timing. And right now, the timing suggests FOMO is still in play.
On-chain data strengthens ADA’s bullish case
Cardano’s strong start to Q3 could be the first sign that momentum is finally shifting back in ADA’s favor.
The technicals, however, still have one job to do: flip resistance into support. Currently, $0.20 remains the key level to watch. A clean break above it could be enough to bring FOMO, with $0.25 acting as the next major hurdle. If that level gives way, a move toward $0.30 starts looking increasingly realistic.
The broader backdrop is also turning supportive. Altcoin momentum continues to build, and July has historically been one of the strongest months for the sector. That makes ADA’s recent cooldown look more like a healthy reset than a trend reversal, putting the focus on what the on-chain data is saying.
According to Santiment, Cardano has added 14,783 new non-empty wallets since its June 2023 low.
The timing is key. Just weeks ago, ADA was at the center of peak FUD, with concerns over ecosystem growth and technical weakness. Yet wallet growth continued to climb even as TVL kept slipping.
That’s an interesting divergence. Liquidity may still be lagging, but user participation isn’t. If anything, it suggests conviction is quietly building beneath the surface, increasing the odds that price eventually catches up. If ADA can reclaim $0.20, the path toward $0.30 starts looking much more realistic.
Final Summary
