Compiled by: Hash Global
Recently, Hash Global founder KK and Noah Olive Global CEO Ms. Peng Jing exchanged views on the development stages of Web3, the value of the BNB ecosystem, and digital asset allocation at the Noah Black Diamond Client Annual Conference. The content is as follows:
Jing: Hash Global has been investing in Web3 since 2018, engaging in both early-stage project investments and secondary markets; it is both an early node of BNB Chain and has launched a crypto fund for institutions and families. It can be said to have experienced this industry "across the entire cycle and the entire chain." Looking back from 2018 to today, what in the Crypto industry has truly been disproven, and what are the long-term directions you are increasingly confident in?
KK: What has truly been disproven, I think, is excessive construction detached from actual needs, done solely for the sake of a vision. Web3 has many things built because "I think the metaverse needs it, so I'll build it." These infrastructures will be abandoned, just like the excessively laid submarine cables in the early days of the internet. In recent years, the Web3 industry has seen many meaningful attempts, such as socialfi, gamefi, etc., none of which have succeeded yet. I think these are temporarily disproven. I believe there will be another wave, and then another, and perhaps the third wave will succeed. Many things that were not feasible or mature before will become mature and viable once the business environment and policies are ready, and there are enough real Web3 product users. In my view, the technology is already there; now it's about finding the weak links in existing business models and the real first-dimensional pain points, and having the right team develop new models. The AI industry is the same; development is a spiral upward. Many things that are temporarily "disproven" might just have been done too early. If you tried to create Yahoo in 1990 or Google in 1996, you couldn't have done it, no matter how strong the team was. This is the objective law of development.
Over these years, although the industry has had bubbles and falsehoods from time to time, it has been moving forward every year, with many advancements each year. I often say that the Web3 industry is too close to "money," making entrepreneurs easily "distracted," unlike AI industry entrepreneurs who are very focused. Some former entrepreneurs may have left the industry, but more are coming in. I heard from a friend recently that this year's Wanxiang Shanghai summit had a huge turnout, unprecedented in years, even more lively than the Hong Kong Bitcoin conference. The Wanxiang blockchain team and Mr. Xiao Feng have been consistently promoting the entire industry's spiral rise over the long term.
Web3 technology has already demonstrated great power in finance and payments, but as the infrastructure of the next generation of the internet, it hasn't seen large-scale applications yet. Even some friends in the industry ask if Web3 is just a kind of Fintech. We believe that the significance of Web3 for business is actually the same as that of Bitcoin for finance. The underlying ledger technology has changed, so both finance and business will change. It's just that the Web3 user base is still too small and hasn't formed a network effect. Web3 is a network-based technology that needs to cross a certain user threshold, unlike AI, which is a point-based technology. AI is productivity, it's explicit, while Web3 is a production-relation technology. When it explodes, it will be subtle and silent. Our parents might be using it without even knowing.
Web3 applications now need to focus on solving business problems. We have already seen some projects using Web3 technology to genuinely improve the operational efficiency of internet products. While reducing costs and increasing efficiency, some entirely new business models are emerging. For example: fans and creators binding through Web3 technology to verify and distribute benefits. Because it makes business sense, we are very confident in the long term; it's just a matter of who does it first and who scales it first.
Jing: What is the role and positioning of BNB in the entire Binance ecosystem? From an external perspective, people know that Binance has an exchange, a chain, a Launchpad, and ecosystem projects, but they might not clearly understand what role BNB truly plays in this entire system? What is the long-term "value anchor" of BNB? In the next 3-5 years, where will the focus of BNB in the ecosystem move from and to?
KK: BNB is the ecosystem token issued by Binance, the core value carrier of the BNB ecosystem. If you pay attention, we generally don't say Binance ecosystem or币安ecosystem, but rather BNB ecosystem.
How to understand BNB? Let me give an example. If Tesla hadn't issued stock on Nasdaq, I believe Elon Musk would issue a Tesla token on the chain. Then Tesla owners could use the Tesla token to get discounts at charging stations anywhere in the world. Elon could use the Tesla token to bind the interests of shareholders, users, management, upstream and downstream partners, and all other ecosystem participants together. It could also be used in brother companies like SpaceX. In the Web2 world, loyalty points between companies are hard to integrate; but in Web3, points or tokens are naturally integrated because they are on one ledger (chain). The Tesla token could also extend beyond Musk's business empire. This is a全新的 organizational model that doesn't require complete decentralization to unleash huge economic growth and user emotional value. Once Tesla stock (data) moves out of the Nasdaq and DTC (Note: Depository Trust Company) databases and becomes an on-chain token, all kinds of businesses worldwide could exchange value with Musk's business system through the Tesla token, achieving verifiable commercial trust. In comparison, Tesla stock can only bind management and shareholders at most. This is the value of Web3 technology. How can Web3 be just a Fintech? And BNB is Binance's ecosystem token. This BNB has been running实践 for 8 years; our template is already there.
