NFT数据观察:当前市场是今年最低迷的时刻,但无法判断是否为底部

链捕手Publicado a 2022-08-31Actualizado a 2022-08-31

Resumen

蓝筹NFT指数连续5周下跌后,在今年的最低值附近得到暂时的“支撑”,与此同时,我们也看到大部分蓝筹的价格都有较明显的反弹。

蓝筹NFT指数连续5周下跌后,在今年的最低值附近得到暂时的“支撑”,与此同时,我们也看到大部分蓝筹的价格都有较明显的反弹。

本周市场趋势

Weekly NFT Market Volume

最近两周加密市场迎来了整体下跌,BTC的价格从$25000跌至$19500,跌幅达20%,ETH也从2000跌至1400,跌幅接近30%。

NFT市场相比于传统加密市场并没有好转,本周NFT交易量较上周再次下降9%,已经到达今年的最低区间。我们不能确定现在是否为NFT市场的底部,可以肯定的是“现在是今年NFT市场最不活跃的时期”。

从较大的时间跨度上来看,整个NFT市场的交易量依然徘徊在较低区间,并没有强势反弹的迹象。

Weekly NFT Market Traders (Source: echoo.substack.com)

本周参与交易的人数较上周变化不大,市场的下跌并没有造成“抄底”人数的上升,反而买卖的净值差有扩大的趋势,交易的总人数区间也开始逐渐收敛,这证明市场上参与交易的人正在变少,大多数交易者处于“观望”态度。

其次卖出者比买入者多1.2倍,这证明目前市场上大多数更倾向于“卖出”。

Blue Chip Index (Source: echoo.substack.com)

蓝筹NFT指数连续5周下跌后,在今年的最低值附近得到暂时的“支撑”,与此同时,我们也看到大部分蓝筹的价格都有较明显的反弹。

在上周我们给出的建议和买入信号都得到了成功验证,另外最近较火的NFT如DigiDaigaku、Pudgy Penguins等,Echoo也均在周报中提前给出了信号。

值得注意的是,目前的反弹力度相比于25周较小,而且有走平的趋势,再加上整体市场的不景气,如果有想长线投资NFT的朋友需要耐心等待更强烈的反弹信号出现。

Weekly Trend On The Net Value Of Whale Capital (Source: echoo.substack.com)

在本周,巨鲸流入资金但再次转为负值,并且波动越来越小,大部分的巨鲸正在“离场”。

虽然巨鲸的行为相比于NFT市场具有提前性,但在目前市场整体交易量萎靡时,巨鲸的整体流动资金规模仍然较低,这代表了巨鲸更倾向于小资金规模参与NFT投资。

这也像我们多次强调的:当前NFT市场受到巨鲸的影响很微弱,更多的是散户在主导交易。

指数信号

1.巨鲸上周抄底的NFT

下表为巨鲸的买入前20名NFT,详细的购入数量及平均成本如下:

NFTs Bought By Whales In The 35th Week

2.蓝筹的NFT买卖信号

本期Echoo Research为大家提供的指标是蓝筹的NFT买卖信号,对于买卖行为具有一定的参考性。

Buy-Sell Signals Of Blue Chip NFTs In The 35th Week

上周绝大部分蓝筹价格触发了买入信号,在反弹后大多数蓝筹NFT价格波动变小,出现了“不操作”的信号。

指标说明

RSI Strategy:根据RSI的买卖相对强弱的特性而设计的买卖信号。

简单使用方法:在波动区间下方为买入信号,在波动区间上方为卖出信号,偏离度越大信号越强烈。

3.蓝筹集合的SMA趋势

近期蓝筹NFT的走势有反弹的迹象,打破了连续下行趋势,但反弹力度不够大,未能突破SMA(20)。

SMA Trend Of Blue Chip NFTs In The 35th Week

指标说明

该指标综合了蓝筹NFT的市值,运用均线进行计算,用来反映NFT大盘的趋势。

SMA:反映短周期于长周期的趋势。

简单使用方法:短周期线从下方穿过长周期线时为买入信号,短周期线从上方穿过长周期线时为卖出信号。

Lecturas Relacionadas

Standard Chartered Bank’s 50-Fold Fantasy: Predicting AAVE to Reach $3,500

Standard Chartered Bank has issued an optimistic research report predicting that the AAVE token could surge 50-fold to $3,500 by 2030. This forecast is based on the projection that the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi will grow 37x to approximately $2.7 trillion, driven by stablecoin expansion and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). The bank's model links Aave's potential valuation directly to its protocol revenue, which is primarily driven by net interest margins. The report highlights Aave's current dominant position, noting it captures over 80% of the net earnings ("protocol retained earnings") in the lending sector while holding only about half of its TVL. It also points to the recent launch of the Aave V4 architecture and a healthy revenue stream of $142 million in 2025 as positive fundamentals. Grayscale's separate analysis, applying traditional valuation metrics like DCF, concluded AAVE is currently undervalued. However, the article notes significant challenges. Aave's peer-to-pool lending model suffers from inherent capital inefficiency, with an estimated $52 million annual "deadweight loss" due to idle funds needed for liquidity buffers. This structural flaw was exposed during the April KelpDAO exploit, which locked a WETH pool at 100% utilization for days. Emerging protocols like Morpho, with more efficient point-to-point models, are cited as growing competitive threats. In summary, while institutional forecasts paint a macro picture of massive growth fueled by RWA adoption, Aave's path forward hinges on addressing its core structural limitations and competitive pressures within the evolving DeFi lending landscape.

