On August 24, Bitcoin reached the $80,000 mark, showing a 38% increase compared to the July 1, 2026 low of $57,800. Analysts disagree on what is behind this movement—the beginning of a new bullish cycle or another bounce within a bear market.
Bull Market or a Trap?
Analyst Rekt Capital noted in his newsletter that Bitcoin is moving contrary to historical patterns. According to his observations, August has traditionally been a "red" month in bear markets, along with September, so the probability of a decline during this period was usually much higher than the "green" August currently observed.
Nevertheless, the analyst points out that the current reversal could well remain part of a rally within a bear market rather than a full-fledged trend reversal. He presents three arguments:
If the low recorded in July indeed turns out to be the bottom of the bear cycle, then the time taken to form it would be 27% shorter than the average time it took to form a bottom in previous cycles. However, such a conclusion can only be drawn if a new, deeper low is not formed by the end of 2026.
A "macro triangle" has formed on Bitcoin's monthly chart—a pattern where a horizontal support line around $80,000 converges with a descending resistance line. The breakdown of this pattern downwards in July led to the drop to $57,800. In previous cycles—in 2014, 2018, and 2020—breakdowns of similar patterns were accompanied by price drops of 62.67%, 48.82%, and 55.24% respectively. In contrast, the current decline was only 30.37%, which is noticeably less than the historical norm.
Despite the impressive rise, the price has not managed to break through the descending macro trend line originating from the highs of early 2025—meaning that Bitcoin is still technically forming lower highs, indicating weakness on higher timeframes.
According to the analyst's calculations, the descending trend line this month is around $79,000, and next month it will drop to about $76,300, as it is a dynamic resistance. He believes that closing the month below this line would pave the way for a correction. At the same time, he acknowledges that breaking through the resistance in September might be easier precisely because of its downward shift. However, if the rally does turn out to be temporary, the price is unlikely to hold at the achieved highs for long and will partially retreat.
On the weekly chart, the current rally has just met resistance in the area of $74,500 - $83,500, while the nearest support zone is located in the range of $62,500 - $68,500.
Two Levels on the Liquidation Map
Crypto blogger Crypto Rover drew attention to Bitcoin's liquidation map, where two key levels currently stand out. In the range of $80,000 - $90,000, short positions are concentrated, whose liquidation could push the price higher. Meanwhile, in the zone of $48,000 - $60,000, there is a cluster of long positions. The blogger questions which of these levels will be reached first, calling them "two magnets" for the price.
The AI Opinion
From the perspective of the accuracy of forecasts, it makes sense to compare not one, but several previous signals from Rekt Capital with what happened afterward.
On April 9, 2025, the analyst suggested that the correction following the "tariff crash" of Bitcoin, which dropped the price by 7% on April 3, would end around the $70,000 mark. By May 10, Bitcoin had already consolidated above $100,000 with a new target of $160,000—the bottom indeed turned out to be near the forecast, but the upward reversal was stronger and faster than the RSI signal suggested.
In the fall of 2025, the error shifted to the other side. On November 19, Rekt Capital assessed the 29% drop from the October peak of $126,198 as the most dramatic in the cycle, and by November 21, the correction, according to the site's data, had reached 35%. By the end of the month, the market, judging by the platform's materials, was forming a short-term bottom with a target for a rebound to $100,000–110,000. However, the rally did not hold: by early February 2026, the price had fallen below $73,000, and the drawdown from the peak exceeded 40%—almost double the "most dramatic" drop claimed in November. The subsequent decline to $57,800 by July 2026, mentioned in the current article, brought the total drawdown from the October high to 54%.
In both cases, the analyst correctly indicated the direction of the movement but underestimated its scale: in the spring of 2025—the strength of the recovery; in the fall of 2025—the depth of the decline. In today's article, he again speaks of weakness on higher timeframes, despite the rise to $80,000.
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