a16z：9 张图读懂稳定币未来演化方向

marsbitPublicado a 2026-04-27Actualizado a 2026-04-27

撰文:Robert Hackett、Jeremy Zhang,a16z crypto

编译:Chopper,Foresight News

多年以来,稳定币一直在寻找自身的核心定位。

起初,它只是一种交易工具,用于在各大交易所之间转移美元资产。随后,稳定币转变为储蓄工具,成为人们长期持有、而非日常消费的资产。如今,各项数据指向一个全新发展方向:稳定币正在成为全球核心金融基础设施。

以下九张图表展示了推动这一变革的底层趋势。

监管落地加速市场增长

在稳定币发展的大部分阶段,监管不确定性长期限制机构资金入场。随着《GENIUS 法案》落地,监管框架走向清晰。该法案并非催生行业趋势的源头,而是加速了这一趋势的发展。

《GENIUS 法案》通过前后,稳定币交易量变化

美国通过《GENIUS 法案》,首次建立联邦层面的稳定币发行监管框架。数据变化直观印证政策影响:在法案落地前数个季度,稳定币调整交易量已持续走高;法案生效后,增长进一步提速,2026 年第一季度交易量达到约 4.5 万亿美元。

MiCA 推动了非美元稳定币市场

欧洲加密资产监管框架《加密资产市场法案》(MiCA)的落地则呈现更为复杂的局面。2024 年末 MiCA 全面生效后,多家主流交易所因为合规原因下架 USDT,直接推动非美元稳定币交易规模短期飙升,峰值突破 400 亿美元。

此后市场交易量趋于平稳,整体基数较 MiCA 落地前显著抬升,月度成交规模稳定在 150 亿至 250 亿美元。监管新规催生了此前几乎一片空白的非美元稳定币刚需市场。

稳定币商业支付场景持续扩张

市场结构上最重要的转变或许在于人们实际如何使用稳定币。

稳定币商业支付集中在 C2C 领域

从交易笔数来看,个人对个人(C2C)交易遥遥领先,2025 年全年达 7.895 亿笔。而个人对商户(C2B)交易增速最快,交易笔数从 2024 年的 1.249 亿笔增至 2025 年的 2.846 亿笔,同比增幅达 128%。

稳定币支付卡基础设施增长趋势

稳定币支付卡的数据,同样印证这一趋势。

依托 Rain 技术的稳定币支付卡项目(包括 Etherfi Cash、Kast、Wallbit 等),月度抵押存款额从 2024 年 11 月近乎为零,飙升至 2026 年初的每月超 3 亿美元。该资金虽为支付消费的抵押保证金,并非稳定币直接消费额,但其增长曲线极具代表性:稳定币商业支付场景正在全面崛起。

稳定币流通速度显著提升

每一美元稳定币的流通周转频率正在不断加快。

稳定币流通速度走势

自 2024 年初以来,稳定币流通速度(经调整的月度转账总量 ÷ 流通市值)近乎翻倍,从 2.6 倍攀升至 6 倍。流通速度加快意味着,稳定币交易需求的增长速度,已经超过新增发行速度,存量资金的利用效率大幅提高。

这也是成熟支付网络的核心特征:底层货币被高频使用,而非单纯被动持有。

交易结构转变,支付属性凸显

如果剔除交易、资金流动和兑换机制等行为(稳定币交易的大部分),去年不同参与方之间的支付额估计为 3500 亿至 5500 亿美元。

B2B 稳定币支付占据主导地位

企业对企业(B2B)仍是稳定币支付的核心主力,体量稳居首位。与此同时,个人转账、商户收付等细分场景正在快速扩容。

稳定币支付地理集中度偏高

从地理分布来看,稳定币支付活动分布并不均衡。

亚洲是稳定币支付的主要区域

近三分之二的交易规模来自亚洲,主要来自新加坡、中国香港及日本。

北美市场占比约四分之一,欧洲约 13%。拉美与非洲合计规模极小,整体不足 10 亿美元。

本土稳定币依托全球底层网络运行

非美元稳定币的崛起并非欧洲独有,新兴市场同样快速普及,且驱动逻辑各不相同。

巴西雷亚尔挂钩稳定币 BRLA 的月度转账量变化

巴西就是一个鲜明的例子。巴西雷亚尔支持的稳定币 BRLA 的月交易量从 2023 年初的几乎为零增长到 2026 年初的约 4 亿美元,与巴西即时支付网络 PIX 的整合极大地推动了 BRLA 的普及。

稳定币的跨境支付属性正在减弱

长期以来,稳定币被普遍定义为跨境工具,但跨境交易的实际占比正在持续下降。

境内本土交易占比从 2024 年初的约五成,升至 2026 年初的近七成。这一变化释放明确信号:稳定币的核心价值,不再局限于跨境汇款与外汇兑换,它正逐步依托全球底层网络,转型为本土化日常支付工具。

总结

综合所有数据,一幅清晰的行业图景已然成型,且与大众过往预期截然不同:外界曾普遍认为,稳定币的核心价值集中在跨境转账。现实恰恰相反,稳定币正在深度本土化。目前美元稳定币占据绝对主导,但稳定币并非单纯的美元输出工具。欧元、巴西雷亚尔等本土法币背书的非美元稳定币,市场份额持续攀升。

尽管点对点转账依旧是稳定币第一大使用场景,但日常商业支付的占比正在稳步提升。

每一季度的数据都在不断佐证:稳定币正逐步进化为通用型公共支付基础设施。它生来具备全球化属性,落地应用却愈发本土化。

行业发展仍处于早期阶段,但稳定币的最终形态与发展格局已经日渐清晰。

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