Original Author: Glassnode
Original Compilation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
Bitcoin has climbed back above $80,000, with ETF inflows, spot demand, and positioning all showing improvement. However, weak capital inflow intensity and heavy overhead supply around $86,000 keep market conviction below the levels seen in previous bull phases.
Summary
- US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have turned decisively positive again, as institutional demand reignites with Bitcoin's recovery from the mid-$60,000s to the low $80,000s.
- Relative Unrealized Loss for Bitcoin peaked at 25% of market cap during the February sell-off and has since compressed to 8% after reclaiming $80,000, supporting the view that this remains a shallow correction if the $60,000 level holds.
- The 30-day net position change in Realized Cap has recovered to $2.8B per month, indicating improving capital inflow, but it remains far below the >$10B per month levels seen during prior bull market expansions.
- The 30-day cost basis sits at $76.9k, forming immediate short-term support, while the $86.9k level from the November-February accumulation range remains the key near-term resistance for the recovery.
- Coinbase spot volume Delta has turned sharply positive over the past two weeks, indicating increasingly aggressive buyer activity and strengthening spot market demand.
- Hyperliquid traders are steadily rebuilding long exposure as price rises, reflecting improved speculative sentiment and growing confidence in further upside continuation.
- Implied Volatility continues to compress across the curve, led by the front end, while realized volatility trends lower, with the market pricing in a calmer near-term regime.
- Skew compression indicates weakening demand for downside hedges, with a more balanced options structure around $80,000.
- Market maker positioning remains a key driver of short-term dynamics, with a large negative Gamma cluster around $82,000 still capable of amplifying price moves if spot re-enters that zone.
Macro Insights
The macro backdrop remains a tug-of-war between slowing growth and sticky inflation. Recent US inflation data came in hotter than expected, while the labor market remains more resilient than many anticipated. Consequently, the market has pushed back rate-cut expectations further, keeping Treasury yields elevated and financial conditions relatively tight.
Liquidity remains a key driver for risk assets. Equities continue to grind higher, but fragility persists beneath the surface as markets adjust to the higher-for-longer interest rate reality. Meanwhile, strength in oil and commodities continues to push up inflation expectations, especially against a backdrop of persistent geopolitical tensions.
For digital assets, the picture remains constructive yet selective. Bitcoin shows resilience despite tightening liquidity conditions and a strong dollar, suggesting underlying demand remains intact. However, soft ETF inflows and high real yields indicate that more sustained upside likely requires easier financial conditions or a new catalyst to rekindle broader risk appetite.
On-Chain Insights
From Fear to Uncertainty
Amidst a macro backdrop of sticky inflation, high Treasury yields, and tighter financial conditions, Bitcoin continues to show relative resilience, suggesting underlying demand remains intact even as the broader risk environment stays unsettled. To assess the current cycle's position from a structural perspective, the Relative Unrealized Loss metric (measuring the total USD value of unrealized losses held by all investors as a proportion of total market cap) provides a precise cycle barometer. During the February flash crash, this metric peaked at 25% of market cap, a reading signaling significant stress but still far from the extremes recorded in prior bear market cycles. Following the reclaim of $80,000, it has compressed to around 8%, a shift translating the dominant sentiment from fear toward uncertainty, not outright capitulation.
If $60,000 proves to be this cycle's low, this bear market would be the shallowest on record—it logged fear but fell well short of the widespread washouts that have historically marked durable cycle bottoms.
The Scale of Capital Inflows
As sentiment shifts from fear toward uncertainty, the key question is whether the current rebound is a typical bear-market rally or the early stage of a genuine bull-market transition. The most direct measure is to examine net capital inflow, captured by the 30-day net position change in Realized Cap, which tracks the monthly change in the total capital stored on-chain. With the recent rally to $82,000, this metric has reached $2.8B per month, a positive figure explaining the constructive momentum of recent weeks.
