如果《清晰法案》(“牛市法案”)近期无法通过,比特币将何去何从?知名首席信息官评估...

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2026-08-07Actualizado a 2026-08-07

Resumen

比特币资产管理公司Bitwise的首席投资官马特·霍根表示,如果旨在为美国加密货币市场建立监管框架的《清晰法案》本周未获通过,可能导致加密货币市场出现短期下跌。霍根在备忘录中指出,法案若不通过,最乐观的情况是市场能迅速消化这一预期。他提到,预测市场对此法案通过概率的预期已大幅下降,这有助于减少市场面临的不确定性。 霍根认为,法案本周通过的可能性较低,更可能的情况是参议院将听证会推迟到九月。他强调,关键点在于投资者需要接受该法案短期内不会通过的现实。霍根表示,若市场能快速将这一因素计入价格,将有助于市场触底并消除不确定性,从而为秋季可能出现的上涨趋势奠定更好基础。 *本文不构成投资建议。

管理加密资产的Bitwise公司首席投资官马特·霍根表示,如果旨在为美国加密货币市场建立监管框架的《清晰法案》本周未能通过,可能会导致加密货币市场短期下跌。

在Bitwise公司首席投资官备忘录中就此问题发表的声明中,霍根指出,如果该法案未能通过,对市场来说最积极的情况将是投资者迅速将这种可能性计入其考量之中。

霍根表示,对《清晰法案》通过概率的预期大幅降低,特别是在Polymarket平台上,可能有助于减少市场面临的监管不确定性。

霍根发表了以下言论:

“如果《清晰法案》本周未能通过,最理想的情况是,预测市场上其通过概率至少跌至10%,这将让我们摆脱这种不确定性。在这种情况下,市场可能会短暂震荡,但这将使我们为秋季的上升趋势处于更有利的位置。”

据Bitwise代表称,虽然市场的最佳情况是该法案在本周获得通过,但这似乎不太可能。霍根表示,更可能的情况是将参议院听证会推迟到九月进行,而当前的事态发展正指向这一点。

霍根表示,关键在于投资者要接受《清晰法案》在短期内不会获得通过这一事实。

“我曾希望市场能迅速将其计入价格,并认识到《清晰法案》目前不会发生。这将有助于市场触底并消除不确定性。”

*本文不构成投资建议。

Criptos en tendencia

Preguntas relacionadas

Q谁是Bitwise公司的首席投资官,他对加密货币监管法案有何看法?

ABitwise公司的首席投资官是马特·霍根。他认为,如果美国旨在为加密货币市场建立监管框架的《清晰法案》本周未能通过,可能会导致加密货币市场出现短期下滑。

Q如果《清晰法案》未能在本周通过,根据马特·霍根的观点,市场可能出现的最积极情况是什么?

A最积极的情况是,投资者能迅速将这一可能性计入价格预期中。特别是如果预测市场Polymarket上对法案通过的概率预期大幅下降,这将有助于消除市场上的监管不确定性。

Q马特·霍根预测《清晰法案》在国会通过的可能性如何?

A马特·霍根认为,虽然市场的最佳情况是法案在本周通过,但这看起来不太可能。他认为更可能的情况是参议院的听证会推迟到九月进行,而目前的事态发展也指向这一方向。

Q马特·霍根认为,对于市场复苏的关键是什么?

A他认为关键在于投资者要接受《清晰法案》在短期内不会获得通过的现实。一旦市场将这一情况充分计入价格,有助于市场触底并消除不确定性,为未来的上涨趋势奠定基础。

Q文章中提到的“Polymarket”是什么?它在评估《清晰法案》时扮演什么角色?

