Augur, one of Ethereum’s earliest decentralized prediction-market and oracle projects, today announced that the second and final phase of its Moon Fork is entering its final days, with the two-month migration window for all holders of its REP token closing on August 1.
REP holders must migrate their tokens 1:1 into an outcome-specific version of REP by August 1, 2026. Migration is one-way and irreversible. Tokens that remain in the legacy Augur universe after the window closes will no longer be able to follow the active protocol and are likely to lose their economic value. After that point, unmigrated REP can no longer be converted.
Migration tooling is available through Augur’s official fork interface at 6.augurfork.eth.limo, together with a step-by-step guide and frequently asked questions.
The fork is a live demonstration of how a decentralized system can defend a truthful outcome without any central authority ruling on the result. That security depends on participation: REP only protects the protocol when its holders act.
A live test of Augur’s economic security model
The Moon Fork began on April 8 with an intentionally escalated dispute over the question: Did the Artemis II mission successfully lift off in the first week of April?
The dispute was initiated by longtime Augur community member Micah Zoltu to test the protocol’s full resolution process under real economic conditions. The correct outcome was “Yes.”
The process was designed to test the mechanism from beginning to end, including participant incentives, capital formation, dispute escalation and token migration. Augur entered the fork after enough REP was committed across successive dispute rounds to activate the protocol’s final resolution backstop.
The fork consists of two phases.
Phase one: The escalation game
From April through early June, REP holders could stake on competing answers through a series of increasingly expensive dispute rounds.
Each round required more capital than the one before it. Participants staking on the ultimately accepted outcome were eligible to earn a return funded by the losing side, creating a financial incentive for the wider market to oppose manipulation.
“Most people will interact with Augur during the escalation game, which lets outcomes battle it out by seeing who can raise more money. The losers pay out the winners. Since it’s easier to raise money on an outcome people believe to be true, that’s the one with the advantage. So in this phase we try to outspend the attacker, and if we can’t, we go to phase two,” said Phill Monastirsky, co-founder of the Lituus Foundation, which stewards Augur.
The escalation process continued until the dispute reached Augur’s fork threshold. Phase one is now complete.
Phase two: Mandatory REP migration
The protocol has now split into separate outcome-specific universes. Every REP holder must choose a universe and migrate their REP into the corresponding token.
“Failing to outspend the attacker, we now try to maximize their cost by forcing them into a worthless token,” said Phill. “The protocol splits into tokens corresponding to the possible outcomes, with 51% required to win. Since future Augur fees only continue on the truthful token, the attacker is forced to move 51% of the token supply into something worthless. In the Augur Lituus design, this rises to near 100%. As long as it costs them more to do that than they gain from misresolving the market, we are safe.”
Future official Augur development funded by the Lituus Foundation will continue on the universe corresponding with the truthful outcome: that Artemis II successfully lifted off during the period specified by the market.
The Foundation has migrated its own holdings and added liquidity to the corresponding token.
What REP holders need to do
REP holders should take the following steps before August 1:
- Hold REP in a self-custodied Ethereum wallet or confirm that their exchange will support the migration
- Visit 6.augurfork.eth.limo/#/migration
- Connect the wallet holding REP
- Migrate REP 1:1 into the outcome-specific token corresponding with the truthful result
- Confirm receipt of the new REP token in the connected wallet
Migration cannot be reversed once completed.
REP held on centralized exchanges may require action by the exchange rather than the individual user. The Lituus Foundation has been working with exchanges to support migration on behalf of their users. Kraken has confirmed support; other exchanges have not, and holders should not assume support unless their exchange states it explicitly. Current exchange-support status is maintained at v3.augur.net/#exchange-support.
Exchange support may change during the migration period. Holders who cannot confirm support should withdraw their REP to a self-custodied wallet and complete the migration directly.
Why the fork matters
Prediction-market platforms ultimately depend on a resolution process to determine which outcome occurred and where funds should be paid.
Many systems rely on companies, committees, token votes, multisigs or discretionary intervention. Augur was designed around a different model: an open economic process in which participants can challenge an outcome and are financially rewarded for defending the result the broader market recognizes as true.
When a dispute reaches the fork stage, REP separates into tokens associated with each possible outcome. Holders decide which universe will carry the protocol’s future economic activity by migrating into it.
The design shifts the security question away from whether a sufficiently wealthy attacker can temporarily influence a vote. Instead, it asks whether an attacker is willing to acquire and sacrifice enough REP to support a false universe that users, developers and liquidity providers may subsequently abandon.
Demonstrating the mechanism behind Augur’s next chapter
The Moon Fork is testing Augur v2’s dispute architecture. Future implementations will differ from the original system, but the live exercise demonstrates the escalation-and-fork pattern underpinning Augur’s continuing oracle research.
That work includes Augur Lituus, a proposed modular resolution layer designed to allow prediction markets and other applications to outsource disputed real-world outcomes to an open, economically secured oracle.
The Lituus Foundation is funding continued work on Augur’s decentralized resolution infrastructure. The prediction-market platform under development through the separate Dark Florist workstream is expected to support the branches created through the fork, rather than the legacy unmigrated REP token.
The live migration provides a practical demonstration of Augur’s core thesis: a prediction market should not depend on any single party having the authority to declare what happened.
Important migration information
Migration deadline: August 1, 2026
Migration ratio: 1:1
Migration status: Mandatory for holders who want to remain part of the active Augur ecosystem
Migration direction: One-way and irreversible
Migration portal: 6.augurfork.eth.limo/#/migration
Holders should consult the official migration interface and Augur channels for the latest technical instructions and exchange-support updates.
About Augur
Augur is a decentralized prediction-market and oracle project originally built on Ethereum. Its dispute system uses open participation and economic incentives, with algorithmic forking as a final backstop, to resolve contested real-world outcomes.
About the Lituus Foundation
The Lituus Foundation stewards the revival and continued development of Augur. The Foundation supports open-source development carrying Augur’s oracle research and engineering forward.
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