Yet context is crucial: during the early stages of each major leg higher in the 2023–2025 bull market, this metric rapidly accelerated from around $2B per month to over $10B. The current reading, while encouraging, remains well below that threshold, indicating the capital inflows underpinning this recovery lack the conviction seen at similar inflection points in prior cycles.
Support and Resistance Through a Cost-Basis Lens
With capital inflows still modest and uncertainty lingering despite a 37% rebound from $60,000 to $82,000, realized price metrics segmented by holding period provide a granular framework to identify the most immediate support and resistance levels. This model tracks the average purchase price of coins segmented by holding period, mapping behavioral anchors of different investor cohorts onto the price chart.
The momentum of the current rebound has been primarily driven by accumulation waves over the past 30 days, whose cost basis currently sits around $76.9k, forming the most immediate short-term support floor. Overhead, the cost basis of investors who accumulated during the market consolidation between November and February clusters around $86.9k, representing the most likely near-term resistance zone as these holders approach breakeven and face increasing incentives to distribute.
Off-Chain Insights
ETF Demand Rebuilding
US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have turned decisively positive in recent weeks, with sustained flows returning as Bitcoin reclaims ground above $80,000. After months of unstable demand and significant outflows in Q1, the latest shift suggests institutional demand is beginning to re-engage in a more meaningful way.
Importantly, the recovery in ETF demand has shown persistence rather than being driven by a single allocation spike, indicating institutions are steadily accumulating as market conditions improve. Inflow intensity has also accelerated alongside price, reinforcing the view that traditional capital is again supporting momentum rather than stepping back during rallies.
The current structure shows significant market structure improvement compared to earlier this year. ETF inflows are now a tailwind rather than a persistent source of selling pressure, removing one of the key headwinds that previously limited recovery attempts. If sustained, continued institutional accumulation could provide the needed demand foundation for Bitcoin to challenge higher overhead supply zones in the coming weeks.
Coinbase Spot Buying Re-accelerates
Coinbase spot volume Delta has turned sharply positive over the past two weeks, with aggressive buyer activity returning as Bitcoin retakes the low $80,000s. This latest shift contrasts starkly with the persistent selling pressure that dominated much of Q1, when negative Deltas consistently reinforced downward momentum.
Importantly, the latest move higher has been accompanied by repeated increases in positive spot buying volume, rather than isolated buying spikes, suggesting sustained demand is beginning to absorb overhead supply. The pick-up in Coinbase activity also aligns closely with the recovery in ETF inflows, indicating both onshore US and institutional buyers are re-engaging.
The current structure indicates spot demand is again becoming a supportive force for price, rather than a source of distribution. Continued strength in Coinbase buyer flows, especially when coupled with rising ETF inflows, points to improving market conviction and healthier underlying demand dynamics for the latest rebound.
Hyperliquid Traders Increasingly Long
Positioning on Hyperliquid has grown increasingly long-biased in recent weeks, with net BTC holdings rising steadily as Bitcoin recovers to the low $80,000s. This shift marks a notable reversal from the persistent short bias that dominated the market for much of Q1, when markets retreated to the low $60,000s.
Importantly, the recent increase in long exposure has developed gradually rather than through a single crowded-position spike, indicating traders are steadily rebuilding directional bullish exposure as market conditions improve. Net positioning is now near its strongest long bias since late 2025, reflecting growing confidence in upside continuation.
Sustained long positioning as price action advances suggests improved trader sentiment and a more constructive speculative backdrop, although increasingly crowded long exposure could leave markets more sensitive to short-term volatility and liquidation-driven pullbacks.
Implied Volatility Trends Lower
Bitcoin Implied Volatility turned lower over the past week, with the front month declining from 39% to 34.6%. Longer tenors also moved lower in tandem, dropping roughly 1–2 volatility points across the curve.
This move reflects an overall repricing lower across the term structure as traders lower expectations for near-term realized volatility. The decline follows a recent volatility bounce and accompanies more contained spot action, reinforcing the view that markets are returning to a calmer regime.