APolymarket是一个预测市场平台。在文中,它被用作一个衡量市场对《清晰法案》通过可能性的预期指标。如果该平台上对法案通过的概率预期大幅下降,可以被视为市场在消化这一负面消息,从而有助于减少不确定性。

Lecturas Relacionadas

Upbit is Anxious: A Hasty Counterattack Aimed at Regaining Stablecoin Market Share

Title: Upbit's Rushed Counterattack to Reclaim Stablecoin Market Share Facing a dramatic shift in South Korea's stablecoin market, leading exchange Upbit launched a promotional campaign from July 26 to August 9, waiving the 0.05% trading fee for stablecoins paired with the Korean Won (KRW) and rapidly listing new stablecoins like RLUSD and USDG. This move is a direct response to its plummeting market share in this sector. Historically a duopoly with Bithumb, the market has been reshaped since October 2025 when Coinone permanently removed fees for USDC trading. By June 2026, Coinone led with 34.8% of stablecoin volume, followed by Bithumb (31.1%) and Upbit (30.1%). This contrasts sharply with the overall crypto market, where Upbit commands 60%. The data shows stablecoin demand is highly sensitive to fees, as users primarily buy them to transfer capital overseas for derivatives trading or forex arbitrage. South Korean exchanges have seen a net outflow of stablecoins for 18 consecutive months, totaling approximately 14.9 trillion KRW, underscoring their role as a cross-border capital conduit. Upbit's limited-time promotion initially boosted its daily stablecoin volume by 162%, but the surge was almost entirely in USDT (98.1% of volume). The newly listed stablecoins saw negligible, fleeting interest. Furthermore, the promotional effect quickly waned in the second week, with volume dropping 33% on weekdays. A concurrent weakening of the KRW also contributed to the trading spike, independent of the fee waiver. The analysis suggests that once the promotion ends, Upbit is unlikely to retain its temporary gains unless it matches Coinone's permanent zero-fee policy, forcing a choice between market share and fee revenue. Upbit's strategic push may be less about immediate profit and more about preparing for future regulatory shifts. With South Korea's *Digital Asset Basic Act* on the horizon, which will regulate KRW-backed stablecoins, and following Dunamu's (Upbit's parent) integration into Naver Financial to build a payment ecosystem, securing a dominant position in the dollar stablecoin distribution channel holds long-term strategic value. However, potential regulatory conflicts could prevent Upbit from listing a future Naver-issued KRW stablecoin, making the current fight for dollar stablecoin flow even more critical.

marsbitHace 6 hora(s)

Upbit is Anxious: A Hasty Counterattack Aimed at Regaining Stablecoin Market Share

marsbitHace 6 hora(s)

Trading

Spot

Artículos destacados

Cómo comprar COMP

¡Bienvenido a HTX.com! Hemos hecho que comprar Compound (COMP) sea simple y conveniente. Sigue nuestra guía paso a paso para iniciar tu viaje de criptos.Paso 1: crea tu cuenta HTXUtiliza tu correo electrónico o número de teléfono para registrarte y obtener una cuenta gratuita en HTX. Experimenta un proceso de registro sin complicaciones y desbloquea todas las funciones.Obtener mi cuentaPaso 2: ve a Comprar cripto y elige tu método de pagoTarjeta de crédito/débito: usa tu Visa o Mastercard para comprar Compound (COMP) al instante.Saldo: utiliza fondos del saldo de tu cuenta HTX para tradear sin problemas.Terceros: hemos agregado métodos de pago populares como Google Pay y Apple Pay para mejorar la comodidad.P2P: tradear directamente con otros usuarios en HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): ofrecemos servicios personalizados y tipos de cambio competitivos para los traders.Paso 3: guarda tu Compound (COMP)Después de comprar tu Compound (COMP), guárdalo en tu cuenta HTX. Alternativamente, puedes enviarlo a otro lugar mediante transferencia blockchain o utilizarlo para tradear otras criptomonedas.Paso 4: tradear Compound (COMP)Tradear fácilmente con Compound (COMP) en HTX's mercado spot. Simplemente accede a tu cuenta, selecciona tu par de trading, ejecuta tus trades y monitorea en tiempo real. Ofrecemos una experiencia fácil de usar tanto para principiantes como para traders experimentados.

356 Vistas totalesPublicado en 2024.12.13Actualizado en 2026.06.02

Cómo comprar COMP

Discusiones

Bienvenido a la comunidad de HTX. Aquí puedes mantenerte informado sobre los últimos desarrollos de la plataforma y acceder a análisis profesionales del mercado. A continuación se presentan las opiniones de los usuarios sobre el precio de COMP (COMP).

活动图片