Hash Global defines utility tokens like BNB, which have both value input support and various functionalities, as value-functional tokens. We predict the number of functional tokens will explode in the next three years. We recently published a somewhat academic report discussing everything on-chain and value-functional tokens. We even invited Noah's Chairman Wang to write a commentary for our report; you can find it online. The IDOL token of Meet48, a leader in the entertainment industry that we invested in, is also a value-functional token. We encourage projects to design their ecosystem tokens参照 BNB. For a token to have value, the business model it relies on must first be healthy and sustainable.
The value anchor of BNB has at least two aspects: 1) Various utilities within the ecosystem; 2) The value support provided by BNB Chain and Binance exchange. The core of the BNB ecosystem is BNB. Through 8 years of exploration and practice, Binance has effectively concentrated and empowered various ecosystem interests onto BNB. The提升 of the core engine's value - BNB - helps attract more users, more high-quality asset issuance and trading, thereby attracting more developers to build. This engine has been organically and efficiently bound to various parts of the BNB ecosystem. In our view, the efficiency and power of this engine are unique in the industry.
Binance recently obtained a full license from ADGM in Abu Dhabi. Binance exchange already has over 300 million users globally, and the entire BNB ecosystem, including BNB Chain users, has over 500 million users. This is a genuine, and currently the only, internet-like financial infrastructure. After 8 years of hard work, CZ, He Yi, and the Binance management team have built a massive financial aircraft carrier that can provide comprehensive services for the emerging AI-powered digital economy. When it emerges, it will inevitably collide with the old financial landscape and institutions. In this process, the Binance team has endured much pressure, even some unfair treatment targeting individuals. We should thank Binance's founders and team; their contribution to the entire Web3 finance and ecosystem development surpasses all other platforms. Precisely because this path is arduous, filled with uncertainty and pressure unbearable for ordinary people, and requires constant innovation and maintaining vigorous combat effectiveness, we believe its growth path is也很难被复制.
In the future, all assets will be issued and traded on-chain. These aren't my words; they were said by Paul Atkins, Chairman of the U.S. SEC. Let me add: not just financial assets, but all non-financial assets and many things that currently cannot be assetized will also be issued and traded on-chain. You might not know, but it's already possible to buy and sell many tokenized U.S. stocks on-chain, and over half of the global trading volume happens on BNB Chain. BNB has de facto become the primary pricing tool for many digital assets once they are on-chain,而不是由稳定币定价. And for a new stablecoin to gain liquidity and scale, it must also gain Binance's support. In the next 3-5 years, in this new era of everything on-chain, we believe the BNB ecosystem will be the biggest beneficiary. All assets will seek liquidity support from the BNB ecosystem. BNB is not only the power engine of the BNB ecosystem but also of the entire Web3 ecosystem and the digital economy.
Jing: How should families and high-net-worth clients "get on board for the first time"? In a global multi-asset portfolio, what is a reasonable allocation range for Web3 / Crypto overall?
KK: I think after an investor allocates to low-risk, foundational assets like insurance, gold, bonds, real estate, etc., they should allocate a certain proportion to growth assets. Among growth assets, we are most optimistic about AI and Web3. Professor Zeng Ming said that the upper layer of future intelligent business is the productivity brought by AI, and the underlying large-scale coordination network can only be Web3. In my view, AI and Web3 are two sides of the same coin of the digital economy. Let me give an example: everyone is optimistic about the future explosion of agents, and value exchange between agents cannot happen through bank accounts; it can only happen through on-chain addresses provided by Web3. We just held a machine economy forum in Dubai during the Binance Blockchain Week with Nasdaq-listed company Robo.AI and leading Web3 project in the machine economy field, Arkreen. Value exchange between machines can also only happen through Web3. So I suggest that for growth assets, allocate half to AI and half to Web3.
Jing: Standing at the point of 2025, from the perspective of family offices and high-net-worth clients, what three main lines would you use to summarize the main opportunities and main risks for investment in the next 3-5 years?
KK: 1) First, I think in the next 3-5 years, the risk for traditional investors,同时也是 opportunity, might be underallocating to Web3 and overallocating to AI. Considering the high consensus in the AI industry and the many noises and low attention in the Web3 or digital asset industry, I think one should consciously increase the allocation to digital assets.
