Bitcoin mining profitability increased by 10% in a month, but miner activity has not recovered. The cost of mining remains above the market price of the cryptocurrency.
According to data from CloverPool, the "hash price" indicator, which reflects the daily income of miners per unit of hash rate (equipment power), was around $32.52 per 1 Ph/s on August 6. At the beginning of July, it was around $29.67.
This is an average value that does not account for varying expenses from region to region, but it still serves as an important marker. At the beginning of the year, the "hash price" was $37, but since then it has already fallen by 12%.
Bitcoin itself has fallen in price by almost 26% in the first seven months of the year. The difference between the price drop and the drop in profitability is explained by the fact that over the same period, mining difficulty has fallen by almost 15%—one of the most important factors in assessing cryptocurrency mining profitability. The drop in difficulty, caused by decreased miner activity, partially compensated for the price drop in the calculations, as mining cryptocurrency became easier.
Despite the increase in profitability, miners are in no hurry to increase activity, as the average cost of mining a Bitcoin still exceeds its market value. This situation has been ongoing for several months; the last time the cost approached the price was in May, and before that—in January. According to JPMorgan estimates, about 20% of miners are operating at a loss.
The miners' reward for mining a block is 3.125 $BTC, which is valued at $202 thousand at the current price. At the beginning of the year, with a price of about $87.5 thousand per $BTC, a miner could receive the same 3.125 $BTC for one block, but they were worth $273 thousand.
According to the model of the Checkonchain service, which calculates the average cost based on network difficulty (purple curve on the chart), mining one Bitcoin costs on average about $77.7 thousand. The Bitcoin price as of 12:30 Moscow time on August 6 is $64.7 thousand.
It is important to understand that this estimate is as conditional as the average profitability indicators, although both provide a certain reference point. There is no single cost of mining for all miners; it depends on equipment, electricity costs, data center conditions, taxes, legislation, and other factors that vary greatly from country to country.
On the night of Sunday, August 9, the next mining difficulty adjustment is scheduled. So far, it is forecasted that the difficulty will increase by 1.2%.
The average global hash rate, reflecting miner activity, was 935 Eh/s (exahashes per second) for the week, and 857 Eh/s over the last 24 hours. If this decline continues, the mining difficulty could decrease at the next adjustment.
