【重磅解读】 BTC主力抛售占比持续超过50%，ETH走出短线颓势

火币资讯Publicado a 2022-08-16Actualizado a 2022-08-17

Resumen

BTC震荡空间极度收缩，预期走势已经开始向下。

1、 BTC回撤提示调整信号

BTC在4小时图中频繁震荡运行，价格难以在2.5万美元附近形成突破，形态上已经不断验证喇叭口扩张趋势。图中显示，BTC不仅在喇叭口形态的下限，而且处在布林线中轨以下运行，典型的看跌形态正在确认中。交易量方面，BTC成交量迹象收缩，震荡占比RSI低至45，都验证了短线调整信号。

一般看来，短线交易可等待BTC跌破布林线下轨，进一步验证喇叭口扩张形态后，可确认下跌趋势。

2、主力抛压占比维持高位

BTC 的主力抛压维持高位运行，交易所的巨鲸交易占比已经反弹至0.54附近。并且，近一周内主力交易占比始终维持在较高水平，意味着抛售压力不断提升以后，BTC价格上的滞涨表现已经体现出来。

目前来看，BTC的抛售增长相对缓慢，但是积累的过程相对明确。接下来BTC继续从2.5万美元回调的可能性较大，一旦回撤可关注2.25万美元和2.1万美元的支撑效果。

3、 BTC巨鲸交易数量持续回调

随着链上巨鲸交易数量持续回调，指标数值已经达到了6个月内的最低水平，意味着主力活跃度明显出现回落。在没有大资金参与的情况下，BTC上涨乏力，尽显调整预期。数值上看，8月15日链上大额交易笔数下降到了59笔，交易数量超过2.95万枚BTC。相比近3个月内的平均水平可达140笔，目前的交易量的确持续了较大回落。链上巨鲸交易量的回落与BTC价格上涨乏力同步持续，提示调整步伐加快。

4、ETH在2次确认回调信号

ETH的价格回撤节奏较快进行，4小时K线图中显示，价格连续2次持续了回落跌破布林线中轨的情况，意味着本次下跌确认的效果较好。接下来，ETH不仅价格低于布林线中轨，而且处在斐波那契61.8%对应的1910美元的压力位下方，进一步走低的预期较高。4小时K线图中，ETH的短线波动强度较小，缩量期间价格有向下滑落的可能性。

5、交易所ETH出现增长迹象

从交易所ETH的数量来看，交易所的ETH数量维持低位运行，近期数值维持在802.8万附近。相比历史上2018年3月的低点898.5万更低一些。这说明，交易所ETH的数量依然较少，但是近期已经持续了回升迹象，波段增长数量达到了113万枚ETH。可见，ETH继续流入交易所的可能性已经提高。流入交易所的ETH增多，通常会增加抛售压力。

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