2) Second, investors might overfocus on finding Alpha and neglect Beta. Actually, in the Web3 industry, it's very difficult to outperform BTC or outperform BNB, just like it's difficult to outperform Nvidia and Google in the AI industry. So investors must first抓住 Beta and avoid the risk of missing out on leading assets. Look at the leaders from the internet era; they are still leaders in the mobile internet era, even entering the AI era. How many times have they multiplied?! They occupy the leading position and enjoy the红利 of technological development and the era's progress: Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Alibaba, Tencent, etc. Web3 is the same; first抓住 the leaders and core scarce assets, and once you have them, don't let go. These are bottom-of-the-box assets, whose importance, in my personal view, even exceeds assets like real estate.
The third opportunity and risk is: insufficient attention to the Web3 industry. Everyone knows what to allocate to in the AI industry. You might be surrounded by various research reports daily, and you might be able to recite Nvidia and Microsoft's earnings data, but is pondering over so many operational data really that important? Leave this to Noah's professional team to track. You can free up some time to learn about Web3. If you bought BTC, do you really understand BTC? If you really study it seriously, you might not need to ask me, "Can I buy BTC at this price?"
Friends who follow the Web3 industry sometimes ask me what I think about Coinbase and Circle stocks? I say I don't know much, but they should be good. I actually think, why does no one ever ask me what I think about leading digital assets like BNB? I suggest everyone spend a little effort to learn about and understand digital assets like BNB. You can look online for YZi Labs' research report on BNB and our report "Valuation Methods for Value-Functional Tokens." Trust me, you might not necessarily understand the value of BTC, but if you can understand Coinbase's research reports, you can definitely understand analysis reports on BNB. For me, the difference between buying Coinbase stock and buying BNB is like the difference between Suning stock and Alibaba equity in 2009: one is a traditional enterprise using internet technology, the other is a native internet enterprise. They are not on the same dimension; the value creation mode of native new technology is much more valuable. Coinbase is great, you should invest, but since you are bullish on Web3 and digital assets, you should try to pick native Web3 assets.
Last week in the Middle East, I spoke with two large investment institutions, and the consensus was that BNB is the elephant in the room. Everyone must take BNB seriously. I also worked in the traditional asset management industry for over ten years. I think the most underestimated asset in the digital asset industry, while simultaneously being relatively easiest for traditional investors to understand and accept, is BNB. Buffett called Bitcoin rat poison, but given the opportunity, I am somewhat confident I could persuade him to buy BNB. Everyone must not miss this asset in the next ten years.
I think current BNB is like Moutai stock in 2004. Before 2004, only retail investors who drank Moutai knew how fragrant it was. After 2004, institutions才开始认真研究茅台 and started building positions. Now, only people in the Web3 industry know how good it is to hold BNB; people outside the circle don't feel it and aren't aware of BNB's core position in the industry. I tell you, institutions are starting to look now. The large U.S. asset company VanEck recently submitted a product application for a BNB ETF in the U.S. For such a high-growth, high-return垄断性 asset, you invest, hold it不动, hold it for ten, twenty years. The current institutional holding ratio for BTC is 12%, ETH is 9%, and BNB is only 0.4%. You can look at Moutai's stock price trend after 2004; it rose over ten times in 4 years. Part of the rise was due to its own performance growth, but a larger part came from institutional consensus. Institutional views are contagious.
Jing: Within Crypto, how should assets like BTC / ETH / BNB and others be roughly stratified and allocated?
KK: We've been saying for years that BTC, ETH, and BNB are three "one of its kind" assets in the digital asset industry. In their respective categories, there is only one of each. All three have high long-term value, but they are actually completely different things. In terms of specific比例, I would suggest allocating 40% to BTC, 20% to ETH, and 40% to BNB. I suggest overweighting BNB mainly because holding the token can yield better ecosystem returns, and the development speed and efficiency of the BNB ecosystem are much higher. I believe BNB's value can surpass ETH's in the medium term. Ethereum's value will need to be fully realized after the Web3 ecosystem完全展开, which might take ten years? By then, everyone will see how much we truly need completely decentralized infrastructure to unfold. There is a sequence issue here, and there is still uncertainty. I must declare I am very bullish on ETH; we also hold ETH. It's just that on the business end, whoever can provide better service and solve real problems better will be more valuable.
The ecosystem yield from holding BNB is currently over 10%+, and it also gets burned at 3-4% annually, together nearly 15%左右. This yield comes from the core position of the BNB ecosystem in the Web3 industry. This core position is like Nvidia's in the AI industry. Everyone knows there is Nvidia in the AI industry; I tell you, there is also a Nvidia in the Web3 industry. As long as you spend a little more time learning, you can find this超大 Beta for the next ten years. And the most beautiful part is that traditional large institutions are just beginning to learn and understand, just like the institutions that started looking at Moutai in 2004, and those fund managers didn't drink Moutai back then.