链捕手Hace 14 min(s)

Standard Chartered Bank’s 50-Fold Fantasy: Predicting AAVE to Reach $3,500

链捕手Hace 14 min(s)

Tidal Investment: We Remain Bullish on the AI Industry Chain, But the Reasons Have Changed

Tidal Investment remains optimistic about the AI industry chain, but the rationale has shifted. The market narrative has changed. While recent large-scale IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and major fundraising plans by tech giants like Alphabet and Meta have caused some nervousness, this isn't a sign of an AI peak. The focus has moved from the initial question of AI's viability to the sustainability of massive investment cycles. The key players—primarily the major cloud providers—are not slowing down; their capital expenditure (Capex) guidance for 2026 has been increased across the board (e.g., Alphabet to $180B, Amazon to $200B). This investment cycle is proving resilient and difficult to stop. Unlike traditional hardware cycles, current AI Capex is distributed across multiple physical layers—computing, memory, networking, and critically, power infrastructure. Bottlenecks are shifting from chips to elements like electricity, transformers, and cooling systems, which have much longer lead times and cannot be easily pre-built like fiber optics during the dot-com bubble. Supply chain data (e.g., Eaton's 240% YoY data center orders) confirms this broad-based, project-driven expansion. Market concerns are acknowledged but viewed differently. First, while Capex growth currently outpaces revenue growth, raising ROI questions, this mirrors the early scaling phase of cloud computing itself. A change in view would require concrete signals like downward Capex revisions or missed AI product targets, which haven't materialized by mid-2026. Second, comparisons to the 2000 dot-com bust are flawed. That crash was driven by a massive, parallel oversupply of cheap capacity (fiber). The current cycle faces *supply constraints* in critical, capital-intensive physical infrastructure that cannot be overbuilt as easily. In conclusion, the wave of fundraising reflects the next, more complex act of the AI story. Physical bottlenecks and sustained high Capex plans suggest this is not the finale but an ongoing, capital-intensive build-out phase. The script has changed, but the play is far from over.

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

Tidal Investment: We Remain Bullish on the AI Industry Chain, But the Reasons Have Changed

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

Tidal Investment: We Remain Bullish on the AI Industry Chain, But for Different Reasons Now

Tidal Investments remains optimistic about the AI industry chain, but the rationale has shifted. The market is concerned about massive concurrent fundraising by tech giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, Alphabet, and Meta, fearing an AI peak. However, the authors argue this signals the next act of AI development, not its end. Capital expenditure (Capex) from major cloud providers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) continues to surge aggressively into 2026. This investment cycle is more resilient than past hardware cycles due to its scale and complexity. Bottlenecks have shifted from chips to critical physical infrastructure like power grids, transformers, cooling, and data center construction—areas with long lead times and limited capacity for rapid expansion. Supply chain data (e.g., Eaton's orders) confirms substantial, tangible progress. Key market concerns are addressed: 1. **ROI vs. Capex Growth**: While Capex growth outpaces revenue, the authors note cloud giants have historically overcome similar phases through scale. The cycle will only be in danger if Capex guidance is cut, orders are canceled, or AI product demand falters—none of which are currently observed. 2. **Comparison to the 2000 Dot-com Bubble**: Unlike the telecom bubble, where cheap, oversupplied fiber crashed prices, AI infrastructure (especially power) is constrained, customized, and subject to lengthy approvals, making a similar supply glut and crash unlikely. In conclusion, the wave of fundraising reflects the immense, ongoing capital needs for AI's next phase, constrained by slow-moving physical bottlenecks. The AI cycle is not over; the script has simply changed.

链捕手Hace 1 hora(s)

Tidal Investment: We Remain Bullish on the AI Industry Chain, But for Different Reasons Now

链捕手Hace 1 hora(s)

Grayscale: These 15 Profitable Crypto Protocols Are Severely Undervalued

Grayscale Research identifies 15 top-revenue crypto protocols trading at significant valuation discounts, with many at single-digit or even 1x revenue multiples. Protocols like Pump.fun, PancakeSwap, and Meteora have market capitalizations roughly equal to their annual revenue. The report argues these financially-focused protocols (DEXs, lending, staking) are fundamentally undervalued and could benefit from the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, expected as soon as next month. This legislation aims to clarify digital asset regulation, potentially reducing institutional barriers and driving on-chain activity. The analysis breaks down the protocols into three groups: the "1x Club" (market cap ≈ revenue), mid-tier protocols with 3-9x multiples (e.g., Aave, Lido, Jupiter), and high-multiple protocols like Hyperliquid (15x) and Uniswap (37x), where valuation reflects future potential rather than current cash flows. Grayscale applies a traditional DCF model to Aave, suggesting a one-year price target of ~$175, representing ~130% upside from current levels. The report notes a risk-off macro environment since the Iran conflict has further compressed valuations, creating a potential entry window. The conclusion highlights that while the valuation data presents an intriguing opportunity, the investment thesis is contingent on the CLARITY Act's passage and subsequent institutional capital flows. Investors are cautioned to consider Grayscale's inherent conflict of interest as a crypto asset manager with products tied to these assets.

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

Grayscale: These 15 Profitable Crypto Protocols Are Severely Undervalued

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片