As Implied Volatility compresses, option costs decline across tenors, especially at the front end which is most sensitive to short-term positioning and demand shifts.
The current structure reflects markets pricing in less dramatic moves ahead, with volatility supply continuing to outstrip demand across the curve.
Volatility Risk Premium Remains Positive
While Implied Volatility continues to compress across the curve, realized volatility is falling faster. Bitcoin 30-day realized volatility currently stands at 30.48%, trending steadily lower over recent weeks as spot action remains relatively contained.
Meanwhile, front-month Implied Volatility remains around 36.4%, still pricing in more volatility ahead than Bitcoin's recent spot moves have delivered, maintaining a positive volatility risk premium. In other words, options continue to price more volatility ahead than Bitcoin's recent spot moves have delivered.
The spread between implied and realized volatility has also rebuilt over the past two to three weeks, recovering to around 6 volatility points after briefly compressing to flat in April. This suggests that despite the overall volatility reset lower, option demand remains elevated relative to realized volatility.
Thus, even as overall volatility continues to soften on both implied and realized dimensions, hedging conditions remain favorable for volatility sellers.
Skew Compression Indicates Weakening Downside Hedge Demand
As volatility expectations continue to reset lower, skew is also normalizing across the curve. This move is most pronounced at the front end, where 1-week 25-delta skew compressed from around -10% to -4% over the past week. Longer tenors softened in tandem as well, with 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month tenors all losing roughly 1–2 points of put premium.
Notably, this compression is occurring against a backdrop of Bitcoin consolidating around the $80,000 range and a less supportive macro environment. Rather than showing increased demand for downside protection, the options surface continues to reprice toward a more balanced structure.
This upward move reflects a steady reduction in the premium of puts relative to calls, indicating that demand for downside protection is gradually easing, not intensifying, across the curve.
While skew across tenors remains in put territory, the ongoing compression suggests downside hedge demand is gradually moderating rather than mounting.
Market Maker Gamma Keeps Spot Sensitive Around $82,000
Market maker positioning continues to create reactive structures around current price levels. The largest concentration of negative Gamma sits at the $82,000 strike, with exposure around $2.6B, while positive Gamma accumulates near $85,000, close to $1.8B.
With spot remaining below the negative Gamma cluster at $82,000, a move back into that zone could trigger reactive market-maker hedging flows, reinforcing momentum and amplifying price moves. Further above, the positive Gamma concentration near $85,000 could suppress volatility.
Flows also reflect positioning shifts. Over the past 7 days, put buying accounted for 71% of premium flow, reflecting high demand for downside protection during recent consolidation. In the last 24 hours, 58% of flow came from put selling, indicating some hedges are being unwound.
This structure leaves markets increasingly sensitive to amplifying hedging flows if spot re-enters the large negative Gamma cluster around $82,000.
Conclusion
In summary, Bitcoin's recovery continues to strengthen beneath the surface, with spot-led demand, reigniting ETF inflows, and improved speculative positioning contributing to a more constructive market structure. The sharp compression in Relative Unrealized Loss, alongside stabilization in key on-chain profitability and liquidity metrics, suggests the February decline is increasingly viewed as a cyclical reset rather than the start of a deeper bear market.
Simultaneously, characteristics of this rebound clearly differ from the aggressive expansions seen during the 2023–2025 period. Capital inflows are recovering but remain far below prior breakout thresholds, while volatility compression and calmer derivatives positioning point to markets gradually rebuilding confidence rather than entering a frenzy phase. This makes the current advance appear more like a structurally supported recovery than a fully confirmed momentum breakout.
As Bitcoin now re-enters the dense overhead supply zone between $82,000 and $87,000, markets are entering a region where price discovery becomes increasingly important. Sustained holding in this zone will likely require stronger spot participation and deeper capital rotation to absorb the remaining overhead supply. Until then, the broader structure continues to improve, but conviction appears to still be in the process of being rebuilt rather than fully restored.
