特朗普旗下 Truth Social 杀进预测市场，与 Polymarket 正面竞争

深潮Publicado a 2025-10-28Actualizado a 2025-10-29

Truth Predict 推出之际，Polymarket 正计划重返美国市场。

撰文：Joel Khalili，连线杂志

编译：Saoirse，Foresight News

Truth Social 是由美国总统唐纳德・特朗普及其家族持有多数股权的社交媒体平台，该平台正推出一项基于加密货币的博彩服务，将与广受欢迎的 Polymarket 展开直接竞争。

这项名为「Truth Predict」的新服务，将允许 Truth Social 用户以加密货币为投注本金，对特定事件的结果进行预测，涵盖体育比赛、政治竞选乃至经济变动等领域。Truth Social 由上市公司特朗普媒体与科技集团（Trump Media & Technology Group，TMTG）运营。

通常，单个预测会以二元问题的形式呈现，例如：「泰勒・斯威夫特（Taylor Swift）会在 10 月 2 日前发行新的原创歌曲吗？」或「巴塞罗那会赢得欧洲冠军联赛吗？」

2024 年美国大选前夕，预测市场首次进入主流视野。其支持者称，这类市场是传统民意调查的更优替代方案，是更高效的「真相来源」。

特朗普媒体与科技集团首席执行官 Devin Nunes 在一份声明中表示：「通过 Truth Predict，我们正在推动信息民主化，让美国民众能够借助群体智慧，将言论自由转化为可行动的前瞻性判断。」

Truth Predict 是与加密货币交易所 Crypto.com 的关联机构合作推出的。目前，预测市场领域主要由 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 主导，这两家公司近期均以数十亿美元的高估值完成了融资。

Truth Predict 推出之际，Polymarket 正计划重返美国市场 —— 此前在乔・拜登执政期间，该平台曾被迫退出美国。2022 年，美国监管机构商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）指控 Polymarket 运营未注册的衍生品交易市场，Polymarket 与该机构达成和解，退出美国市场成为和解条件之一。

2024 年 11 月，Polymarket 首席执行官 Shayne Coplan 的住所遭到美国联邦调查局（FBI）突袭。美国司法部（DOJ）当时正调查该平台是否违反和解协议中的禁令，持续接受美国居民的投注（Coplan 未被逮捕或指控）。

2025 年 1 月特朗普重返白宫后，情况发生了变化。在特朗普政府执政下，监管机构已停止对知名加密货币公司的诉讼，司法部也指示检察官对部分加密货币相关犯罪「睁一只眼闭一只眼」。

同年 7 月，彭博社报道称，司法部已结束对 Polymarket 的调查，且未提起任何指控，为该公司重返美国市场扫清了障碍。

加密货币初创公司 Sarcophagus 的创始人 Zach Hamilton 在接受《连线》采访时表示：「如果要找出（加密货币预测市场）能重返美国的一个关键原因，那必然是特朗普政府 —— 说白了，就是唐纳德・特朗普本人。」

其实在 Truth Predict 推出之前，特朗普家族就已在美国预测市场的发展布局中持有经济利益。

2025 年 1 月，小唐纳德・特朗普（Donald Trump Jr.）以战略顾问身份加入 Kalshi；同年 8 月，Polymarket 获得了风险投资公司 1789 资本的投资，而小唐纳德・特朗普正是该公司的合伙人。作为交易的一部分，他还加入了 Polymarket 的顾问委员会。

就在 Polymarket 寻求重返美国市场之际，特朗普家族与该平台建立了关联。这一情况受到了批评人士的密切关注，他们认为这笔投资可能构成利益冲突。批评者称，这笔交易为特朗普家族创造了机会，使其能从特朗普政府推动的政策变动中获利。

「旋转门项目」（Revolving Door Project，一家致力于监督民选官员行为的机构）执行董事 Jeff Hauser 表示：「没人会说，在资本主义国家，总统的家人不能从事正常的资本主义活动。但 Polymarket 正处于激烈的政治争议之中，因此这笔投资反映出重大的利益冲突 —— 而且这种冲突本是可以避免的。」

白宫新闻秘书 Karoline Leavitt 在给《连线》的一份声明中回应：「总统及其家人从未、也绝不会涉及利益冲突。」

截至目前，Polymarket、特朗普媒体与科技集团（TMTG）和 1789 资本均未回应置评请求。

Truth Predict 的推出，还可能导致特朗普家族商业帝国的不同分支陷入直接竞争。

加密货币风投公司 CoinFund 的管理合伙人 Chris Perkins 表示：「从风投的角度来看，我们很多人都不愿投资存在竞争关系的项目，会尽量避免这种情况 —— 我们会努力找出『品类赢家』。」

事实上，与特朗普家族相关的企业早已在运营相互竞争的比特币财库公司；2025 年 6 月，还曾就「哪家企业有权推出『官方』特朗普品牌加密钱包」爆发过争议。

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