ACDC Identified 556 Polymarket Wallets, Allegedly Belonging to Insiders
A new report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) has identified 556 Polymarket wallets, labeled "Orcas," suspected of insider trading. These accounts allegedly place small, targeted bets on low-probability outcomes yet win over 75% of the time. Analyzing 78,496 high-risk bets (over $2,500 on odds of 35 cents or less), ACDC categorized bettors into Orcas, whales, bots, and small fish. While only 14% of high-odds bets win platform-wide, rates rise to 25% on political markets and 52% on military/defense markets. The report highlights that Orcas often place bets first on major military events, with whales and bots quickly copying, potentially broadcasting sensitive signals. Researchers estimate insider profits from military markets alone reached $9.3 million. ACDC argues this poses a national security risk, as blockchain transparency could allow foreign intelligence to act on these market movements. The organization concludes that banning the highest-risk market categories may be the only solution, citing recent insider trading cases involving a U.S. soldier and a Google engineer on Polymarket.
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