Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, believes that the technical damage inflicted on Bitcoin over the past few months may finally be coming to an end. To support her point, Stockton pointed to a rare long-term signal: Bitcoin showed significant oversold readings on two of Fairlead's preferred long-term indicators—such a combination has historically preceded major turning points, not short-lived rebounds.
"We are already seeing these signs of long-term downtrend exhaustion," she said, adding that momentum is gradually beginning to improve on the long-term timeframe, even though the price remains under pressure.
Stockton's analysis relies on support levels, Fibonacci retracements (a charting tool that identifies potential reversal zones based on prior price swings) and the Ichimoku Cloud model to determine where new demand might emerge. She added:
"Not only is there a measurable state of long-term oversold conditions, but there is also an improvement in long-term momentum."
She also drew a comparison with gold, which recently reclaimed its 50-day moving average during a pullback. Despite this, Stockton argued that Bitcoin has "a better chance of forming a significant low" than gold at the moment, characterizing the current situation as exceptionally favorable, given how deep and prolonged the decline has already been.
A Difficult August for Bitcoin and Ether
This forecast comes at a genuinely uncomfortable time for holders, given that Bitcoin spent much of the week trading around $63,000, remaining below all major daily moving averages (including the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day lines).
Furthermore, the Fear & Greed Index—a widely followed gauge of sentiment in the crypto market—continues to hover at 34, squarely in the "Fear" zone, as the protracted process of tokenization rule development by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has exacerbated bearish sentiment.
Stockton does not limit her theory to Bitcoin alone, extending the concept of a "major low" specifically to Ether. "The good news is we may have already seen that major low," Stockton said, commenting on the Ether chart as part of a broader technical discussion that also covered Solana, XRP, and Hyperliquid beyond Bitcoin.
This analysis is significant because Stockton has previously argued that smaller tokens tend to bottom and top in sync with Bitcoin, making these two largest assets useful indicators for assessing the overall market condition. If Bitcoin and Ether are indeed simultaneously concluding long-term downtrend exhaustion, it would represent one of the most significant confirmations that technical analysts look for ahead of a new cycle, not just another short-term bounce.
What Comes Next
From the outside, Stockton's concept seems built on long-term signals precisely because it may take weeks or months for them to translate into a sustained trend change, and short-term charts can still fluctuate sideways or retest lows even after the long-term signal has turned.
Bitcoin.com News previously reported that Bitcoin held above the $59,100 low as short-term charts signaled an oversold bounce was forming—this was an earlier version of the same conflict between weak short-term structure and improving long-term signals that Stockton is now describing on a much larger timeframe.
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